美国国债投资者正争相退出全球最大规模的长期限国债 ETF(美股代码：TLT)，导致该 ETF 连续八日下跌。在美联储和日本央行利率决定之前，降息预期降温施压美债价格，并削弱市场对安全资产的需求。该 ETF 已连续五周出现资金外流，约 20 亿美元流出。与此同时，风险资产表现乐观，股市和加密货币的 ETF 吸引资金。交易员们关注美联储是否会改变对今年降息预期，以及日本央行是否会放弃负利率政策。

降息预期接连遭重挫 长期限美债 ETF 连跌八日！高达 20 亿美元流出

As the electric vehicle craze subsides, traditional car stocks are once again in the limelight, with their undervaluation and stable cash flow beginning to attract investors. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of weakening demand for electric vehicles, General Motors, Ford Motor, and Stellantis may emerge as winners

As the electric vehicle craze fades, the stock prices of traditional American car manufacturers are on the rise

许家印被限制高消费，涉及借款合同纠纷案件。中国恒大目前存在多条被执行人信息，被执行总金额超过百亿元。恒大地产集团和恒大集团也存在大量被执行人信息。

许家印被限制高消费

高盛下调特斯拉目标价至 190 美元，原因是预测销量下降及生产问题。根据第三方市场数据，特斯拉今年首两个月交付量按年增幅高单位数，但按季比较则预期下降低双位数百分比。预计首季销量将低于早前估计的 47.5 万辆，目前调整为 43.5 万辆。高盛预测全年汽车交付量将按年增长 9.5% 至 198 万辆，较此前预测下调。高盛还将特斯拉的 2025 和 2026 年交付量预测下调，并调低了 2024 至 2026 年每股盈利预测。

高盛：下调特斯拉目标价至 190 美元，反映生产及市场遇逆风

奥特曼认为，算力将成为未来最宝贵的财富之一，会成为未来的 “货币”，人工智能的发展将是一场巨大的权力斗争。公司、组织、国家都可能为了争夺这份未来的 “货币” 而展开竞争。OpenAI 正在寻找新的董事会成员，希望引入具有不同专业背景的人才。GPT-5 将是一款新一代大语言模型，通用人工智能（AGI）的远景规划也备受关注。

奥特曼最新万字访谈：GPT-5 能力提升超乎想象，算力将成为未来最重要的货币

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, known as the "Stock God," has accelerated its pace of repurchasing its own stock, indicating Buffett's belief that the company's stock is undervalued. Before March 6th this year, Berkshire Hathaway repurchased shares equivalent to 3,808 Class A shares, amounting to approximately $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion. Last year, Berkshire Hathaway repurchased shares worth as much as $9.2 billion. Buffett stated that stock buybacks help in managing the company's cash and equivalents. Berkshire Hathaway currently holds $167.6 billion in cash and equivalents and aims to maintain a cash cushion of $30 billion. Berkshire Hathaway's stock price has risen by about 14% so far this year

Berkshire Hathaway accelerates its buyback pace. Will the followers of the "Stock God" continue to "recharge" their faith?

港股医药外包概念持续下挫，药明康德跌近 8%，药明生物跌近 6%，金斯瑞生物科技跌 5.5%，昭衍新药、康龙成化均跌 3%。

港股汽车股开盘直线下挫，理想汽车、蔚来汽车均跌超 7%，小鹏汽车跌近 6%，恒大汽车跌超 4.5%，零跑汽车跌近 4%，比亚迪股份、长城汽车均跌 2%。

比特币向下触及 66000 美元/枚，日内跌 2.02%。美元指数 DXY 升至 103.66，为自 3 月 6 日以来最高水平。英镑兑美元 GBP/USD 下跌至约两周低点 1.2713。

比特币向下触及 66000 美元/枚

全球基金重新押注中国股市，表明投资者对全球第二大股市信心复苏。挪威的 Skagen AS 及其美国同行 Boston Partners 近几个月都增持了在中国内地和香港上市的股票，理由是估值低廉、风险被大幅计入股价，以及盈利改善。此举也让人希望中国股市最近的反弹有持续支撑作用。全球投资者可能越来越相信中国股市，以及中国重振经济增长。

长期空头转为看涨 全球基金重新押注中国股市

Huang Renxun said, "Building a basic model of a general humanoid robot is one of the most exciting problems we can solve in the field of AI today."

