Demand drops significantly + inadequate charging infrastructure, the European electric vehicle industry is in decline

European consumers, who have been enthusiastically embracing electric vehicles (EVs) this year, are now entering a "winter mode" as the growth in EV sales suddenly slows down.

According to a recent report by UBS, due to high interest rates and a slowdown in economic growth in Europe, they have revised their growth forecast for European EV sales in 2024 from the previous 25% to 15%. The report bluntly states, "The sales prospects for pure electric vehicles in Europe are exceptionally challenging."

Some argue that the previous growth in European EV sales only reflected the backlog of orders caused by supply chain bottlenecks and did not reflect the true consumer demand. According to a recent survey, the willingness of German consumers to purchase EVs has not increased in the past year.

In addition to economic instability, consumer dissatisfaction with factors such as EV safety, range, charging convenience, and price has become a significant constraint on the development of EVs in Europe.

As demand for EVs slows down in Europe and the United States, many automakers are inclined to offer lower-priced EVs to stimulate demand and compete in the market. According to data compiled by HSBC, there has been a large-scale wave of price reductions for EVs. Previously, German automakers hardly offered any discounts in the EV market, but now, in order to promote sales, they have reduced prices by about 7%.

At the same time, some analysts point out that the inadequate charging infrastructure in Europe is also a significant factor constraining the development of EVs. On December 4th, media reports stated that nearly half of the 1,600 charging stations deployed by Repsol, Spain's largest industrial company, were in a dormant state due to a lack of power connections. This phenomenon is widespread throughout the European Union.

A spokesperson for the European Commission stated, "The time required to connect EV charging points to the power grid can indeed be seen as an obstacle to accelerating the popularization of EVs. This issue needs to be addressed urgently."

Slowing down of EV sales in Europe

While global automakers have regarded the European EV market as a "blue ocean," it now seems to be freezing over.

Top companies such as Tesla, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz have issued pessimistic forecasts, stating that high interest rates and weak demand are reducing consumers' desire to purchase EVs. Volkswagen, for example, revealed that the current number of orders for its EVs is only half of what it was during the same period last year.

Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, also recently poured "cold water" on the European automotive industry. Tavares believes that the pace of electrification in Europe may slow down next year.

Seeing the future growth rate in Europe slowing down, several European automakers have postponed their related plans. Ford and General Motors, among other automotive giants, have announced that they will delay some investments in the EV industry due to lower-than-expected demand in the European and American markets and declining profits. Some companies have even decided to extend the sales period of their internal combustion engine vehicles.

In the eyes of these multinational automotive giants, the European EV market is currently facing significant challenges.

Herbert Diess, Chairman of the Volkswagen Group, recently stated that due to lower-than-expected demand for EVs in the European market, the Volkswagen Group will temporarily postpone the decision on the location of its fourth battery factory. Volkswagen pointed out that:

"The demand for electric vehicles has not grown as expected, and the group's electric vehicle orders in the European market have dropped from 300,000 units last year to 150,000 units."

Harald Wilhelm, Chief Financial Officer of Mercedes-Benz, even stated in an analyst conference call that if the profit margin of electric vehicles continues to be lower than expected due to "price wars," it is necessary to boost earnings by improving the return on the fuel vehicle product portfolio.

Challenges facing the approved charging station project

According to media reports, last week, the European Union proposed a charging network improvement action plan consisting of 14 items. This plan, with a scale of up to 584 billion euros (approximately RMB 45.5 trillion), will comprehensively inspect and upgrade the European power grid, aiming to strengthen interconnection, digitization, and enhance the network resilience of the European power grid to meet the challenges and opportunities of energy transition.

In fact, the European power industry has repeatedly warned of the urgency of upgrading the power grid in the past few months. The result of this bottleneck is that more and more renewable energy can only wait in line to be connected to the power grid. Data shows that currently, Spain and Italy each have over 150 GW of wind and solar capacity waiting to be connected.

In early November, the European power industry lobbying group warned that the European power grid is unable to keep up with the rapid expansion of renewable energy on the continent and is becoming a major bottleneck for integrating more clean energy into the grid.

Leonhard Birnbaum, head of the European power industry organization Euelectric, said that the power grid is gradually becoming a bottleneck for the development of new energy:

In the past, although Europe has expanded the market share of renewable energy, this was mainly achieved by utilizing the reserves in our existing infrastructure. But now, in more and more regions of Europe, we have exhausted our reserves.

Analysts believe that although the European Union is about to announce a huge investment in the power grid, the increasing number of regulations hindering the establishment of charging centers has become one of the main obstacles to the development of new energy vehicles:

A charging hub in Germany was put on hold for months due to regulations protecting a tree, while another hub located on a busy highway had to wait for a 10-month noise assessment for approval.

For Spain, although it only takes two to three weeks to install fast and ultra-fast charging points, the entire process may take one to two years due to different administrative requirements in Spain.

In July of this year, the Council of the European Union passed a new regulation that from 2025 onwards, on the "Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T)" highway system of EU member states, a fast charging station must be set up every 60 kilometers, providing at least 150 kW of charging power.

However, the electric vehicle charging company Greenway Network stated that obtaining basic data for potential centers has become a major challenge, making their investments difficult: This process involves conducting investigations on existing infrastructure to determine if it meets the requirements for fast charging stations, and upgrading the power infrastructure when necessary to ensure support for new charging stations.

Industry executives have indicated that the EU's targets are set relatively low, therefore they may be achievable, but may not be able to meet the growing demand for electric vehicles, especially trucks.