2023 年，国内在线广告市场规模达到 1.2 万亿以上，同比增速 11% 左右，增速不高且是在 2022 年下滑的基础上实现的。存量竞争将是大家现阶段共同面临的核心问题。腾讯等四个 “千亿广告俱乐部” 成员拿走近 80% 的市场份额，剩下的市场则被京东、快手、百度等抢占。2024 年，广告市场还会有什么新的走势？

2024 互联网大厂广告生意指南

中金公司研报认为，当前资产配置上建议先债后股，债券当前性价比更高。预计流动性交易二季度或将面临拐点，降息交易或将逐渐成为主线。同时，充裕流动性驱动的比特币、黄金和铜，降息预期驱动的利率、股市和黄金，需求改善与二次通胀预期驱动的铜和油也是关注的主线。黄金抢跑后空间有限、回调后可再介入，再通胀驱动的铜和油需求转好要待降息后。

中金公司：建议先债后股，债券当前性价比更高

This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak, Baidu Intelligent Cloud will hold a large-scale model application product launch event, Xiaomi SU7 will announce pricing, PetroChina, Leapmotor, BYD, and others will release their financial results. Media reports that Apple iOS 18 will adopt a new home screen, making Apple "more customizable". ZEEKR responds to "5 people injured in an accident caused by a display car starting unexpectedly". Evergrande withdraws its debt restructuring application. Both AMD and Apple will continue to increase their investment in China. Alibaba Cloud's Madao initiates the "ModelScope-Sora Open Source Plan"

Breakfast | Goldman Sachs is bullish on the S&P 500 to 6000 points, "US-China relations have rebounded from the bottom"

定位先进制造，境内 “头部” 公司双双上新。A 股打新市场依旧火爆，过去一周两只新股上涨超过 80%。接下来一周将有两只新股开启打新，分别是圆柱型锂电池盖帽细分领域的中瑞股份和芯片设计服务商灿芯股份。中瑞股份在圆柱锂电池盖帽领域居于国内第一，全球龙头地位，而灿芯股份是行业排名前列的集成电路设计服务企业。中瑞股份已实现对特斯拉新能源车组合盖帽的供应，而灿芯股份提供一站式芯片定制服务。

定位先进制造，境内 “头部” 公司双双上新

“巴菲特指标” 达到两年新高，显示股市估值过高，可能面临崩盘。巴菲特警告称，当该指标接近 200% 时买入股票将是 “玩火”，并指出该指标在互联网泡沫期间飙升至创纪录高点，预示着即将到来的崩盘。今年以来，美股飙升至历史新高，引发了一些人对泡沫的担忧。

“巴菲特指标” 创两年新高，拉响股市泡沫警报

Retail investors and hedge fund clients of Goldman Sachs are returning to the cryptocurrency market. Goldman Sachs has launched a cryptocurrency trading platform, offering Bitcoin and Ethereum futures as well as cash-settled Bitcoin and Ethereum options trading. The clients mainly consist of traditional hedge funds, but Goldman Sachs is also expanding its client base to include asset management companies, bank clients, and digital asset firms. Clients are using cryptocurrency derivatives for directional bets, yield enhancement, and hedging purposes. Goldman Sachs is also actively tokenizing traditional assets using blockchain technology and investing in blockchain infrastructure companies

Goldman Sachs: In addition to retail investors, hedge funds are also returning to the cryptocurrency market

比特币上破 67000 美元/枚，日内涨 1.33%。

Most institutions have raised their expectations, but analysts at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase remain "very pessimistic"

Goldman Sachs: Valuation of tech giants is far from a bubble, SPDR S&P 500 may rise another 15% this year, breaking through 6000 points!

比特币价格的大起大落给投资者带来了很大的波动风险。近段时间，比特币价格多次出现短期性和周期性波动，造成多方和空方爆仓。作为投资者，应保持理智和客观，评估市场环境、投资偏好和风险控制，不盲目跟风。

比特币大起大落 行情比 “过山车” 刺激

Hedge funds are also increasing their short positions

The better the macro situation, the weaker the Japanese yen? Goldman Sachs sees the Japanese yen falling to 155 in the short term

Citigroup continues to be bullish on Microsoft in its report, maintains a neutral view on Oracle, and sees Snowflake as potentially "mixed blessings"

First-hand feedback: How is the customer acceptance of AI software from Microsoft, Oracle, and Snowflake?