Codename GROOT! NVIDIA is going to create "Universal Humanoid Robot Basic Model"

摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官警告称，打压美元的结构性力量可能会对美股造成波及。她表示，日本收益率曲线管理告一段落以及比特币和大宗商品价格上涨，显示美元的涨势 “可能已达极限”。她建议投资者要为美元态势可能转变做好准备，并关注美元走强与市盈率的相关性。

摩根士丹利：打压美元的结构性力量可能反过来波及美股

顺风车乘客完全感觉不到 AI 在开！此次 FSD Beta V12.3 突然开放给所有 FSD 用户，大概能说明特斯拉内部认为系统已经比较成熟，可以交付给车主用了。

特斯拉纯视觉 FSD 来了！这是一种什么体验？

NVIDIA announced the launch of the most powerful AI chip Blackwell, with 208 billion transistors, improving costs and energy consumption by 25 times compared to the previous generation, and also released the 6G research cloud platform. Qualcomm introduced the third-generation platform Snapdragon 8s mobile platform, supporting on-device generative AI functions. Musk stated that the next generation Tesla Roadster will be equipped with rocket technology, surpassing the concept of cars. Apple is negotiating to implant Google's Gemini AI engine into the iPhone. The Bank of Japan will end Yield Curve Control (YCC) and ETF purchases. Falsely inflated revenue by 564 billion in 2 years! Evergrande Real Estate was fined 4.175 billion, with Xu Jiayin fined 47 million

Breakfast | NVIDIA launches the most powerful AI chip GB200, institutional investors sell off shares of seven tech giants

NVIDIA stated that Blackwell has improved its cost and energy consumption by 25 times compared to the previous generation, making it the most powerful chip in the world. It consists of 208 billion transistors and is manufactured using TSMC's 4nm process, supporting AI training with up to 10 trillion parameters and real-time Large Language Models (LLM) inference. The inference performance of GB200 NVL72 is up to 30 times higher than H100. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle are among the first cloud service providers to support Blackwell. NVIDIA has launched the AI project Project GR00T to empower humanoid robots. TSMC and Synopsys will adopt NVIDIA's computational lithography technology. NVIDIA has introduced the new software NIM to make it easier for users to utilize existing NVIDIA GPUs for AI inference

NVIDIA AI Summit GTC unveiled, the most powerful AI chip Blackwell is here!

摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官 Lisa Shalett 警告称，美元机制转变可能对美国股市造成风险。她指出，与亚洲的关系恶化、日本收益率曲线管理的结束以及比特币和大宗商品价格上涨等因素表明，美元可能已达到极限。她鼓励投资者将目光投向海外，寻求未来的股票回报以对冲可能的回调。此外，她还提到，市盈率扩大是美国股市上涨的主要原因之一。

大摩警告美股投资者 市场面临 “美元机制转变” 风险

华尔街预计，小鹏汽车全年净亏损将达到人民币 117.1 亿元，相较于 2022 年的预计亏损人民币 91.4 亿元有显著扩大。更令人担忧的是，尽管去年第四季度交付了 60,158 辆汽车，但这似乎并未能为小鹏带来实质性的财务改善。

前瞻 | 小鹏财报看什么：亏损还会继续扩大吗？

周一，两年期美债收益率升至三个月新高，10 年期美债收益率也走高。掉期交易员们预计 6 月不降息概率更大，今年降息次数或不到三次。高盛不到一个月再次下调美联储年内降息次数预期，从四次减少到三次。当前，只要有两位美联储官员将今年的降息次数从三次改为两次，点阵图的中值预测就会改变。

美联储会议前夕，掉期交易预计 6 月不降息概率更大，高盛再砍年内降息次数预期

Tellurian(TELL) fell 23.61%, with a trading turnover 51.7 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 3%. GigaCloud Tech(GCT) fell 20.72%, with a trading turnover 297.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 87%. Microstrategy(MSTR) fell 15.69%, with a trading turnover 7.1 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 137.9%.

Top 10 US Stock Losers (3.18)

Quantasing(QSG) rose 12.96%, with a trading turnover 1.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 117.9%. Kingsoft Cloud(KC) rose 9.77%, with a trading turnover 6.0 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 10.8%. Jin Medical(ZJYL) fell 28.54%, with a trading turnover 3.2 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 74.8%. GigaCloud Tech(GCT) fell 20.72%, with a trading turnover 297.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 87%.

