2024 年，券商普遍认为中国经济将释放更好的活力，政策将总体偏向扩张，需求回暖将带动 CPI 和 PPI 温和回升，出口有望处于修复周期。预计 2024 年全年实际 GDP 增速可能为 5% 左右。券商认为明年财政和准财政将继续发力，货币政策利率趋下行，降准和降息都有可能。预计 2024 年金融市场形势将边际好转。

十大券商 2024 年经济展望：中国经济 “活力释放” 稳经济政策 “总体偏扩张”

大盘已走成了下降通道，需要保存实力，不要回撤过大。增量资金入市对市场带来一丝光亮，但量和想象中差距太大。美联储将 “谨慎行事”，对通胀降至 2% 有更多进展持谨慎态度。药明生物在经营交流会上预计药物开发营收下降 1...

智通港股解盘 | CXO 逻辑生变遭遇滑铁卢 恒指空头排列宜保存实力

比特币飙升至 41800 美元，推动了美国加密货币相关股票的涨幅。Coinbase、MicroStrategy、Riot Platforms 等股票涨幅均在 9% 至 19% 之间。交易员对美联储降息的信心增强，同时人们对比特币现货 ETF 的批准也持乐观态度。比特币今年已经飙升了大约 150%。根据 Bloomberg 分析师的预计，SEC 最早将于明年 1 月批准比特币现货 ETF。

美股异动 | 比特币飙升至 41800 美元 加密货币股盘前大涨

Bitcoin Vault 宣布在 P2B 加密货币交易所上线。

比特币触及 42000 美元，日内大涨 5.6%，续刷 2022 年 4 月以来新高。

格灵深瞳股价因其自主研发的跨年龄同亲缘人脸比对算法在寻亲中的成功应用而上涨。该公司的主营业务包括智慧金融和城市管理，其中智慧金融占据主导地位，为农业银行、建设银行等客户提供服务。城市管理业务主要涵盖治安、交通及社区管理。与海康威视不同，格灵深瞳的城市安防业务更注重软件和算法。公司目前的策略是售卖软件系统，由下游集成商进行集成后再卖给政府部门。公司表示智慧金融、城市管理和商业零售等领域都是下游落地场景，但有的领域已有成熟产品，有的还在试点阶段。

助亿万富豪成功寻亲股价起飞 ，格灵深瞳年内能否扭亏

国家新闻出版署发布 11 月国产网络游戏审批信息，共 87 款游戏获批。

Morgan Stanley predicts that the price of gold is expected to rebound significantly in 2024, reaching $2,300. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties will drive the price of gold higher. At the same time, Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil will remain in the range of $80-90 per barrel next year, about $10 higher than the current level. Despite the poor performance of commodities this year, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the future trends of gold and oil in the next two years. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 will trigger a significant rebound in the price of gold, pushing it to new highs. Morgan Stanley predicts that as real yields decline, the price of gold may rise.

J.P. Morgan's 2024 Commodity Outlook: Fed Rate Cuts Boosting Gold, Expected to Break Through $2300

According to the data from Zhitong App, as of the close on December 4th, there were 49 stocks that hit a 52-week high. Among them, BESTSTUDY EDU, GOLDEN THROAT, and MS GROUP HLDGS had the highest growth rates, which were 31.63%, 24.75%, and 20.93% respectively. In addition, there were 209 stocks that hit a 52-week low. Among them, YOUJU HOLDINGS, KEEP, and JINTAI ENERGY HOLDINGS had the lowest decline rates, which were -25.37%, -24.30%, and -20.00% respectively.