HSBC believes that compared to the high point in January 2022, the cumulative increase in US stocks is only 9%. Since then, the nominal GDP of the United States has increased by more than 13%, indicating that the economy is still on a path of stable growth and does not exhibit characteristics of an imminent "bubble" burst

HSBC: Is the current US stock market a bubble?

三星电子计划向 Naver 出售 Mach-1 人工智能芯片，以减少其对 Nvidia 芯片的依赖。这笔交易价值 1 万亿韩元，将帮助三星扩大客户群。消息人士透露，三星还在与微软和 Meta Platforms Inc.进行供货谈判。Mach-1 芯片定价在每片 500 万韩元左右，Naver 希望接收 15 万至 20 万个 AI 加速器。Naver 预计将在其服务器中使用 Mach-1 芯片进行人工智能推理。三星表示 Mach-1 芯片具有竞争力，可以减少 GPU 和 HBM 芯片之间的瓶颈。

三星 AI 芯片，正式叫板英伟达，拿下 1 万亿韩元订单

中信银行 2023 年营业收入首次下滑，主要原因是利息净收入的下降。此外，零售业务增长乏力也是影响营收的因素之一。虽然净利润有所增长，但增速放缓。中信银行资产总额突破 9 万亿大关，但营业收入同比下滑罕见。净息差持续下降可能是收入下降的主要原因。中信银行面临增长乏力的难题。

14 年来首次营收下滑，中信银行也 “卷” 不动了

NVIDIA has benefited from the strong demand for GPUs in the market, but its high selling price has also pushed up the costs for AI enterprises, leading to poor implementation of downstream applications. How much longer can NVIDIA's growth story continue?

The biggest risk for NVIDIA is NVIDIA itself?

Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2035, the global shipment of humanoid robots will reach 1.4 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 70%, and the market size will reach 38 billion US dollars

Goldman Sachs: NVIDIA's GR00T is a major breakthrough in humanoid robots

诺和诺德正在进行 GLP-1/GIP 双靶点激动剂的二期临床试验，并计划于 2024 年 11 月初步完成。该激动剂在一期临床试验中表现出良好的降糖和减重效果。此外，诺和诺德还在积极开发 Amycretin 作为 GLP-1R/胰淀素受体双靶点激动剂。目前，诺和诺德的 Amylin+ 司美格鲁肽联合治疗已进入三期临床阶段。

诺和诺德：GLP-1/GIP 启动二期临床，头对头对比替尔泊肽

Microsoft "informally acquires" Inflection, collectively "poaching" the core team and investing $650 million. Previously, Microsoft had injected about $10 billion into OpenAI, holding 49% of the shares and owning all of its intellectual property and capabilities

Dominating the AI empire, is Microsoft the strongest PE in the tech industry?

台湾将于 4 月起调涨电价，大型工业用户受影响最大。调涨幅度为 15%-25%，其中互联网数据中心和台积电等芯片巨头涨幅最高。台电累计亏损已达 3000 多亿元新台币，台当局称 “不得不” 全面调涨电价。台湾电价调整频率为一年两次检讨，此次调涨为 11%。根据彭博行业研究科技分析师的报告，涨幅低于 30% 对台积电影响有限，但电价日增可能对该公司的盈利能力构成长期威胁。

台湾 4 月起调涨电价 台积电等大型工业用户受影响最大

Citigroup believes that the increasingly clear expectations of interest rate cuts, the gradual improvement in global growth prospects, and the weakening of the US dollar are all positive for European stocks

European stocks have risen for nine consecutive weeks, Citigroup remains bullish: expected to rise another 6% by the end of the year

Traders are preparing for the continued decline of Bitcoin, leading to a weakening demand for Bitcoin ETFs. In the past 24 hours, the trading volume of Bitcoin put options has exceeded call options, pushing up the put/call ratio, indicating a bearish outlook in the short term. Bitcoin has dropped by more than 10%, and spot Bitcoin ETFs are also facing outflows. The pullback of Bitcoin contrasts sharply with the rebound in the stock market, making traders more optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cuts this year. The decline in Bitcoin may not be as severe as the previous pullback

Traders prepare for Bitcoin's sharp decline: surge in open interest for put options

NVIDIA(NVDA) rose 3.12%, with a trading turnover 54.7 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 90.4%. Alphabet(GOOGL) rose 2.15%, with a trading turnover 4.4 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 7.9%. Nike(NKE) fell 6.9%, with a trading turnover 3.9 Billion USD, and a year-to-date fell 13.3%. Blackstone(BX) fell 2.89%, with a trading turnover 266.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 1.6%.

