苹果宣布在欧盟地区打破 App Store 的垄断现状，允许其他企业在 iOS 系统上建立第三方应用商店。这项改变是为了配合欧盟即将生效的数字市场法案，阻止科技巨头获得不正当的竞争优势。然而，苹果的新规设置了不低的准入门槛和核心技术使用费，使开发者难以获得实惠。这场苹果、开发者与监管部门之间的战争才刚刚打响。

欧盟反垄断「撬开」苹果，结果坑苦了开发者

天风证券认为，2024 年美股走势的核心是宽松预期下的估值扩张，目前对于美股未来表现的主要质疑是估值偏贵。但在货币政策转向后，只要经济没有深度衰退风险，美股理应通过估值扩张上涨。

理解市场 | 今年美股，涨还是跌？

Last Friday's hottest contract: Tesla put options with a same-day expiration and a strike price of $185 traded over 130,000 contracts! Chip stock options were also hot: Nvidia call options with a strike price of $610 traded over 100,000 contracts; AMD put options with a strike price of $177.5 traded nearly 100,000 contracts.

US Stock Options | Tesla's trading volume sharply declines, market shifts from call to put! Intel's stock price plummets, trading volume surges!

Apple is trying to maintain its "walled garden" through a series of strategies, but these strategies seem to be increasingly causing dissatisfaction among regulatory agencies and other stakeholders.

Cracks appear in Apple's "walled garden"

国务院国资委将全面实施 “一企一策” 考核，对中央企业进行市值管理考核，量化评价控股上市公司市场表现，评价企业市值管理工作举措和成效，加强对违规事项的惩戒，引导企业重视内在价值和市场表现。

国务院国资委将全面实施 “一企一策” 考核

港股收盘，恒指收涨 0.78%，科指收涨 0.54%，中字头表现亮眼，中国联通收涨约 2.4%，药明系带动医药板块整体承压，药明康德跌超 10%。

Morgan Stanley believes that out of the expected lithium mine production of approximately 1.48 million tons of LCE in 2024, one-fourth of the lithium production costs exceed 80,000 yuan per ton. Among them, approximately 150,000 tons of LCE have already incurred losses.

Morgan Stanley: Oversupply of lithium mines will intensify, 80,000 yuan will be an important threshold.

最近一周股市表现出冰火两重天，上证综指反弹至 2900 点以上，创业板指继续下跌。文章讨论了股市行业差异以及系统从融资市向投资市转变的原因。预计 2024 年牛市将以政策牛市和结构性牛市为基础，与整个股市游戏规则的转变有关。文章指出，消费板块开始启动是确立本轮政策牛市的信号。弗里德曼的消费函数理论认为，市场预期股票市场上涨时，消费股会受益。因此，在牛市中，消费股会有两波上涨：市场形成共识、消费股涨预期和牛市持续一段时间、消费股涨业绩。疫情放开后的行情也被提及。

关于一轮牛市确立的基本条件

国内首个口服司美格鲁肽片获批上市，预计将增大 GLP-1 类药物市场规模，进一步打开国内减重市场。国投证券指出，诺和诺德的口服司美格鲁肽片借助创新技术解决了多肽类药物口服吸收难题，可提高生物利用度约 100 倍。目前国内已有多家企业布局 GLP-1 药物，其中华东医药和仁会生物的减重适应症已获批上市。礼来和诺和诺德的减重适应症已进入 NDA 阶段。此次上市将给国内减重市场带来重大影响。

国内首个口服司美格鲁肽片获批对市场意味着什么？

「幻兽帕鲁」出圈最重要的原因在于，它让用户们狠狠体验了一把 “资本视角”，很多玩家笑称 “自己是打工人农奴翻身，在游戏里当家做主了”。

10 天狂赚 13 亿的「幻兽帕鲁」凭什么？

Are the current market catalysts sufficient? If not, what can truly lead to a trend reversal instead of just a temporary rebound? Why are technology and small-cap growth stocks benefiting more after the unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut by the Chinese central bank? Should we pay attention to state-owned enterprises?

Understanding the Market | Has the Hong Kong Stock Market Reached a Turning Point?