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock 52-week Highs and Lows Statistics | December 4th

金价创高，黄金 ETF 热度升温。近期黄金 ETF 净值创历史新高，规模回升。最近一月 14 只黄金 ETF 流入 5000 万份份额，约 2.5 亿。最近一季度流入 3.57 亿份，半年流入 10.2 亿份。新增黄金 ETF 集中在 9 月，包括华夏、广发、富国、工银瑞信等 10 家公募基金。部分基金公司所管产品未得市场认同。黄金 ETF 再度受到关注。

金价创高，黄金 ETF 热度升温

韩国散户投资者偏爱美国科技股杠杆型交易所交易基金 (ETF)，持有特斯拉和 FAANG 等股票。其中，Direxion-3 倍做多半导体 ETF 近期涨幅达 140%，而 Direion Daily-3 倍做多 20 年期以上国债 ETF 则下跌 30%。韩国个人投资者今年已向美国上市的杠杆和反向 ETF 投资了 23 亿美元，比去年增加了三倍。他们选择投资 ETF 的原因包括养老金制度不足、生活成本高企以及对风险投资的普遍偏好。韩国散户希望通过杠杆 ETF 获得更高的回报。

韩国散户偏爱美国科技股杠杆 ETF 携资数十亿美元狂买

库克将发布一款被寄望改变世界的混合现实新品 Vision Pro，有望成为和乔布斯一样的伟大商业领袖。苹果正在加速更新 VisionOS，开发了数量庞大的应用。库克近期的中国行有望降低第二代 Vision Pro 的造价，Vision Pro 的高成本短板也正在消解。如果 Vision Pro 能改变人与物理世界的交互方式，创造出全新的产业，库克就能和乔布斯一样，成为不朽。

赛道 Hyper | 成为乔布斯：库克力推 Vision Pro

中国工信部原部长苗圩表示，中国汽车市场正发生深刻变化，智能网联汽车产业发展将成为转型成功的标志。他认为，新能源汽车已经形成对传统燃油汽车的取代之势，预计 2035 年超过 50% 的新能源汽车目标可能会提前至 2025 年或 2026 年实现。

工信部原部长苗圩：新能源车渗透率超 50% 的目标或提前十年实现

11 月非农就业数据即将公布，经济学家预计将新增 19 万个就业岗位，失业率为 3.9%。如果失业率持续上升，可能会触发 “萨姆规则”，标志着经济衰退的早期阶段。此外，工资增长预计将以 0.3% 的环比增长出现，投资者将密切关注这一数据是否符合软着陆理论。另外，最新的消费者信心指数将于周五公布，显示公众对通胀的预期。这些数据对于投资决策具有重要意义。

11 月非农前瞻：萨姆规则会被触发吗？

美股回归涨势，散户纷纷跑步进场，投资者开始购买亚马逊和英伟达等受欢迎的股票，同时也在买入风险更高的科技股和加密货币。这一现象被认为是 meme 股热潮的回归，散户投资者表现乐观，并在经济指标提振后加入市场。标普 500 指数 11 月创下历史第二好表现，比特币等 meme 股也跟随上涨。散户投资者约占股票市场每日交易量的 18%。根据调查，93% 的美国交易员计划在年底前投入更多资金。

Meme 狂潮再起？美股回归涨势 散户纷纷跑步进场

药明生物在经营交流会上大幅下调 2023 年部分板块营收和盈利预期。药物开发业务端收入预期下降 18%-20%，生产端预期下降 15%-18%。药明康德也在三季报中下调了全年营收预期。

药明生物经营交流会大幅下调 2023 年部分板块营收和盈利预期，港股一度跌超 20%

SINOHOPE TECH once surged more than 18%, and as of the time of writing, it has risen by 11.06%, reaching HKD 2.61, with a trading volume of HKD 4.1593 million. On the news front, the price of Bitcoin has reached $40,000 for the first time since May 2022. Due to the expected interest rate cut and increased demand for ETFs, Bitcoin, as the largest digital asset, has continued its rebound this year. As of 6:35 am on Monday, the trading price of Bitcoin in Singapore was $40,099, bringing its increase in 2023 to 142%. Market analysts pointed out in a report that Bitcoin continues to be supported by the optimistic sentiment of the approval of ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024. In addition, the company announced at the end of last month that it has reached a strategic cooperation with SlowMist, a global leading blockchain security company. The two parties will actively cooperate in MPC security audits, anti-money laundering (AML) for digital assets, Web3 threat intelligence cooperation networks, and the security of the digital asset ecosystem, jointly building a secure infrastructure for the development of the Web3 industry in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | SINOHOPE TECH surges over 18% as Bitcoin price surpasses $40,000.