Top 5 US Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (3.22)

AUNA S A(AUNA) fell 20%, with a trading turnover 87.6 Million USD, and a year-to-date . Lululemon(LULU) fell 15.8%, with a trading turnover 7.9 Billion USD, and a year-to-date fell 21.1%. Digital World Acquisition(DWAC) fell 13.71%, with a trading turnover 405.2 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 111.1%.

Top 10 US Stock Losers (3.22)

EHang(EH) rose 5.22%, with a trading turnover 35.0 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 11.5%. Full Truck Alliance(YMM) rose 2.94%, with a trading turnover 82.0 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 4.9%. GigaCloud Tech(GCT) fell 11.68%, with a trading turnover 91.7 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 47.1%. Kingsoft Cloud(KC) fell 9.64%, with a trading turnover 7.2 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 13.2%.

Top 5 CDRs Gainers/Losers (>100M) (3.22)

Canopy Growth(CGC) rose 68.64%, with a trading turnover 442.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 50.5%. Tilray Brands(TLRY) rose 18.46%, with a trading turnover 210.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 0.4%. Stevanato Group SpA(STVN) rose 9.54%, with a trading turnover 102.1 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 13.6%.

Top 10 US Stock Gainers (3.22)

Anthropic has ruled out the possibility of obtaining investment from Saudi Arabia, and it is possible that Amazon and Alphabet-C may not take the opportunity to increase their shareholding

$1 billion in shares grabbed by sovereign wealth funds and others! Claude's parent company Anthropic becomes the darling of the market

Both TENCENT and Sam Altman are major shareholders of the social forum giant Reddit. TENCENT's total investment return rate in Reddit over the past five years has reached 22%. On the day Reddit went public, Sam Altman made a net profit of $200 million

The "American Tieba" Reddit, which has a hot IPO, has Tencent and Ultraman as major shareholders

Insiders revealed that Apple will cut dozens of display engineering positions in the United States and Asia. The reason for terminating the project is that the costs and complexity are too high, making it difficult to achieve mass production scale. This decision was made around the same time as Apple's decision to cancel the development of electric cars

Apple does "subtraction": no car manufacturing, and no more microLED for smartwatch display!

Tencent doesn't want to fall from the throne

The most profitable luxury car is going to change hands?

As of 2024, Apple's stock price has cumulatively fallen by approximately 10.5%, leading to its weight in the S&P 500 index dropping to around 5.7%, hitting a new low since June 2021. In contrast, the weight reached over 7.7% in mid-2023. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Justice accused Apple of violating antitrust laws, resulting in Apple's stock price experiencing its worst single-day performance since August last year

Apple's weight in the S&P 500 index has dropped to a new low since 2021

Li Xiang is saving Li Auto

Meituan stated that it plans to increase the markup on goods in the future and reduce subsidies, focusing more on the long-term growth of natural user retention rates

MEITUAN conference call: Future goal is to significantly reduce losses

HSBC does not recognize the existence of a bubble in the US stock market, emphasizing that the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 is only 9% higher than the high point in January 2022, while the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13% during the same period

HSBC: There is still room for the current bull market in US stocks, and the rating is further upgraded

比特币向下触及 64000 美元/枚，日内跌 2.15%。

比特币向下触及 64000 美元/枚

Between 1967 and 1995, its hedge funds achieved an annual average return of nearly 27%

"King of Short-term Trading" Stanhart: Never believes in brokers' views

Less than two years, the maximum increase is 10 times!

