SPDR S&P 500 hits another all-time high, chip giants NVIDIA and AMD reach new highs, while Tesla plunges over 10% dragging down the Nasdaq.

The data released on Thursday showed that despite the Federal Reserve's high interest rates, the US economy remains resilient: the initial annualized growth rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 3.3%, slower than the third quarter but still higher than expected. Consumer spending was the main driver, and the core PCE inflation index favored by the Federal Reserve grew at an annualized rate of 2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the third quarter and in line with expectations. New home sales in December grew by 8% higher than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rebounded higher than expected but still close to multi-year lows.

After the GDP data was released, the market's probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March increased compared to Wednesday. Commentators said that the probability of a rate cut by the Fed and achieving a soft landing has increased. Although the core PCE has reached the Fed's inflation target of 2%, the Fed still has the motivation to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. The GDP data is from last year, but it reinforces the logic that the Fed will adopt a cautious approach this year and gradually cut interest rates.

After the GDP announcement, US bond yields fell, with the yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, falling more than 10 basis points from the daily high, and US stocks opened higher. Technology stocks, which have been driving the rise of US stocks in recent days, performed differently during the trading session. The S&P 500 continued its momentum of hitting historical highs in the previous days. Microsoft, Google, and Meta reached new closing highs. Earnings reports continued to significantly impact leading stocks, with Tesla, which reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter performance and warned of a significant slowdown in production growth in 2024 compared to 2023, plummeting more than 10%, dragging the Nasdaq down during the trading session and almost failing to maintain its upward trend. The momentum of the two AI chip giants diminished, with AMD continuing to hit new highs while Nvidia briefly turned negative during the trading session.

After the European Central Bank meeting, as expected by the market, it announced that it will continue to keep interest rates unchanged and did not indicate that policymakers are considering easing monetary policy. ECB President Lagarde said that it is too early to discuss rate cuts and there may be one rate cut in the summer. Market participants believe that this meeting revealed a dovish inclination, with the ECB acknowledging the downward economic growth and a decrease in inflation compared to expectations in December. Although the ECB has not yet discussed rate cuts, Lagarde has opened the door to quickly cutting rates if the data is appropriate.

After the ECB meeting, investors' expectations of rate cuts increased. European government bond prices rebounded during the trading session, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year German bond deviating from the high since early December, and the yield on the two-year German bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, plunged during the trading session, falling more than 10 basis points from the daily high. The euro quickly erased its intraday gains and turned lower. The euro weakened, coupled with positive US GDP data, which boosted the US dollar index, approaching the six-week high set on Tuesday.

In the commodity market, gold rose with the support of declining US bond yields, but it fluctuated and experienced a slight rebound under the pressure of a stronger US dollar. International crude oil accelerated its rise, reaching a high point in nearly a month and achieving the best single-day performance in three weeks. This was mainly due to the positive impact of the US GDP data on the oil market's demand outlook, as well as the unexpected sharp reduction of over 9 million barrels in US crude oil inventories announced by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, coupled with a decrease in crude oil production compared to the previous week, falling from the historical high set the week before. It is commented that due to the impact of cold weather in the northern region of the United States, domestic oil production in the US has fallen to a six-month low.

S&P 500 hits new all-time highs for five consecutive days, chip stocks turn lower intraday, Tesla sees largest decline in a year, Microsoft, Google, Meta hit new closing highs

The three major US stock indices opened higher for the second consecutive day. In early trading, the S&P 500 index rose by about 0.6% and hit a new intraday all-time high for five consecutive trading days. It gave up most of the gains at midday but approached the daily high at the end of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 230 points, or over 0.6%, in early trading. It briefly turned lower at midday but expanded its gains to over 200 points at the end of the session, refreshing the daily high. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose over 0.7% when it hit a new daily high in late morning trading. It turned lower at midday, falling over 0.3% when it hit a new daily low, but locked in gains at the end of the session.

In the end, the three major indices closed higher for the second day of the week. The Dow, which had fallen for two consecutive days, closed up 242.76 points, or 0.64%, at 38,049.13 points, refreshing the closing all-time high set on Monday. The S&P 500 closed up 0.53% at 4,894.16 points, hitting a new closing all-time high for five consecutive days. The Nasdaq closed up 0.18% at 15,510.5 points, hitting a new closing high since January 4, 2022, for the fourth consecutive day, along with the S&P 500's five-day winning streak.