Top 5 CDRs Gainers/Losers (>100M) (3.18)

FOMC 决策周，市场急速下调对 6 月美联储降息押注，标普纳指盘初涨超 1%，特斯拉收涨超 6% 领跑大型科技股，英伟达高开 5% 后收涨 0.7%，带动芯片股午后涨幅收窄。中概股指高开低走，理想汽车跌超 12%，亿航智能涨 30% 后一度转跌。美债收益率重返 2 月份所创的年内高位，油价涨约 2% 至近五个月新高。美元上涨徘徊两周高位，日元一度止跌转涨，比特币失守 6.7 万美元。黄金触及一周多新低反弹，伦铜一度涨穿 9160 美元创 11 个月新高。

AI 盛会令科技股狂飙，美股脱离两周低位，特斯拉涨超 6%，但英伟达一度转跌

Morgan Stanley believes that thanks to the strong research and development capabilities, profitability, and cash burning capabilities of the "weight loss duo" Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk AS, their moats are wide, and the probability of continued profitability is very high. In addition, Eli Lilly's new oral drug orforglipron will change the landscape of the weight loss and diabetes drug market

JPMorgan Chase: Eli Lilly management believes that oral medications will change the landscape, and the moats of "weight loss giants" are underestimated by the market

Japanese media reported that the Bank of Japan will continue to stay in the market to avoid volatility, including continuing to purchase some Japanese government bonds to prevent bond yields from soaring, but the Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework will be abandoned. In terms of risk assets, the Bank of Japan will also end its purchases of Japanese stock ETFs and real estate investment trusts. The USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to decline in the short term

Report: Bank of Japan expected to end YCC and ETF purchases on March 19th

The recent rally in the S&P 500 has not reached the levels of the 2000 tech bubble or post-pandemic highs. Market-implied long-term growth expectations for S&P 500 stocks have also not matched previous levels. Valuations of top technology stocks are elevated but still lower than during the tech bubble and post-pandemic highs. Goldman Sachs identifies four phases of the current AI trade, with different companies benefiting at each stage. Investors are expected to trade Phase 2 and Phase 3 faster than Phase 4.

LIVE MARKETS-Recent rally in S&P 500 not yet as high as 2000 tech bubble, post-pandemic highs

美股在 GTC 会议和美联储货币政策决策周的刺激下迎来上涨。谷歌股价大涨 6%，创去年 12 月以来最佳表现，苹果、特斯拉和英伟达也均有涨幅。科技板块表现强劲，电信板块领涨。中概股中，小鹏汽车、蔚来、拼多多和 B 站等股票上涨。亿航智能股价大涨近 30%。美股行业 ETF 全线走高，半导体和科技行业 ETF 表现尤为突出。美国 3 月房产市场指数创新高。苹果和谷歌商谈合作。整体上市场情绪较好。

GTC 大会前 AI 股狂飙！标普纳指跳涨超 1%，谷歌涨 6%，英伟达涨 4%

Flood 认为，这表明市场广度正在改善，预计标普 500 将在第二季度突破 5500 点并继续走高。

高盛交易员：美股机构投资者还在继续抛售 Mag7，并买入周期股

It is expected that AI will reach a tipping point for comprehensive popularization and volume expansion

NVIDIA GTC Preview: B100 Heavyweight Release, AI Empowering Various Industries

As of before the Nasdaq Exchange malfunction, the market showed: Google rose more than 4%, Tesla and Nvidia rose more than 2%; XPeng led the way with a rise of more than 6%, Nio rose more than 4%, Li Auto fell more than 5%. "The first stock of flying cars" EHang Intelligent rose more than 12%

Pre-market trading in US stocks: Nasdaq Exchange experiencing technical difficulties! Tech stocks and Chinese concept stocks are rising, while cryptocurrency-related stocks are falling

Over 20 years, he turned the initial 5000 rupees (about 100 US dollars) into 5.8 billion US dollars, while the Indian SENSEX index also broke through the 70,000 point mark from the initial 150 points

From 1 billion to 58 billion! What's the secret of the Indian Buffett?