2023 年，百强房企经历了大洗牌，保利发展成为行业第一，并连续 11 个月位列销售榜榜首。万科保持行业第二，但面临拿地端数据的不确定性。大多数规模房企在 2023 年 11 月的销售表现不佳，超 4 成百强房企同环比双降。

2023 百强房企完成大洗牌，保利登顶行业第一

比特币日内大涨 5.00%，短线走高逾 600 美元，最高至 40793 美元/枚。

Bitcoin prices have returned to $40,000 for the first time since May 2022, with the expected interest rate cut and increased demand for ETFs being the reasons for its rebound. Bitcoin has risen by 142%, leading to a global market rebound. The digital asset industry is awaiting the approval of ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitcoin is supported by the expectation of ETFs and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The cryptocurrency industry may be heading towards maturity and wider adoption.

Good news keeps coming, and Bitcoin has returned to $40,000 for the first time since May 2022.

中国国家新投资将增持央企科技指数 ETF，为 A 股市场带来增量资金，维稳提升投资者信心。国新投资公告增持中证国新央企科技引领指数 ETF 和中证央企创新驱动指数 ETF，两个指数成分股主要选取国资委下属央企，其中科技创新型企业占比较高。此举有助于市场信心回稳，预计还将有更多机构或资金参与。

“国家队” 增持的央企科技指数，有哪些企业？

中金发布研报称，美联储不一定会提前降息，市场定价可能过于超前。沃勒的讲话传递出美联储无意过度打压经济、希望引导软着陆的信号，有利于提振短期风险偏好。沃勒表示美联储货币政策位置良好，暗示本轮加息周期或已结束。通胀回落能够持续数个月，美联储将在较长时间内暂停加息。中金认为，未来通胀放缓的不确定性存在，供给修复力度减弱将使通胀韧性更强，利率停留时间更久。

中金：美联储会提前降息吗？

12 月，黄金价格暴涨至历史高位，逼近 2150 美元/盎司。财富管理机构预测，黄金在 12 月会有更大需求，受经济状况和地缘政治背景的影响。近期经济数据疲软，通胀压力缓解，市场预期美联储将开始降息。黄金季节性上涨成为焦点，预计势头将持续到明年。同时，供应减少以及央行抢购黄金等因素可能推动黄金突破 2100 美元。

12 月，金价暴涨开局！

中小银行合并重组在近几年明显提速，仅在今年就有超过 120 家中小银行通过监管部门的股权变更审批。11 月份有一家银行被吸收合并，另有 11 家银行因合并或收购而解散。同时，10 余家小银行也获批股权变更。例如，华夏银行收购了北京大兴华夏村镇银行，并设立了分支机构。这是中小银行合并的典型案例，备受关注。除了这个案例外，还有其他银行也进行了类似的合并。

“金饭碗” 转手，中小银行又现 “吸收合并” 潮

阿里网络近期退出了持有的 7 家上市公司，并将股份转让给杭州灏月，交易金额达 194 亿元。此举是为了实现阿里网络突出主营业务，非主营业务独立发展，提高经营效益，打造具有竞争力的企业。阿里网络并未放弃对这些公司的投资，而是通过新设立的投资公司进行代持。此次权益变动不会影响公司的实际控制权、公司治理结构和持续经营。

阿里网络大腾挪：接连 “退出” 美年健康、分众等 7 家公司，非主业要独立发展

比特币价格上涨，摩根大通给予 CleanSpark 和 Iris Energy“增持” 评级。CleanSpark 股价今年已飙升近 275%，Iris Energy 着眼于哈希率扩张，相对于同行来说价值很高。然而，Riot Platforms 股价似乎已经反映了比特币价格的升值。比特币价格上涨主要推动力是市场对 SEC 批准直接投资比特币的 ETF 有信心，以及投资者希望美联储下调利率。

比特币价格上涨 小摩给予矿商 CleanSpark 和 Iris Energy“增持” 评级

比特币向上触及 40000 美元/枚，日内涨 3.11%。

Alphabet-C has delayed the launch of its artificial intelligence model, Gemini, due to its unreliable performance in handling non-English queries. The planned activities for Gemini, originally scheduled for next year, have also been canceled. This poses a significant challenge for Alphabet-C, as Gemini is considered one of the most important products in the company's history. Alphabet-C hopes that Gemini can prove its leading position in the field of artificial intelligence. The Gemini team is working hard to improve its performance and ensure smooth operation in multiple languages worldwide.