The Nasdaq 100, which is dominated by technology stocks, closed up 0.1%. It briefly turned lower at midday. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, closed up 0.39%. It briefly turned lower at midday. Both indices hit new closing all-time highs for six consecutive trading days. The Russell 2000, which is dominated by value stocks, closed up 0.71%, ending its two-day decline and not falling further from the closing high set on Monday since January 8.

Major US stock indices closed higher on Thursday, but some turned lower intraday. The Nasdaq maintained its gains with an expanded increase at the end of the session.

Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only two declined on Thursday, with non-essential consumer goods, including Tesla, falling by over 1%, and healthcare falling by over 0.2%. Among the nine sectors that rose, energy led the gains, driven by a sharp rise in crude oil, up over 2%. Communication services, including Netflix and Google, rose nearly 1.9%, while utilities, real estate, and materials all rose over 1%. Leading technology stocks continued to rise, while Tesla, which announced disappointing quarterly results after the market closed on Wednesday, fell more than 10% in early trading. At midday, it hit a new daily low, falling by about 13.4%, and closed down 12.1%, marking the largest intraday and closing decline since January 3, 2023, and a two-day consecutive decline, reaching the lowest closing level since May 19, 2023.

Tesla fell 12% in a day, hitting the largest decline in a year and reaching an eight-month low.

Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, turned higher in early trading, and Microsoft also rose more than 1% in early trading. Both closed up about 0.6%, setting a new closing high for three consecutive days. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, rose more than 2.9% in early trading, reaching a new intraday high, and closed up 2.1%, setting a new closing high for two consecutive days. Netflix, which surged more than 10% after its earnings report on Wednesday, saw its momentum ease, closing up 3.1% and continuing to hit a two-year high for four consecutive days. Amazon briefly turned lower at midday and closed up nearly 0.6%, setting a new closing high for three consecutive days since April 2022. Apple, on the other hand, rose 0.9% in early trading, but its stock price turned lower at midday after announcing that it would allow EU users to choose default browsers, app stores, and payment apps in response to antitrust regulatory threats. It closed down nearly 0.2%, marking a two-day decline from the closing high since December 19.

Overall, chip stocks turned lower during the trading session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX both rose about 1.9% in early trading but turned lower at midday, ending their five-day consecutive gains and falling from the closing historical high set for four consecutive days. Among individual stocks, Nvidia rose 2.2% in early trading, hit a new daily high, turned lower at midday, and closed up 0.4%, setting a new closing high for six consecutive trading days. AMD rose 3.7% in early trading, turned lower in the short term at midday, and closed up nearly 1.2%, setting a new closing high for two consecutive days. At the close, Micron Technology rose more than 1%, Intel rose 0.9%, while Broadcom fell nearly 2% and Texas Instruments fell more than 1%, continuing its second consecutive day of decline after announcing its earnings report.

Some AI concept stocks fell against the market trend. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose more than 1%, setting a new closing high for five consecutive days. Adobe (ADBE) rose more than 2%, while C3.ai (AI) fell 1%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) and BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 2%, and Palantir (PLTR) fell 1.7%.

Due to Tesla's sharp decline, the overall performance of the seven major technology stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla, fell on Thursday, giving back most of the gains from Netflix's earnings report on Wednesday.

Due to Tesla's sharp decline, the seven major technology stocks fell overall on Thursday, giving back most of the gains from Netflix's earnings report on Wednesday. Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks that outperformed the market in the past two days have fallen back. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 1.1% in early trading, but later turned down and closed down 0.1%, temporarily departing from the closing high since January 12th that was refreshed for two consecutive days. Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ also turned down in early trading, closing down about 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. The three new forces in the car-making industry continued to fall together. At the close, XPeng Motors fell more than 2%, Li Auto fell 0.9%, and NIO fell 0.5%. Among other individual stocks, at the close, Dada Group fell nearly 6%, Bilibili fell nearly 4%, Kingsoft Cloud fell more than 2%, Alibaba and Baidu fell nearly 2%, Pinduoduo fell less than 0.1%, while New Oriental Education rose more than 6%, rising for two consecutive days after announcing its earnings report. NetEase rose more than 3%, and JD.com and Tencent rose more than 1% each.