WSB Hot Discussion | NVIDIA's exclusive liquid cooling partner VRT hits new high

Bank of America cited data from EPFR, stating that in the week ending this Wednesday, $1.1 billion flowed into gold funds, the highest level since May 2023. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, while on Thursday, the Bank of England indicated that the UK economy is moving towards a rate cut, and the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points. Bank of America believes that major central banks are gradually shifting towards rate cuts, supporting market trends and explaining why assets such as stocks and gold are at historical highs. The price of gold has room to rise as several central banks continue to buy gold. Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has driven demand for gold

Bank of America: Gold funds see the largest weekly inflow in nearly a year

According to reports, Tesla is cutting its car production in the Chinese market due to slowing growth in electric vehicle sales. Chinese concept stocks are generally down in pre-market trading, with XPeng-W dropping nearly 5%, JD.com, Bilibili, and Li Auto falling over 2%, Alibaba-SWR, Pinduoduo, Nio-SW, and Baidu-SW dropping over 1%. Lululemon is down nearly 13%, Nike is down over 6%, and FedEx is up nearly 13%

Pre-market trading in US stocks: Tesla fell nearly 4%, XPeng-W fell nearly 5%, leading the decline in Chinese concept stocks!

In the fourth quarter, MEITUAN's core local business remained robust, but the profit margin decreased by 2.1% year-on-year; losses in new businesses narrowed. However, the growth rate of MEITUAN Select slowed down, with scale growth below expectations

Meituan's Q4 revenue increased by 22.6% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit more than quadrupling. Losses from new businesses narrowed. | Financial Report Insights

Citigroup has significantly raised NVIDIA's target price from $820 to $1030, while also increasing the earnings per share forecast for the 24/25 fiscal year by 7% and 21% respectively, to reflect the better-than-expected pricing of the Blackwell platform; meanwhile, BNP Paribas has lowered LI AUTO's target price to HKD 163, but estimates that the company will be able to reverse Mega's weakness in the fourth quarter

Rating Quick Look | TENCENT, NVIDIA's target prices significantly raised! PDD, Li Auto, XPENG-W facing price cuts

MEITUAN released its fourth-quarter and full-year performance for 2023, with annual revenue of 276.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 26%. The food delivery business continued to achieve high-quality development, with the number of instant delivery orders increasing by 24% to 21.9 billion. MEITUAN's flash purchase orders continued to grow, with an annual order growth rate exceeding 40% year-on-year

MEITUAN 2023 Financial Report: Instant delivery orders reached 21.9 billion, with MEITUAN Flash Purchase orders growing by over 40%

美团 2023 年年净利润 138.6 亿元人民币，市场预期 128.4 亿元人民币。

美团第四季度营收 737.0 亿元人民币，预估 727 亿元人民币。

ZX INC(09890) rose 29.7%, with a trading turnover 79.2 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 49.6%. LUFAX(06623) rose 20%, with a trading turnover 31.1 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 52.5%. CHINA RUYI(00136) rose 19.21%, with a trading turnover 572.3 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 22%.

Top 10 HK Stock Gainers (3.22)

HENDERSON LAND(00012) rose 2.39%, with a trading turnover 258.9 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 2.1%. CKI HOLDINGS(01038) rose 1.53%, with a trading turnover 158.1 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 7.9%. LI AUTO(02015) fell 10.88%, with a trading turnover 2.5 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date fell 18.2%. CK ASSET(01113) fell 10.73%, with a trading turnover 1.5 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date fell 16.2%.

Top 5 HK Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (3.22)

ZENGAME(02660) fell 24.63%, with a trading turnover 56.0 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 36.7%. OOIL(00316) fell 16.71%, with a trading turnover 627.8 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 8.5%. ESR(01821) fell 16.1%, with a trading turnover 157.5 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 31%.

Top 10 HK Stock Losers (3.22)

Overnight hottest contracts: Apple puts with a March 22 expiration date and a strike price of $170, with a trading volume of nearly 180,000 contracts; Apple calls with a strike price of $175 also traded over 170,000 contracts. Options on Aochiya surged to 740,000 contracts, with 97.6% being call options; Call options with a June 21 expiration date and a strike price of $40 surged to nearly 150,000 contracts

US Stock Options | Apple's trading volume doubled, Micron Tech also doubled!

This year's production capacity has been sold out, and most of next year's production capacity has already been booked

Micron Technology supplies NVIDIA: Production capacity is expected to be fully sold out this year and next

The "battle" between Apple and the Department of Justice will be a marathon that concerns antitrust law reform and updates, impacting the fate of the technology industry