参考一下拼多多和瑞幸，也是要狠狠大跌后才能有目前的翻倍行情。按照港股短期状况，美团或药明估值都贵了，且最重要下跌逻辑还未结束，没有足够的空间吸引机构进场。美团要看抖音带来的竞争，药明则最决于宏观环境，虽然后者的因素较容易好转，但在这次指引变脸下，可能需要时间让机构重新建立信心。

又是港股痛苦的一天！后市继续多灾多难？

Competition with Douyin has already begun to erode MEITUAN-W's profits, and the future performance growth is also not optimistic. The recent large-scale personnel adjustments and widespread reshuffling of personnel imply MEITUAN-W's anxiety in market competition!

Meituan "Looking Inward"

半导体行业分析师普遍认为，随着个人电脑和智能手机市场库存调整消退，加上人工智能工作负载的需求增加，明年半导体市场将恢复增长。根据 Gartner 的预测，2024 年全球半导体收入预计将增长 16.8%，达到 6240 亿美元。然而，Gartner 也指出，2023 年全球半导体收入将下降 11%。分析师表示，需求与供应平衡以及人工智能处理器和内存市场的增长将推动半导体行业在 2024 年反弹。

芯片，全面复苏？

Meizu announced that it will enter the automotive industry and launch its first new energy vehicle, the MEIZU DreamCar MX. This move is one of the trends of smartphone manufacturers collectively entering the automotive industry. There are three main reasons why smartphone companies are venturing into car manufacturing: first, the automotive industry is gradually shifting towards electrification, and smartphone manufacturers have the ability to enter the electric vehicle manufacturing field; second, the new energy vehicle market is maintaining growth, providing manufacturers with greater growth potential; third, smartphones and cars are closely connected as two major consumer electronic products, and smartphone manufacturers entering the new energy vehicle industry can meet the needs of mobile travel and smart living.

Meizu's entry into the automotive industry is fueled by GEELY AUTO's courage | Insight Research

In 2023, the size of China's responsible investment market exceeded CNY 33 trillion, maintaining a high growth trend. The size of the green credit market was CNY 28.58 trillion, with a total sustainable securities investment of approximately CNY 3.66 trillion and sustainable equity investment of approximately CNY 0.82 trillion. In terms of institutional responsible investment practices, public fund institutions are leading other types of institutions. The number of ESG investment products has significantly increased, but the scale has declined. Overall, ESG-themed products outperform ordinary products in terms of "ESG volume".

Responsibility Investment Forum | China Responsible Investment Annual Report 2023: China's responsible investment scale exceeds CNY 33 trillion.

汇丰预计明年底内地 GDP 增长 5.2%，认为市场过度担心内地经济放缓风险。港股估值已反映很多悲观预期，明年受惠外围改善，对明年底恒指目标看好，而且中央政府应会加推更多房地产板块扶持政策。

市场过度悲观？明年底恒指目标 19890 点！

高盛策略师建议卖出明年 6 月到期的 SOFR 相关看涨期权。专家指出，资金流动力已经耗尽，有理由增加对冲投资组合，预计下周可能出现波动触发因素！

美股年末还会涨吗？华尔街狂泼冷水：反弹资金流动力已完全耗尽！

美国货运巨头 Yellow Corp 通过出售资产筹集逾 20 亿美元。（华尔街日报）

After both Bitcoin and gold rose on Monday, the price of gold plummeted while Bitcoin continued to rise. This is because Bitcoin is seen as a victory for risky assets rather than a safe haven asset. The increasing expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has heightened investors' interest in risky assets. Investors currently hold record levels of cash and are eager to make new investments, which has contributed to the rise of risky assets such as Bitcoin. The rise of Bitcoin is mainly driven by the optimistic sentiment that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may soon approve ETFs for direct investment in cryptocurrencies, unrelated to macroeconomic factors. The rise in gold prices does not seem to be as strong as Bitcoin, and the price of gold has yet to break through the high point of 1980.

Why did gold prices plummet and Bitcoin continue to rise after both broke through on Monday?

全球药企竞相进军减肥药市场，由 GLP-1 引爆的减肥风潮已席卷全球，巨大的需求打开了千亿美元级别的市场空间。国内外企业纷纷抢滩，诺和诺德与礼来领跑，罗氏则是最新加入的跨国大药企。国内药企信达进度领先，恒瑞、华东医药、石药集团、豪森和中国生物制药等也纷纷下注。整个减肥药赛道的竞争激烈，成为全球金融编辑关注的焦点。

全球药企的减肥梦

According to Wall Street Journal, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times next year, with a predicted reduction of 1.25 percentage points, equivalent to five rate cuts of 25 basis points each. Despite Powell's dampening remarks on rate cuts, the market still believes that there is a greater possibility of interest rates falling below 4% next year. A stock strategist from Morgan Stanley stated that the Fed has not truly changed its guidance during this period, but the views of the bond market are crucial. Deutsche Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates seven times next year, with a reduction of 175 basis points.