1 月 29 日，市场传言称香港第一只比特币现货 ETF 已报香港证监会申请，申请机构为嘉实基金。记者向相关人士确认获知，嘉实国际资产管理有限公司确已向香港证监会提交了比特币现货 ETF 的申请。嘉实国际为嘉实基金在香港设立的资管子公司，是香港第一家提交比特币现货 ETF 申请的机构。

嘉实国际申请香港首只比特币现货 ETF

1 月份汽车销售低迷的原因主要有三个方面：首先，12 月份的大促销活动消化了部分需求；其次，很多优惠政策的截止日期设定在 1 月 1 日，导致购车优惠不够吸引消费者；最后，年底观望现象仍然严重，消费者对换车需求、经济状况和职业稳定性持观望态度。这些因素导致了 1 月份汽车消费减缓。

1 月份汽车销售为什么这么低迷？

12 月工业企业利润点评：工业库存小幅回升，服务业 “补库” 率先启动。根据申万宏源的数据，12 月服务业库存指标改善幅度更大，且服务业补库可能快于工业。若服务业库存加快回升，可能成为今年 GDP 增速好于预期的一个重要来源。同时，12 月工业利润增速回落，营收与成本出现恶化。

12 月工业企业利润点评：工业库存小幅回升 服务业 “补库” 率先启动

In the coming week, major US tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon will release their earnings reports one after another. The key performance data of these tech companies will become the focus of attention in the global stock market. Microsoft is one of the most anticipated earnings reports, with analysts predicting a nearly 16% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the second quarter of its 2024 fiscal year. The performance of Microsoft may have an impact on the risk appetite of global stock investors. If the earnings report exceeds expectations, it may boost the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500, indicating that a "full bull market" may be just a matter of time.

Earnings Report Preview | "New Stock King" Microsoft's performance is about to be released! The revenue-generating effect of AI is highly anticipated by all.

交银国际发布研究报告称，将小鹏汽车-W 目标价由 39.3 港元，调低 30.5% 至 27.3 港元，投资评级维持 “沽出”。公司 2024 年前 3 周总销量每月下跌 59%，表现低迷。新车型 MPVX9 将成为 1 季度唯一的销量亮点。小鹏子品牌 MONA 将在 2024 年第三季上市，但其在 15 万级规模和成本控制能力上不如传统车企。交银国际预计自主品牌将以降价刺激销量，其他车企将跟随。

交银国际：维持小鹏汽车-W“沽出” 评级 目标价削 30.5% 至 27.3 港元

2023 年港股回购创新高，回购金额高达 1259.26 亿港元，同比上涨 20%，其中腾讯回购金额占四成比例，回购金额达到 484 亿港元。

港股回购创新高

HTSC released a research report stating that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will continue to promote measures to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and strengthen financing support. The regulatory authorities are gradually implementing the details of financing support for the real estate market, and these policies can boost industry confidence and provide valuation recovery space for the real estate sector. In the next step, the regulatory authorities will accelerate the implementation of policies, hold deployment meetings, require banks to take action as soon as possible, and guide the implementation of management requirements for commercial property loans. At the same time, they will further optimize personal loan policies to support the optimization of down payment ratios, loan interest rates, and other personal loan financial services.

HTSC: Policy boosts market confidence and provides valuation recovery space for the real estate sector.

* 大摩相信华住股价 60 日内将升

香港差饷物业估价署数据显示，去年 12 月本港私人住宅楼价指数报 312.1，环比跌近 1.4%，连跌 8 个月，为自 2017 年 1 月以来新低，2023 年全年累跌 6.8%。中小型单位 (100 平方米以下) 售价指数环比跌 1.4%，全年累跌 6.7%；较大面积单位 (100 平方米或以上) 售价指数环比跌 0.5%，2023 年全年累跌 7%。租金指数方面，去年 12 月私人住宅租金指数升至 187.1，环比升 0.86%，连升 11 个月，2023 年全年累升 6.6%。

香港差估署：去年 12 月楼价指数环比跌 1.4% 2023 年全年累跌 6.8%

大和证券 SMBC 株式会社将药明生物评级上调至买进，目标价 33 港元。

麦格理：上调快手目标价至 61 港元，预计未来毛利率稳定扩张。

* 美银证券升 Alphabet 目标价至 175 美元 上季收入为亮点

* 美银证券升 Alphabet 目标价至 175 美元  上季收入为亮点

* 大摩降美团目标价至 85 元 维持谨慎看法

* 大摩降美团目标价至 85 元  维持谨慎看法

After the liquidation order, how will Evergrande repay its debts? How much debt is likely to be collected by the creditor? What are the main challenges?

EXPLAINER-What happens next after China Evergrande ordered to liquidate?