The most powerful AI is going to be late again? Report: Alphabet-C delays the launch of Gemini

ChatGPT 推出一年来，改变了科技行业，带来了人工智能投资浪潮。初创公司融资方案中加入人工智能四个字，轻松获得融资。全球科技巨头也积极投资人工智能。微软将 AI 能力应用到旗舰产品中，谷歌推出了 Bard 聊天机器人。同时，不断有初创公司推出酷炫的新产品。ChatGPT 的成功令人印象深刻。

一年前，ChatGPT 低调发布的时候，命运的齿轮转动了

微软为 OpenAI 准备了 A、B、C 三个方案，但 OpenAI 董事会突然解雇了首席执行官山姆·奥特曼，引发了一场 “宫斗”。这场危机对微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉来说也是个意外，因为他与奥特曼合作多年并信任他。此前两家公司合作推出了基于 OpenAI 技术的人工智能助手，但纳德拉不知道奥特曼与 OpenAI 董事会之间的关系出现问题。董事会对奥特曼的行为感到不满，认为他撒谎。

《纽约客》万字长文还原 OpenAI“宫斗” 内幕

After a big rise in November, individual investors in the US stock market have finally entered the market! The late arrival of individual investors may further drive the stock market up. According to data and discussions, individual investors are buying popular stocks such as Amazon and Nvidia, as well as higher-risk technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. Individual investors account for 18% of the daily trading volume in the US stock market, and a survey shows that 93% of individual investors plan to invest the same or more funds in the stock market before the end of the year. In addition, the US stock market performed well in November, and speculative stocks such as Bitcoin and GameStop also rose. The optimistic sentiment of individual investors may further drive the stock market up.

After a significant increase in November, individual investors in the US stock market finally entered the market!

汽车芯片厂商在不断变化的市场中各显神通。英飞凌和恩智浦在汽车芯片领域占据领导地位，而意法半导体和瑞萨在 SiC 器件和 MCU 市场中表现优异。预计 SiC 器件市场价值将在 2030 年达到 110 亿至 140 亿美元，其中 70% 需求来自电动汽车。全球汽车芯片巨头纷纷抢滩布局，展开激烈竞争。在软件定义汽车的趋势下，汽车电子电气架构将演进为集中式架构，对 MCU 厂商提出更高要求。为了在市场中占据重要地位，这些厂商各出奇招。英飞凌在收购方面下重注，取得了显著增长。

汽车芯片大厂，各显神通

特斯拉的新款车型 Cybertruck 可能对其利润贡献有限，但有助于提升品牌形象。分析认为，Cybertruck 的产能爬坡较慢，市场空间有限，高昂的价格也可能使一部分消费者转向其他更实惠的替代品。特斯拉预计到 2025 年，全球交付 25 万辆 Cybertruck。然而，根据 JATO Dynamics 的数据，仅今年欧洲地区 Model Y 的年交付量就可能达到这一数字。因此，尽管 Cybertruck 有一定市场，但可能无法像 Model Y 那样全球热销。

Cybertruck 对特斯拉的利润贡献：0？

Global inflation data has come in lower than expected, with core annual inflation in many countries also falling below expectations. The main factor driving the decline in inflation is the downward trend in energy prices. In the Eurozone, inflation data has dropped to 2.4%, far below the peak of 10.6%, which is a larger decline than what the market had anticipated. Inflation data in several countries, including the UK, Eurozone, US, Mexico, and Australia, has been lower than expected. Energy inflation has fallen by over 11% for two consecutive months. Core annual inflation in many countries, excluding food and energy, has also been lower than expected, including in the US, UK, Indonesia, and Japan.