How strong is the dovish expectation? The market prices in 5 interest rate cuts next year.

药明生物的项目增长缓慢和竞争对手强劲是导致业绩下调的原因之一。市场最为紧绷的情绪点到底在哪？困住 CXO 龙头、纷纷下调业绩预期的枷锁是何？被寒气侵蚀后的 CXO，何时才能恢复元气？

药明生物暴跌，CXO 全线飘绿背后：缺少 “预言家” 的狼人杀

罗宾汉市场公司：11 月加密货币名义交易量比 2023 年 10 月水平高出约 75%。

金价在过去几个月持续上涨，创下历史新高，引起了市场的关注。市场解释指出，此次上涨主要是由于美联储降息预期增强所致。尽管实际利率上升和通胀预期稳定应该导致黄金的吸引力下降，但金价却呈现出强势。过去的数据显示，金价与实际利率之间的关联在 2008 年后变得越来越显著，而在 2004-2006 年的加息周期中出现了 “格林斯潘之谜”。因此，金价走势仍需要密切关注。

金价的 “格林斯潘之谜”

Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche has acquired weight loss drug developer Carmot Therapeutics for $3.1 billion, sparking competition in the global weight loss drug market. Roche will pay $2.7 billion as an initial payment, with the potential to pay up to an additional $400 million based on specific targets. Carmot's products include gut hormone candidate drugs for treating obesity in both diabetic and non-diabetic patients, with the most promising being CT-388, a GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist. Roche's goal is to make CT-388 the best obesity drug and compete with similar drugs from companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Swiss pharmaceutical giant enters the weight loss drug market! Roche acquires Carmot for $3.1 billion.

The growth of electric car sales in Europe is slowing down, with consumer dissatisfaction with factors such as range, charging convenience, and price becoming limiting factors. German car manufacturers have lowered prices to promote sales, and the inadequate charging infrastructure in Europe is also a limiting factor. Companies such as Tesla, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz predict an unfavorable market outlook.

Demand drops significantly + inadequate charging infrastructure, the European electric vehicle industry is in decline

萨尔瓦多总统表示，随着加密货币上涨至 42000 美元区域，该国的比特币投资现已盈利超过 300 万美元。

萨尔瓦多总统称该国的 BTC 投资盈利已超过 300 万美元

胜利证券与 EMC Labs 宣布推出合规比特币基金 Victory EMC BTC Cycle Fund，已获香港证监会批准投入市场。该基金面向合资格专业投资者，以数据挖掘和产业研究为基础，对比特币进行主动周期性配置。胜利证券是香港首家获得虚拟资产交易、咨询和资产管理服务牌照的持牌法团，此次合作将进一步巩固其在虚拟资产领域的领先地位。

胜利证券与 EMC Labs 联合推出合规比特币基金

2024 年，券商普遍认为中国经济将释放更好的活力，政策将总体偏向扩张，需求回暖将带动 CPI 和 PPI 温和回升，出口有望处于修复周期。预计 2024 年全年实际 GDP 增速可能为 5% 左右。券商认为明年财政和准财政将继续发力，货币政策利率趋下行，降准和降息都有可能。预计 2024 年金融市场形势将边际好转。

十大券商 2024 年经济展望：中国经济 “活力释放” 稳经济政策 “总体偏扩张”

大盘已走成了下降通道，需要保存实力，不要回撤过大。增量资金入市对市场带来一丝光亮，但量和想象中差距太大。美联储将 “谨慎行事”，对通胀降至 2% 有更多进展持谨慎态度。药明生物在经营交流会上预计药物开发营收下降 1...