港股汽车股走势分化，蔚来汽车涨近 4%，理想汽车涨近 2%，零跑汽车跌超 4%，比亚迪股份跌近 3%。

贝莱德比特币现货 ETF 资产管理规模突破 20 亿美元，二月份可能成为比特币强劲的月份。南华早报报道 OPNX 在香港设立办事处，彭博社称截至 2023 年底，FTX 现金储备增至 44 亿美元。德意志银行调查显示超三分之一的受访者预计比特币将跌破 2 万美元。华尔街日报称阿拉斯加和佛罗里达州已禁止 Binance.US 开展业务。Bitwise 首席执行官表示比特币 ETF "BITB"资产管理规模已超过 5.5 亿美元。CFTC 敦促投资者警惕 AI 创建的加密资产套利算法。灰度比特币持有量减少到 50.2 万。智库警告美国在 CBDC 进展方面落后于其他国家。CFTC 主席表示监管机构需要对加密货币行业进行监督。香港证监会指出 “Floki Stake 计划” 和 “TokenFi Stake 计划” 未获得在香港公开销售的授权。

每日数字货币动态汇总

* 里昂：联想集团涉美国政府业务极微 股价下跌提供买入机会

* 里昂：联想集团涉美国政府业务极微  股价下跌提供买入机会

港股中国恒大、恒大汽车、恒大物业盘中停牌。此前，香港法院向中国恒大发出清盘令。

This week will be the most important week on Wall Street since 2024! Central bank policy meetings will be the focus, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The earnings season for US stocks is entering its peak stage, with most of the "Big Seven" companies set to release their performance reports. In addition, key data such as the US non-farm payroll report for January will also be released, with expectations that the data will support signs of a soft landing.

Super Week for US Stocks! What to Focus on?

药明康德 AH 齐跌，A 股跌超 9% 逼近跌停，H 股跌超 3%。

ARKK achieved a staggering 68% return last year, not only ranking in the top 1% among similar funds, but also achieving the best annual performance in the history of the fund. However, in the previous years of 2021 and 2022, the fund suffered an annualized loss of 50%.

2023 Big Winner "Sister Wood": Fed Rate Cut Boosts Tech Stocks

The Bank of Japan has gradually taken a hawkish stance, while the European Central Bank has overall taken a dovish stance. In this policy cycle, as market financing gradually shifts from the yen to the euro, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase suggest borrowing euros to purchase high-risk, high-yield currencies in order to seek interest rate differentials.

Replacing the yen as the new "financing currency"? Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase both bearish on the euro

* 花旗：药明康德或技术性反弹 惟问题解决前长期投资信心可能会被削弱

* 花旗：药明康德或技术性反弹  惟问题解决前长期投资信心可能会被削弱

药明系港股集体回暖，药明生物涨超 3%。药明合联涨 4.17%，药明康德上涨 0.08%。消息面上，上周业内流传美国拟出台《生物安全法案》，药明生物回应称法案仍有待审议变更，药明康德称业务发展不会对国家安全构成风险，药明合联表示对变动原因不知情。公司确认继续正常经营，业务和财务状况无重大变动。

药明系港股集体回暖 药明生物涨超 3%

Evergrande's stock price once fell more than 18%, as of the time of writing, it has fallen 12.62% to HKD 0.18, with a turnover of HKD 3.9702 million. On the news front, the Hong Kong High Court held a hearing today on Evergrande's liquidation application and regulatory order. It is understood that such a regulatory order means that the court will oversee the liquidation process, which may include the appointment of a liquidator. Industry insiders analyze that according to the usual judgment process, if Evergrande cannot propose a solution acceptable to the court and creditors, it may face bankruptcy. Data shows that as of June 30, 2023, Evergrande's main revenue was approximately CNY 128.18 billion, with a total net loss of CNY 39.25 billion. Evergrande's cash and cash equivalents are approximately CNY 4.047 billion. The total assets are CNY 1.744 trillion, of which current assets are CNY 1.5785 trillion, and total liabilities are CNY 2.3882 trillion.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | EVERGRANDE's stock fell more than 18% at one point, and the liquidation hearing will be held today.

The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting this week, and it is expected to "stay put" for now, with the first rate cut likely to take place in March. Chairman Powell's speech will be the focus of market attention, and investors will closely watch whether he mentions a rate cut. Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be five rate cuts by 2024, with the first one possibly in March. In addition, inflation and labor market performance will also be important factors in the decision-making process. In summary, investors will closely monitor the Fed's decisions and Chairman Powell's speech.