北水成交净买入 29.31 亿港元，其中港股通 (沪) 成交净买入 13.78 亿港元，港股通 (深) 成交净买入 15.53 亿港元。北水净买入小米集团-W、快手-W、中国移动。北水净卖出理想汽车-W、中国神华、中芯国际。快手公布 2023 年第四季业绩预期，华安证券乐观，民生证券指出电商业务增速迅猛。中国移动将公布 2023 年全年业绩，里昂预期纯利升 5.6%，摩根士丹利关注管理层计划和股东回报。中海油受到油价下跌影响，但仍保持韧性。

北水动向 | 北水成交净买入 29.31 亿 MEGA 订单量逊预期 内资抛售理想汽车近 3 亿港元

杭州发布房产新政，其中最受关注的是全面放开二手房限购，不再审核购房资格；个人出售住房的增值税征免年限统一调整为 2 年。据了解，刚刚过去的新政后首个周末，杭州二手房中介迎来一波带看、咨询高峰，外地客户占很大比例。有中介表示，“周末忙晕了，我们小组一天有 3 笔成交，其中 2 笔都是外地客户当天看房、当天签约；小组带看量达到二三十组客户，比平时翻了几倍。”

杭州房产新政后首个周末：带看量翻数倍 有外地客户当天下单

Before the financial report was released, Citigroup significantly raised Micron Technology's target price from $95 to $150

WSB Discussion | Is Micron Technology the next hot semiconductor stock?

Bank of America raised its target price for Taiwan Semiconductor's US stocks to $155, expecting Taiwan Semiconductor's foundry revenue below the industry-leading 7nm process to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 22% from 2023 to 2025; Morgan Stanley raised Coinbase's target price from $95 to $150

Rating Quick Look | Taiwan Semiconductor and Coinbase's target prices significantly raised! Weibo faces "price cuts"

美银表示，系统性基金逐步削减美国股票多头头寸。标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数的上涨速度放缓，可能导致 CTA 开始平仓。上周 SPX 和 NDX 多头仓位小幅下降，本周可能出现类似逐步平仓。尽管标普 500 指数上周创下历史新高，但标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数均录得去年 10 月以来的首次两周连跌。CTA 仍看多欧洲斯托克 50 指数和日经 225 指数。

美银：系统性基金逐步削减美国股票多头头寸

消息人士：福特汽车据称正在开发一款售价为 2.5 万美元的紧凑型电动车，预计将于 2026 年底首次亮相。福特汽车新的电动车平台将采用更便宜的锂铁磷酸电池。福特汽车紧凑型车型是三款新的低成本电动车之一。

高盛指出，人形机器人到 2035 年呈爆发式增长，出货量将达到 140 万台，市场规模达 380 亿美元。

高盛看人形机器人：AI 超预期、一年降本 40%、未来需求看制造业工人和老年人护理

摩根士丹利策略师表示，最近美债收益率上涨已使其接近关键水平，将考验美股是否会再度对利率变得更加敏感。Michael Wilson 带领的团队将 4.35% 视为 10 年期美债收益率的重要技术位，需关注股市对利率敏感性上升的迹象”。

摩根士丹利策略师：美债利率逼近重要技术位 将对美股构成考验

UBTECH ROBOTICS(09880) rose 15.77%, with a trading turnover 284.7 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 182.9%. JD HEALTH(06618) rose 6.62%, with a trading turnover 297.8 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 15.6%. LI AUTO(02015) fell 5.63%, with a trading turnover 2.1 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date fell 5.5%. FUYAO GLASS(03606) fell 5.56%, with a trading turnover 277.2 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 2.9%.

Top 5 HK Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (3.18)

ZX INC(09890) fell 10.99%, with a trading turnover 95.9 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 46%. GOLDENSOLAR(01121) fell 8.64%, with a trading turnover 3.3 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 62.5%. HONGJIU FRUIT(06689) fell 8.51%, with a trading turnover 134.1 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 42.7%.

Top 10 HK Stock Losers (3.18)

DONGFENG GROUP(00489) rose 17.3%, with a trading turnover 322.1 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 4.1%. UBTECH ROBOTICS(09880) rose 15.77%, with a trading turnover 284.7 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 182.9%. MEITU(01357) rose 14.6%, with a trading turnover 835.5 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 0.3%.

Top 10 HK Stock Gainers (3.18)

3 月 18 日，盒马相关人士向记者确认，盒马 CEO 侯毅因年满 60 岁正式退休，未来将担任盒马首席荣誉顾问。据了解，这项任命是以盒马全员信的方式宣布的，现任 CFO 的严筱磊将兼任 CEO。在信中，阿里集团对侯毅为盒马起步和发展作出的贡献给予高度评价。

盒马 CEO 侯毅正式退休

In the past five years, Pinduoduo's stock price has dropped by at least 6% after releasing its Q4 financial report, and even dropped by over 14% last year! This Wednesday, on March 20th, Pinduoduo will release its annual report. Will it be different this time?