智通港股解盘 | CXO 逻辑生变遭遇滑铁卢 恒指空头排列宜保存实力

比特币飙升至 41800 美元，推动了美国加密货币相关股票的涨幅。Coinbase、MicroStrategy、Riot Platforms 等股票涨幅均在 9% 至 19% 之间。交易员对美联储降息的信心增强，同时人们对比特币现货 ETF 的批准也持乐观态度。比特币今年已经飙升了大约 150%。根据 Bloomberg 分析师的预计，SEC 最早将于明年 1 月批准比特币现货 ETF。

美股异动 | 比特币飙升至 41800 美元 加密货币股盘前大涨

Bitcoin Vault 宣布在 P2B 加密货币交易所上线。

比特币触及 42000 美元，日内大涨 5.6%，续刷 2022 年 4 月以来新高。

格灵深瞳股价因其自主研发的跨年龄同亲缘人脸比对算法在寻亲中的成功应用而上涨。该公司的主营业务包括智慧金融和城市管理，其中智慧金融占据主导地位，为农业银行、建设银行等客户提供服务。城市管理业务主要涵盖治安、交通及社区管理。与海康威视不同，格灵深瞳的城市安防业务更注重软件和算法。公司目前的策略是售卖软件系统，由下游集成商进行集成后再卖给政府部门。公司表示智慧金融、城市管理和商业零售等领域都是下游落地场景，但有的领域已有成熟产品，有的还在试点阶段。

助亿万富豪成功寻亲股价起飞 ，格灵深瞳年内能否扭亏

国家新闻出版署发布 11 月国产网络游戏审批信息，共 87 款游戏获批。

Morgan Stanley predicts that the price of gold is expected to rebound significantly in 2024, reaching $2,300. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties will drive the price of gold higher. At the same time, Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil will remain in the range of $80-90 per barrel next year, about $10 higher than the current level. Despite the poor performance of commodities this year, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the future trends of gold and oil in the next two years. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 will trigger a significant rebound in the price of gold, pushing it to new highs. Morgan Stanley predicts that as real yields decline, the price of gold may rise.

J.P. Morgan's 2024 Commodity Outlook: Fed Rate Cuts Boosting Gold, Expected to Break Through $2300

According to the data from Zhitong App, as of the close on December 4th, there were 49 stocks that hit a 52-week high. Among them, BESTSTUDY EDU, GOLDEN THROAT, and MS GROUP HLDGS had the highest growth rates, which were 31.63%, 24.75%, and 20.93% respectively. In addition, there were 209 stocks that hit a 52-week low. Among them, YOUJU HOLDINGS, KEEP, and JINTAI ENERGY HOLDINGS had the lowest decline rates, which were -25.37%, -24.30%, and -20.00% respectively.

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock 52-week Highs and Lows Statistics | December 4th

金价创高，黄金 ETF 热度升温。近期黄金 ETF 净值创历史新高，规模回升。最近一月 14 只黄金 ETF 流入 5000 万份份额，约 2.5 亿。最近一季度流入 3.57 亿份，半年流入 10.2 亿份。新增黄金 ETF 集中在 9 月，包括华夏、广发、富国、工银瑞信等 10 家公募基金。部分基金公司所管产品未得市场认同。黄金 ETF 再度受到关注。

金价创高，黄金 ETF 热度升温

韩国散户投资者偏爱美国科技股杠杆型交易所交易基金 (ETF)，持有特斯拉和 FAANG 等股票。其中，Direxion-3 倍做多半导体 ETF 近期涨幅达 140%，而 Direion Daily-3 倍做多 20 年期以上国债 ETF 则下跌 30%。韩国个人投资者今年已向美国上市的杠杆和反向 ETF 投资了 23 亿美元，比去年增加了三倍。他们选择投资 ETF 的原因包括养老金制度不足、生活成本高企以及对风险投资的普遍偏好。韩国散户希望通过杠杆 ETF 获得更高的回报。

韩国散户偏爱美国科技股杠杆 ETF 携资数十亿美元狂买

库克将发布一款被寄望改变世界的混合现实新品 Vision Pro，有望成为和乔布斯一样的伟大商业领袖。苹果正在加速更新 VisionOS，开发了数量庞大的应用。库克近期的中国行有望降低第二代 Vision Pro 的造价，Vision Pro 的高成本短板也正在消解。如果 Vision Pro 能改变人与物理世界的交互方式，创造出全新的产业，库克就能和乔布斯一样，成为不朽。

赛道 Hyper | 成为乔布斯：库克力推 Vision Pro

中国工信部原部长苗圩表示，中国汽车市场正发生深刻变化，智能网联汽车产业发展将成为转型成功的标志。他认为，新能源汽车已经形成对传统燃油汽车的取代之势，预计 2035 年超过 50% 的新能源汽车目标可能会提前至 2025 年或 2026 年实现。

工信部原部长苗圩：新能源车渗透率超 50% 的目标或提前十年实现

11 月非农就业数据即将公布，经济学家预计将新增 19 万个就业岗位，失业率为 3.9%。如果失业率持续上升，可能会触发 “萨姆规则”，标志着经济衰退的早期阶段。此外，工资增长预计将以 0.3% 的环比增长出现，投资者将密切关注这一数据是否符合软着陆理论。另外，最新的消费者信心指数将于周五公布，显示公众对通胀的预期。这些数据对于投资决策具有重要意义。