The heavyweight Federal Reserve interest rate decision is coming! Maintaining the status quo is the consensus, and the market is closely watching for any guidance on interest rate cuts.

港股恒大系个股走弱，中国恒大跌超 12%，恒大汽车跌超 10%，恒大物业现跌 1.25%。

港股恒大系个股走弱 中国恒大跌超 12%

恒生科技指数盘初拉升，涨幅扩大至 2%，恒指涨 1.5%。地产股、科网股涨幅居前。

药明康德早盘继续低开，跌逾 4%。公司发布澄清公告表示，药明康德的业务发展不会对任何国家的安全构成风险，始终遵守各运营地所在国的法律法规。

药明康德继续低开 公司坚信不会对任何国家的安全构成风险

苹果公司计划于 2024 年 3 月起，在 27 个欧盟国家开放侧载、第三方应用商店、非 WebKit 引擎浏览器、开放 NFC 等服务，并引入 600 多个新的 API。这一举措是苹果被迫适应欧盟的法律法规，限制范围仅限于欧洲市场。该变化可能对用户的隐私和安全体验产生影响。这是关于苹果公司开放欧洲市场应用商店和 NFC 的消息。

iPhone 面向欧洲市场开放应用商店、NFC：国行无缘

亚洲股市上涨，中东局势导致油价飙升。美国军人死亡事件引发市场关注，但数据和央行会议将占据主导地位。美元持稳，美联储或将保持耐心。股市指数期货有所下跌，日本股市上涨，韩国股市也有所增长。总之，市场将在中东冲突风险和其他重要事件之间权衡。

亚市早盘：亚股走高 中东局势导致油价上涨

2021 年是小米手机市场份额上的巅峰；把小米送上业务巅峰的是华为，把小米拉下宝座的是华为剥离出来的荣耀

公司解读 | 小米手机出货量为什么跌得这么厉害？

Tesla announced fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations, while also warning that delivery growth in 2024 may be significantly lower than in 2023. Gene Munster and Brian Barker from Deepwater Asset Management pointed out that the slowdown in Tesla's sales growth this year could be attributed to the "Osborne effect." They stated that Tesla has revealed plans to launch a more affordable new model, which justifies the downward adjustment in growth expectations for 2024. Although Tesla's outlook did not include more details, Munster believes that Tesla's growth story will resume in the second half of 2025. Currently, the market generally expects Tesla's revenue in 2024 to be $110.5 billion, with earnings per share of $3.26.

Tesla's weak prospects disappoint the public, analysts argue: it's mostly the "Osborne effect" at play.

新加坡金管局维持货币区间的斜率、宽度和中点不变。

药明合联港交所公告：不知悉股价及交投量异常变动原因，集团继续正常经营业务。

平准资金以相对无偏的方式为市场缓解流动性压力，但市场多数机构投资者对 A 股的反弹行情并不舒适。国家队的歪打正着背后是长期基本面发生的变化。市场结构产生的不同影响是一面镜子，它照射出了市场过去拥挤的地方。国内以去金融化为核心的基本面变化正在发生。实物韧性凸显，中游制造业可能面临利润空间的压缩，消费。

民生策略：平准力量正在以相对无偏的方式为市场缓解流动性压力

Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Tesla's price reduction strategy not only erodes profits but also fails to significantly increase revenue. Wedbush analysts lowered Tesla's target price by 10% on Thursday, but it is still more than 50% higher than Wednesday's closing price. They referred to the price reduction as a "Category 4 hurricane" in the near term, but maintained their buy rating and remained optimistic about its long-term performance.

Tesla's drop of over 20% at the beginning of the year is not enough? JPMorgan Chase warns of another 30% drop, while Wedbush cuts its target but still predicts a significant increase.

This week, the Federal Reserve will hold its first interest rate decision of the year, and the US non-farm payroll data and China's PMI will be released. Tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet-C, and Amazon will announce their earnings. QDII funds are making a comeback, reducing their holdings of US stocks and increasing their holdings of Chinese stocks. The CEO of LV has once again surpassed Elon Musk to reclaim the title of the world's richest person. The Boeing crisis continues to escalate. CATL and Didi have officially announced the establishment of a joint venture company for battery swapping.

Breakfast | Perhaps the most intense "stock market risk week" is coming, mainland QDII funds increase their holdings of Hong Kong stocks.

前 13 只股票推动了标准普尔指数今年迄今的整体上涨，其中前 5 只股票贡献了约 70%。