The "confidence" of the market betting on interest rate cuts: Inflation is falling too fast

比特币价格站上 3.9 万美元，11 月的涨势或将延续到 12 月。数据显示，比特币历史上有 77% 的概率 12 月的价格走势与 11 月重合。比特币价格在过去一个月上涨了 9%，达到了 18 个月以来的高点。预计现货比特币 ETF 获批将增加比特币的需求，可能使比特币总市值增长数十亿美元。投资者对美联储降息预期的升温也推动了比特币价格的上涨。然而，对比特币前景持怀疑态度的市场人士认为，新的现货比特币 ETF 可能对比特币价格不利。

比特币站上 3.9 万美元！11 月喜人涨势能延续到 12 月吗？

钙钛矿，京东方和比亚迪的新方向 | 见智研究

11 月股市反弹，市场对美联储放松货币政策的预期升温，投资者应谨慎行事。风险偏好上升与美联储收紧金融环境的目标背道而驰，导致股市反弹终结。市场波动率降至疫情前低点，全球风险偏好指标近两年最高。美联储主席否认降息预期，但市场普遍认为紧缩行动已结束。市场走势极端引发可持续性担忧。投资者预期美联储早日放松货币政策，否则乐观情绪可能错位。实际利率上升威胁商业周期。11 月市场反弹巨大，债券收益率下跌为股市和新兴市场反弹奠定基础。

降息预期升温助推市场强劲反弹 但投资者仍应谨慎行事

The spot price of gold surged by more than 1.8% under the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, approaching its historical high, only 6 cents away. The weak ISM manufacturing PMI data in the United States and bond traders' bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year have intensified the upward momentum of gold prices. Institutions such as UBS predict that with the rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the decline in real interest rates, the price of gold may reach new highs again. At the same time, the prospects of US interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties are also supporting the rise in gold prices.

Gold spot prices surged more than 1.8% during the trading session! It is only 6 cents away from reaching a new all-time high.

拼多多旗下的跨境电商平台 Temu 是中国跨境电商行业最具吸引力的标的之一。根据中金互联网分析师白洋团队的研报，Temu 的用户数、复购频次和经营效率提升都超出预期，预计未来总 GMV 有望达到千亿美元级别，长期经营利润/GMV 有望达到 5%-10%。然而，目前市场对 Temu 持 0 估值或负估值。如果 Temu 能够避免风险并顺利发展，有望为拼多多估值贡献较大增量。

中金研报：Temu 跟踪框架、UE 模型和财务测算

现货黄金日内涨幅达 1.0%，报 2057.91 美元/盎司。在鲍威尔谈及利率政策之际，两年期美债收益率跌超 10 个基点，刷新日低至 4.58% 下方。美元/瑞郎日内跌幅达 0.5%，报 0.8708。比特币日内涨幅达 3.0%，报 38734 美元。

金价上涨 1%，瑞郎涨 0.5%，比特币涨 3%

周五，比特币概念股走高，截至发稿，Coinbase 涨近 5%，MicroStrategy 涨超 5%，Marathon Digital 涨超 10%，Riot Platforms、Bit Digital 涨超 8%。此前数字货币公司 Galaxy Digital Holdings 的创始人兼首席执行官 Michael Novogratz 预测，随着人们对美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 可能批准美国首只现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的预期升温，比特币有望在一年后达到以前的峰值。

美股异动 | 比特币概念股走高 Coinbase 涨近 5%

ZEEKR has decided to postpone its IPO plan due to weak market popularity and mismatched valuation expectations. Its valuation may not reach the expected $13 billion, and the final amount raised may be $500 million. Investors' enthusiasm for new energy vehicle companies is gradually cooling down, and the imagination of the electric vehicle industry is greatly discounted. It is not easy to tell the story of "the fastest IPO of the new forces" in the current capital market where enthusiasm for new energy vehicles is cooling down.

Is ZEEKR IPO hitting the brakes?