11 月非农前瞻：萨姆规则会被触发吗？

美股回归涨势，散户纷纷跑步进场，投资者开始购买亚马逊和英伟达等受欢迎的股票，同时也在买入风险更高的科技股和加密货币。这一现象被认为是 meme 股热潮的回归，散户投资者表现乐观，并在经济指标提振后加入市场。标普 500 指数 11 月创下历史第二好表现，比特币等 meme 股也跟随上涨。散户投资者约占股票市场每日交易量的 18%。根据调查，93% 的美国交易员计划在年底前投入更多资金。

Meme 狂潮再起？美股回归涨势 散户纷纷跑步进场

药明生物在经营交流会上大幅下调 2023 年部分板块营收和盈利预期。药物开发业务端收入预期下降 18%-20%，生产端预期下降 15%-18%。药明康德也在三季报中下调了全年营收预期。

药明生物经营交流会大幅下调 2023 年部分板块营收和盈利预期，港股一度跌超 20%

SINOHOPE TECH once surged more than 18%, and as of the time of writing, it has risen by 11.06%, reaching HKD 2.61, with a trading volume of HKD 4.1593 million. On the news front, the price of Bitcoin has reached $40,000 for the first time since May 2022. Due to the expected interest rate cut and increased demand for ETFs, Bitcoin, as the largest digital asset, has continued its rebound this year. As of 6:35 am on Monday, the trading price of Bitcoin in Singapore was $40,099, bringing its increase in 2023 to 142%. Market analysts pointed out in a report that Bitcoin continues to be supported by the optimistic sentiment of the approval of ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024. In addition, the company announced at the end of last month that it has reached a strategic cooperation with SlowMist, a global leading blockchain security company. The two parties will actively cooperate in MPC security audits, anti-money laundering (AML) for digital assets, Web3 threat intelligence cooperation networks, and the security of the digital asset ecosystem, jointly building a secure infrastructure for the development of the Web3 industry in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | SINOHOPE TECH surges over 18% as Bitcoin price surpasses $40,000.

2023 年，百强房企经历了大洗牌，保利发展成为行业第一，并连续 11 个月位列销售榜榜首。万科保持行业第二，但面临拿地端数据的不确定性。大多数规模房企在 2023 年 11 月的销售表现不佳，超 4 成百强房企同环比双降。

2023 百强房企完成大洗牌，保利登顶行业第一

比特币日内大涨 5.00%，短线走高逾 600 美元，最高至 40793 美元/枚。

Bitcoin prices have returned to $40,000 for the first time since May 2022, with the expected interest rate cut and increased demand for ETFs being the reasons for its rebound. Bitcoin has risen by 142%, leading to a global market rebound. The digital asset industry is awaiting the approval of ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitcoin is supported by the expectation of ETFs and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The cryptocurrency industry may be heading towards maturity and wider adoption.

Good news keeps coming, and Bitcoin has returned to $40,000 for the first time since May 2022.

中国国家新投资将增持央企科技指数 ETF，为 A 股市场带来增量资金，维稳提升投资者信心。国新投资公告增持中证国新央企科技引领指数 ETF 和中证央企创新驱动指数 ETF，两个指数成分股主要选取国资委下属央企，其中科技创新型企业占比较高。此举有助于市场信心回稳，预计还将有更多机构或资金参与。

“国家队” 增持的央企科技指数，有哪些企业？

中金发布研报称，美联储不一定会提前降息，市场定价可能过于超前。沃勒的讲话传递出美联储无意过度打压经济、希望引导软着陆的信号，有利于提振短期风险偏好。沃勒表示美联储货币政策位置良好，暗示本轮加息周期或已结束。通胀回落能够持续数个月，美联储将在较长时间内暂停加息。中金认为，未来通胀放缓的不确定性存在，供给修复力度减弱将使通胀韧性更强，利率停留时间更久。

中金：美联储会提前降息吗？

12 月，黄金价格暴涨至历史高位，逼近 2150 美元/盎司。财富管理机构预测，黄金在 12 月会有更大需求，受经济状况和地缘政治背景的影响。近期经济数据疲软，通胀压力缓解，市场预期美联储将开始降息。黄金季节性上涨成为焦点，预计势头将持续到明年。同时，供应减少以及央行抢购黄金等因素可能推动黄金突破 2100 美元。