Does Pinduoduo always experience a significant drop after its Q4 financial report?

英伟达连续第 10 周上涨 0.4%，创下历史纪录，市值达 2.2 万亿美元，成为第三大上市公司。这一行情使投资者对人工智能芯片热情高涨，推高了英伟达股价。周一将举行年度 GTC 大会，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋将发表讲话。

行情持续之久前所未见 英伟达连续第 10 周上涨

高盛发布报告指出，美股对人工智能（AI）持乐观态度，但认为尚未出现科技泡沫。报告还提到，长期增长估算升至 11%，略高于平均水平的 9%，但仍低于科技泡沫时期的 16% 及 2021 年后期的 13%。在十只 TMT 股票中，每股盈利增长预测中值为 15%，预计市盈率为 28 倍。投资者关注除英伟达外的其他有潜力受益 AI 的股份，认为 AI 趋势将涉及半导体、云服务供应、器材、数据中心 REITs 等。

高盛：美股对 AI 乐观情绪高涨 但认为尚未出现科技泡沫

美团-W 将在本周五公布去年第四季业绩。预测显示，美团 2023 年第四季经调整溢利将增加 2.5 倍至 3.71 倍，中位数为 29.54 亿元人民币。同时，预计其溢利将介于 4,400 万至 16.2 亿元人民币之间，中位数为 10.47 亿元人民币。此外，预测显示美团 2023 年第四季收入将增加 20.1% 至 24.6%，中位数为 725.46 亿元人民币。投资者将关注美团的管理层指引，包括外卖业务利润率、骑手补贴成本、到店业务竞争以及社区团购业务的未来营运策略等。

《季绩前瞻》券商料美团上季经调整溢利升逾 2.5 倍 聚焦营运指引及社区团购策略

The hottest contracts last Friday: Over 140,000 contracts were traded for Tesla with a same-day expiry and a strike price of $162.5! Nearly 80,000 contracts were traded for Tesla with a March 22 expiry and a strike price of $170. Nearly 70,000 contracts were traded for NVIDIA with a strike price of $880, while nearly 60,000 call contracts at the same price were traded

US Stock Options | Tesla's trading volume fell sharply to 2.45 million contracts! NVIDIA "counter-trend rise" continues to be hot

阿里巴巴电商在面临新生平台的竞争下逐渐失去光环，但今年以来情况有所改变。阿里巴巴通过调整策略，提升服务水平，加大人工智能应用，并重点发展直播带货和货架商城，力图收复流量失地。阿里巴巴集团董事会主席蔡崇信表示，经过一段时间的压力，阿里已重返中国顶级电商企业轨道。阿里巴巴正在努力回归，并加强对年轻人的吸引力。

阿里电商杀了个 “回马枪”

分析预计，本周美联储 “按兵不动” 几成定局，鲍威尔将一如既往地 “谨慎发言”，不会释放任何有关即将降息的暗号，衍生品市场预计 6 月降息的概率仅为 44%。

本周 FOMC 焦点：6 月会不会降息？今年还能降息三次么？

拼多多（PDD）今年股价跌超 20%，但杰富瑞分析师认为，现在可能是购买该股的好时机。预计 2023 年，拼多多股价有望上涨 79%，表现优于阿里（BABA）、京东（JD）等竞争对手。拼多多受到越来越多价格敏感的消费者青睐，为其海外市场进军奠定了基础。杰富瑞将拼多多股票评级从 “中性” 上调至 “买入”，目标价 157 美元。拼多多的主要竞争优势在于其专注于 DTC 模式，即直接将客户与制造商联系起来。预计拼多多 2023 年四季度仍将实现强劲增长，收入环比增长 16%，同比增长一倍以上。

今年跌超 20% 的拼多多，股价有望反弹 78%？

芯片独角兽公司 Astera Labs 计划在纳斯达克上市，筹资达 5.34 亿美元，市值有望超过 45 亿美元。其核心产品是数据和内存连接半导体，受益于大模型的发展，其发展迅猛。在 2022 年的 D 轮融资中，其估值已超过 32 亿美元。