Luxury demand deteriorates, Morgan Stanley downgrades LVMH rating to "Equal-weight" and lowers target price to 790 euros. This week, HSBC also lowered expectations and price targets for the luxury goods industry. LVMH's third-quarter revenue was lower than expected, with organic revenue growth slowing to 14%. LVMH's stock price has fallen by 28.8%.

Morgan Stanley downgrades LVMH rating as luxury demand deteriorates, ending six years of bullish sentiment.

The delivery performance of domestic new energy vehicle companies in November has been announced. GAC Aion, LI AUTO-W, and XPENG-W ranked in the top three, with WM Motor and NIO-SW ranking fourth. GAC Aion's cumulative sales this year reached 434,100 vehicles, Li Auto achieved its sales target of 300,000 vehicles ahead of schedule, and XPENG-W's deliveries increased by 245% year-on-year. At the same time, NIO-SW's deliveries decreased month-on-month, and Xpeng's deliveries have been declining year-on-year for six consecutive months. Overall, there have been significant changes in the ranking of new energy vehicle deliveries in November.

November Ranking of New Energy Vehicle Startups: WM Motor delivers over 18,000 units, LI AUTO-W achieves annual sales target ahead of schedule

王思聪参与山东泰安文旅项目签约仪式，引发猜测他是否要回家继承万达家业。然而，万达方面表示王思聪的活动与万达无关，他忙自己的事。王思聪曾尝到投资失利的苦果，无意接万达的班。王健林正在努力挽救万达商管的上市和债务谈判，王思聪帮不了父亲什么。王思聪参与泰安文旅项目的商业活动，可能是更接近他的祖业。

王思聪还接不了万达的班

CrystalTech has submitted an IPO application to HKEX, becoming the second company to file for an 18C IPO on HKEX. The company explained in its prospectus the reasons for choosing to go public on HKEX, mainly due to the introduction of the new regulations for 18C special-purpose technology companies. Unlike InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo, CrystalTech's customer base has expanded from biopharmaceuticals to other sectors such as energy, meeting the requirements of 18C. The news of CrystalTech's IPO is not surprising, as there have been rumors since 2021 that the company may go public in the United States.

The battle for the title of "Asia-Pacific's leading AI pharmaceutical company" is heating up, as Crystal Technology, backed by Tencent and Sequoia, launches its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Tesla officially begins deliveries, marking the start of a new product cycle for the company. Despite Tesla's complex manufacturing process and higher pricing, its strong product performance and technological appeal continue to attract a large number of consumers. Tesla believes that durability and ruggedness will become its competitive advantages, and it has also demonstrated excellent traction and acceleration capabilities. This delivery event is of great significance to Tesla as it can help rejuvenate the company. The listing of Tesla and the growth in production and sales volume are also expected to drive the development of the entire industry chain.

Is Tesla officially starting deliveries? Is Tesla entering a new product cycle?

UBS believes that the Chinese economy is transitioning from investment-driven growth to high-quality growth driven by domestic demand. The real estate sector is seeking new development models, while new energy vehicles are leading the global automotive industry. With policy stimulus and the low base effect, it is expected that the downward trend in China's real estate investment will ease next year. In the long term, consumer spending, green transformation, technological innovation, and industrial upgrading will become the new driving forces of the Chinese economy. It is expected that the bottom of China's real estate market will be reached in 2024, with a 5% decrease in total sales of commercial housing compared to 2023. We can expect the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the normalization of yield levels on the Chinese economy.

UBS: "New Three Engines" Will Drive China's Economic Growth

比特币触及 38600 美元高位，日内涨 2.6%，2022 年 5 月以来新高。

The price of Bitcoin has doubled, and speculators are paying attention to whether it can break through $40,000. The cryptocurrency market is driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the imminent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Although the cryptocurrency industry is being affected by increased regulation, it is maturing and is expected to be widely adopted. The market expects the United States to approve a batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs before January next year. Despite the risks of interest rate bets and ETF turmoil, the current market sentiment remains optimistic. MicroStrategy, the world's largest holder of Bitcoin, continues to buy Bitcoin, demonstrating confidence in its value. The price of Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs in the coming year.