12 月，金价暴涨开局！

中小银行合并重组在近几年明显提速，仅在今年就有超过 120 家中小银行通过监管部门的股权变更审批。11 月份有一家银行被吸收合并，另有 11 家银行因合并或收购而解散。同时，10 余家小银行也获批股权变更。例如，华夏银行收购了北京大兴华夏村镇银行，并设立了分支机构。这是中小银行合并的典型案例，备受关注。除了这个案例外，还有其他银行也进行了类似的合并。

“金饭碗” 转手，中小银行又现 “吸收合并” 潮

阿里网络近期退出了持有的 7 家上市公司，并将股份转让给杭州灏月，交易金额达 194 亿元。此举是为了实现阿里网络突出主营业务，非主营业务独立发展，提高经营效益，打造具有竞争力的企业。阿里网络并未放弃对这些公司的投资，而是通过新设立的投资公司进行代持。此次权益变动不会影响公司的实际控制权、公司治理结构和持续经营。

阿里网络大腾挪：接连 “退出” 美年健康、分众等 7 家公司，非主业要独立发展

比特币价格上涨，摩根大通给予 CleanSpark 和 Iris Energy“增持” 评级。CleanSpark 股价今年已飙升近 275%，Iris Energy 着眼于哈希率扩张，相对于同行来说价值很高。然而，Riot Platforms 股价似乎已经反映了比特币价格的升值。比特币价格上涨主要推动力是市场对 SEC 批准直接投资比特币的 ETF 有信心，以及投资者希望美联储下调利率。

比特币价格上涨 小摩给予矿商 CleanSpark 和 Iris Energy“增持” 评级

比特币向上触及 40000 美元/枚，日内涨 3.11%。

Alphabet-C has delayed the launch of its artificial intelligence model, Gemini, due to its unreliable performance in handling non-English queries. The planned activities for Gemini, originally scheduled for next year, have also been canceled. This poses a significant challenge for Alphabet-C, as Gemini is considered one of the most important products in the company's history. Alphabet-C hopes that Gemini can prove its leading position in the field of artificial intelligence. The Gemini team is working hard to improve its performance and ensure smooth operation in multiple languages worldwide.

The most powerful AI is going to be late again? Report: Alphabet-C delays the launch of Gemini

ChatGPT 推出一年来，改变了科技行业，带来了人工智能投资浪潮。初创公司融资方案中加入人工智能四个字，轻松获得融资。全球科技巨头也积极投资人工智能。微软将 AI 能力应用到旗舰产品中，谷歌推出了 Bard 聊天机器人。同时，不断有初创公司推出酷炫的新产品。ChatGPT 的成功令人印象深刻。

一年前，ChatGPT 低调发布的时候，命运的齿轮转动了

微软为 OpenAI 准备了 A、B、C 三个方案，但 OpenAI 董事会突然解雇了首席执行官山姆·奥特曼，引发了一场 “宫斗”。这场危机对微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉来说也是个意外，因为他与奥特曼合作多年并信任他。此前两家公司合作推出了基于 OpenAI 技术的人工智能助手，但纳德拉不知道奥特曼与 OpenAI 董事会之间的关系出现问题。董事会对奥特曼的行为感到不满，认为他撒谎。

《纽约客》万字长文还原 OpenAI“宫斗” 内幕

After a big rise in November, individual investors in the US stock market have finally entered the market! The late arrival of individual investors may further drive the stock market up. According to data and discussions, individual investors are buying popular stocks such as Amazon and Nvidia, as well as higher-risk technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. Individual investors account for 18% of the daily trading volume in the US stock market, and a survey shows that 93% of individual investors plan to invest the same or more funds in the stock market before the end of the year. In addition, the US stock market performed well in November, and speculative stocks such as Bitcoin and GameStop also rose. The optimistic sentiment of individual investors may further drive the stock market up.

After a significant increase in November, individual investors in the US stock market finally entered the market!

汽车芯片厂商在不断变化的市场中各显神通。英飞凌和恩智浦在汽车芯片领域占据领导地位，而意法半导体和瑞萨在 SiC 器件和 MCU 市场中表现优异。预计 SiC 器件市场价值将在 2030 年达到 110 亿至 140 亿美元，其中 70% 需求来自电动汽车。全球汽车芯片巨头纷纷抢滩布局，展开激烈竞争。在软件定义汽车的趋势下，汽车电子电气架构将演进为集中式架构，对 MCU 厂商提出更高要求。为了在市场中占据重要地位，这些厂商各出奇招。英飞凌在收购方面下重注，取得了显著增长。