Breakfast | Perhaps the most intense "stock market risk week" is coming, mainland QDII funds increase their holdings of Hong Kong stocks.
This week, the Federal Reserve will hold its first interest rate decision of the year, and the US non-farm payroll data and China's PMI will be released. Tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet-C, and Amazon will announce their earnings. QDII funds are making a comeback, reducing their holdings of US stocks and increasing their holdings of Chinese stocks. The CEO of LV has once again surpassed Elon Musk to reclaim the title of the world's richest person. The Boeing crisis continues to escalate. CATL and Didi have officially announced the establishment of a joint venture company for battery swapping.
Good morning! A wonderful day starts with making money.
Market: Overnight and this morning
US stock index futures opened lower on Monday, with Nasdaq futures down 0.3%.
Tensions escalated in the Middle East, causing Brent crude oil prices to rise by 1.3% and WTI crude oil to rise by 1%. Spot gold and silver opened higher. Three deaths and 25 injuries were reported in an attack on a US military base in the Middle East, marking the first time that US military personnel have been killed in an attack in the region since the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict began. Houthi militants attacked an oil tanker carrying Russian fuel for the Tok Group with missiles last Friday.
Events and data preview for this week
The Fed's first interest rate decision of the year, non-farm payrolls, China's PMI
Tuesday: US November S&P/CS20 City Home Price Index YoY; US December JOLTs Job Openings; US January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Alphabet, Microsoft, and AMD will release their earnings reports.
Wednesday: China's January official manufacturing PMI; US January ADP Employment Change; Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from the March monetary policy meeting. Boeing and Qualcomm will release their earnings reports.
Thursday: The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference with Chairman Powell. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, release the meeting minutes, and publish the Monetary Policy Report. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. China's January Caixin Manufacturing PMI; US January Markit Manufacturing PMI Final; US January ISM Manufacturing PMI; US December Construction Spending. Apple, Amazon, and Meta will release their earnings reports.
Friday: US January Unemployment Rate; US January Nonfarm Payrolls; US January 1-Year Inflation Rate Expectations; US December Factory Orders MoM. ExxonMobil and Chevron will release their earnings reports.
What happened to blue-chip stocks and hot stocks
LV's owner regains the title of the world's richest person, surpassing Musk again, with a difference in net worth of nearly $30 billion.
The Boeing crisis continues to escalate, and United Airlines is reported to have initiated negotiations with Airbus amid Boeing's delivery delays.
The Biden administration plans to announce the third subsidy worth $53 billion under the "Chip Act" by the end of March. It is expected that Intel, TSMC, and other leading semiconductor companies will receive billions of dollars to accelerate the construction of new factories across the United States.
TSMC will provide more details about its second factory in Kumamoto, Japan on February 6. It is reported that TSMC is expected to invest 2 trillion yen in the second factory.
QDII funds make a comeback by reducing their holdings of US stocks and increasing their holdings of Chinese stocks. QDII funds such as E Fund Global Growth Select QDII have reduced their allocation to US stocks, increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, and increased their allocation to A-shares. However, in the first three quarters of 2023, these QDII funds continued to reduce their allocation to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.
Huada Gene: The proposed BIOSECURE Act in the United States is still in the proposal stage, and there are multiple factual errors in the allegations against the company. It may be modified or terminated in the future, and there is still considerable uncertainty as to whether it will become law.
CATL and Didi announce the formal establishment of a joint venture for battery swapping.
Macro: Taking you around the world
"Federal Reserve megaphone" Nick Timiraos: The Federal Reserve is concerned about high real interest rates and will abandon its tightening bias this week.According to CME's "Fed Watch": There is a 97.9% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% this week, and a 2.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.
Stuart Paul: The conditions for an interest rate cut are already in place. It is expected that the Fed will begin lowering the federal funds rate target range in March to achieve a soft landing.
China Securities Regulatory Commission: All restricted shares lending will be temporarily suspended; the declaration of marketization of securities lending and borrowing will be adjusted from real-time availability to next-day availability, effective from March 18th.
Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges: Strategic investors are temporarily prohibited from lending allocated shares within the committed holding period, effective from January 29th.
China Eastern, Xinda, and Great Wall, three mainland AMCs, will merge into China Investment Corporation.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: China has become the world's largest exporter of automobiles, with a strong industrial chain and rapidly increasing relative competitiveness globally. This is the core driving force behind China's automotive globalization. Going global will become the next breakthrough in the next 10 years.