In the aviation sector, it was reported that Alaska Airlines suffered a loss of USD 150 million due to the grounding of the 737 MAX-9 and the US regulatory authority FAA suspended the production expansion plan for all 737 Max models. Boeing (BA) fell 7.4% in early trading and closed down 5.7%; the three airlines with better-than-expected fourth-quarter results failed to rise together, with American Airlines (AAL) closing up 10.3%, Alaska Airlines (ALK) closing up 4.5%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) rising more than 5% in early trading but turning down in the afternoon, closing down 2.3%.

Among other stocks that announced their earnings reports, IBM (IBM), whose fourth-quarter results and full-year revenue guidance were better than expected, rose more than 10% during the trading session and closed up 9.5%; Blackstone (BX), whose fourth-quarter profit grew 4% higher than expected, rose nearly 4% during the trading session and closed up 2.4%.

In Europe, technology stocks continued to support the rise of European stocks, and the pan-European stock index rose for two consecutive days. The STOXX 600 index reached its highest closing level since December 27th, with a slower rise compared to the nearly 1.2% increase on Wednesday, which was the largest increase in two months. The main European national stock indexes failed to rise together, with German, French, and British stocks rising for two consecutive days, while Italian and Spanish stock indexes, affected by banking stocks, fell back.

Among the sectors of the STOXX 600, the technology sector, which rose nearly 5% on Wednesday, rose more than 1.7%, leading for two consecutive days, thanks to ASML, the Dutch lithography machine giant, which rose 4.6% after a nearly 10% increase in its stock price after the earnings report on Wednesday, continuing to reach a new closing high. The banking sector, on the other hand, fell 0.9% against the market, with Bankinter, a Spanish bank that saw its fourth-quarter net profit fall below expectations, plunging 6%, and UniCredit, an Italian bank whose rating was downgraded by Deutsche Bank, falling 1.8%. Among other individual stocks, Adidas, which received positive news about its annual performance at an analyst conference, rose 5.7%; Nokia, whose fourth-quarter operating profit exceeded expectations, rose 11.2%.

German 2-year bond yields plunge more than 10 basis points after ECB decision, US 2-year Treasury yields fall 10 basis points after US GDP.

European government bond prices rose across the board, with yields falling during the European Central Bank's announcement of its decision. At the end of the bond market, the yield on the 10-year German government bond closed at 2.29%, down about 5 basis points during the day. It had risen above 2.37% in the early European session and before the release of US GDP data, reaching a seven-week high. During Lagarde's speech, it fell to 2.28%, hitting a daily low. The yield on the 2-year German bond closed at 2.61%, down about 9 basis points during the day. It touched 2.60% during Lagarde's speech, hitting a daily low, and fell about 13 basis points from its intraday high, far from the intraday high since December 1st. The yield on the 10-year UK benchmark government bond closed at 3.98%, down about 3 basis points during the day. The yield on the 2-year UK bond closed at 4.36%, down about 3 basis points during the day.

The yield on the 10-year US benchmark government bond reached a daily high above 4.19% in the early Asian session, rising nearly 2 basis points during the day. It briefly rose above 4.18% when US GDP was announced, but quickly fell. The US stock market fell to around 4.12% at midday, down nearly 6 basis points during the day. It did not approach the high since the first day of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 13th, when it reached nearly 4.20%. At the end of the bond market, it was about 4.12%, down nearly 6 basis points during the day, ending the two-day decline.

The yield on the 2-year US Treasury, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, rose above 4.40% when US GDP was announced, hitting a daily high, and rose nearly 3 basis points during the day. It then fluctuated downward, with the US stock market approaching 4.30% at midday, falling slightly more than 10 basis points from its intraday high, far from the high since January 5th, when it approached 4.42%. It then fell further, reaching about 4.29% at the end of the bond market, down nearly 9 basis points during the day, after rising for three consecutive days.

Yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined after the release of GDP data on Thursday, with short-term yields leading the decline.

The US dollar index, which tracks the exchange rates of six major currencies including the euro, briefly approached 103.10 in early European trading, hitting a daily low and falling 0.1% during the day. After the European Central Bank's meeting and the release of US GDP data, it continued to rise, with the US stock market approaching 103.70 at midday, rising more than 0.4% during the day and approaching the intraday high since December 13th, when it rose above 103.80.

At the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the US dollar index was slightly below 103.50, up more than 0.2% during the day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose nearly 0.1%, and both the US dollar index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index resumed their upward trend after a two-day pause. The US dollar index rebounded after the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday.

Among non-US currencies, the euro against the US dollar reached a high of 1.0900 during early European trading, rising nearly 0.2% intraday. However, it continued to decline after the ECB decision, with the US stock market approaching a low of 1.0820 during midday trading, down nearly 0.6% intraday, and falling from the one-week high above 1.0930 reached on Wednesday. The British pound also turned lower during trading, with the US stock market approaching a low of 1.2680 during midday trading, down more than 0.3% intraday, and falling from the high reached on January 12 after the release of UK PMI data. The Japanese yen, which had a strong rebound and rose more than 1% at one point on Wednesday, turned lower during trading. The US dollar against the Japanese yen fell below 147.10 to a new low before the ECB decision, but rebounded continuously after the decision was announced. The US stock market rose during early trading, with the US dollar against the Japanese yen rising above 147.90 at one point, up nearly 0.3% intraday, and rebounding from the one-week low below 146.70 reached on Wednesday.

Offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar rose to a high of 7.1559 during early Asian trading, but then turned lower and continued to decline. The US stock market approached a low of 7.1890 during early trading, falling 330 points from the high, and falling from the intraday high above 7.15 reached on January 5. At 5:59 am Beijing time on January 26, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.1799 yuan, down 176 points from the New York closing on Wednesday, ending a four-day rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight decline during trading. It rose above $40,300 during European trading on Thursday, but fell below $40,000 before the ECB decision and continued to decline. The US stock market fell below $39,600 during midday trading, approaching the intraday low below $39,500 reached on December 3. At the close of the US stock market, it was above $39,800, with a gain of about 0.4% in the past 24 hours.

Crude oil rose 3% to achieve the largest three-week gain and a two-month high.

International crude oil futures maintained an upward trend throughout Thursday, with US WTI crude oil rising to $77.51 and Brent crude oil rising to $82.57 during midday trading, both up about 3.2% intraday.

In the end, both crude oil prices rose for two consecutive days, achieving the largest closing gain since January 3. WTI March crude oil futures rose 3.02% to $77.36 per barrel, and Brent March crude oil futures rose 2.99% to $82.43 per barrel. Both reached the highest closing level in nearly two months since November 29. Gasoline and natural gas futures in the United States continued to fluctuate. NYMEX February gasoline futures rose nearly 2.5% for two consecutive days, closing at $2.2644 per gallon, hitting a high not seen since November 29th when it reached $2.2836 per gallon; NYMEX February natural gas futures rose for two consecutive days and then fell 2.65%, closing at $2.5710 per million British thermal units, failing to break away from the low of $2.42 per million British thermal units on Monday and hitting a low not seen since December 20th when it reached $2.347 per million British thermal units.

WTI crude oil in the United States rose more than 3% during the session, reaching a new high since the end of November.

Copper and nickel in London rise for three consecutive weeks to a four-week high, tin hits a five-month high, gold rebounds slightly

Most London base metal futures continued to rise on Thursday. Tin rose for four consecutive days, hitting a five-month high for two consecutive days. Copper, nickel, and aluminum rose for three consecutive days, with copper and nickel hitting new highs since the end of December for two consecutive days, and aluminum hitting a two-week high. Zinc, which rose for two consecutive days to a three-week high, fell slightly, while lead continued to fall from the two-month high set on Tuesday.

New York gold futures fluctuated several times on Thursday, falling to $2004 per ounce, a new low for the day, when the US GDP was announced, and then quickly rebounded. The US stock market hit a new high for the day at $2025.6 per ounce, rising nearly 0.5% during the day, but then fell during the midday session.

In the end, COMEX February gold futures rose 0.09%, closing at $2017.8 per ounce, marking the second consecutive day of gains this week after Tuesday, but failing to recover from the closing low since December 13th, and not erasing the decline on Wednesday.

Spot gold initially fell below $2011 per ounce, hitting a new low for the day, and then quickly rebounded. The US stock market rose above $2025 per ounce at the beginning of the session, rising nearly 0.6% during the day, but then fell briefly during the midday session. The US stock market closed slightly below $2020 per ounce, rising about 0.3% during the day.

Spot gold briefly tested $2025 per ounce and then fell back.