摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官 Lisa Shalett 警告称，美元机制转变可能对美国股市造成风险。她指出，与亚洲的关系恶化、日本收益率曲线管理的结束以及比特币和大宗商品价格上涨等因素表明，美元可能已达到极限。她鼓励投资者将目光投向海外，寻求未来的股票回报以对冲可能的回调。此外，她还提到，市盈率扩大是美国股市上涨的主要原因之一。

大摩警告美股投资者 市场面临 “美元机制转变” 风险

华尔街预计，小鹏汽车全年净亏损将达到人民币 117.1 亿元，相较于 2022 年的预计亏损人民币 91.4 亿元有显著扩大。更令人担忧的是，尽管去年第四季度交付了 60,158 辆汽车，但这似乎并未能为小鹏带来实质性的财务改善。

前瞻 | 小鹏财报看什么：亏损还会继续扩大吗？

周一，两年期美债收益率升至三个月新高，10 年期美债收益率也走高。掉期交易员们预计 6 月不降息概率更大，今年降息次数或不到三次。高盛不到一个月再次下调美联储年内降息次数预期，从四次减少到三次。当前，只要有两位美联储官员将今年的降息次数从三次改为两次，点阵图的中值预测就会改变。

美联储会议前夕，掉期交易预计 6 月不降息概率更大，高盛再砍年内降息次数预期

Tellurian(TELL) fell 23.61%, with a trading turnover 51.7 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 3%. GigaCloud Tech(GCT) fell 20.72%, with a trading turnover 297.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 87%. Microstrategy(MSTR) fell 15.69%, with a trading turnover 7.1 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 137.9%.

Top 10 US Stock Losers (3.18)

Quantasing(QSG) rose 12.96%, with a trading turnover 1.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 117.9%. Kingsoft Cloud(KC) rose 9.77%, with a trading turnover 6.0 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 10.8%. Jin Medical(ZJYL) fell 28.54%, with a trading turnover 3.2 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 74.8%. GigaCloud Tech(GCT) fell 20.72%, with a trading turnover 297.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 87%.

Top 5 CDRs Gainers/Losers (>100M) (3.18)

FOMC 决策周，市场急速下调对 6 月美联储降息押注，标普纳指盘初涨超 1%，特斯拉收涨超 6% 领跑大型科技股，英伟达高开 5% 后收涨 0.7%，带动芯片股午后涨幅收窄。中概股指高开低走，理想汽车跌超 12%，亿航智能涨 30% 后一度转跌。美债收益率重返 2 月份所创的年内高位，油价涨约 2% 至近五个月新高。美元上涨徘徊两周高位，日元一度止跌转涨，比特币失守 6.7 万美元。黄金触及一周多新低反弹，伦铜一度涨穿 9160 美元创 11 个月新高。

AI 盛会令科技股狂飙，美股脱离两周低位，特斯拉涨超 6%，但英伟达一度转跌

Morgan Stanley believes that thanks to the strong research and development capabilities, profitability, and cash burning capabilities of the "weight loss duo" Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk AS, their moats are wide, and the probability of continued profitability is very high. In addition, Eli Lilly's new oral drug orforglipron will change the landscape of the weight loss and diabetes drug market

JPMorgan Chase: Eli Lilly management believes that oral medications will change the landscape, and the moats of "weight loss giants" are underestimated by the market

Japanese media reported that the Bank of Japan will continue to stay in the market to avoid volatility, including continuing to purchase some Japanese government bonds to prevent bond yields from soaring, but the Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework will be abandoned. In terms of risk assets, the Bank of Japan will also end its purchases of Japanese stock ETFs and real estate investment trusts. The USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to decline in the short term

Report: Bank of Japan expected to end YCC and ETF purchases on March 19th

The recent rally in the S&P 500 has not reached the levels of the 2000 tech bubble or post-pandemic highs. Market-implied long-term growth expectations for S&P 500 stocks have also not matched previous levels. Valuations of top technology stocks are elevated but still lower than during the tech bubble and post-pandemic highs. Goldman Sachs identifies four phases of the current AI trade, with different companies benefiting at each stage. Investors are expected to trade Phase 2 and Phase 3 faster than Phase 4.

LIVE MARKETS-Recent rally in S&P 500 not yet as high as 2000 tech bubble, post-pandemic highs

美股在 GTC 会议和美联储货币政策决策周的刺激下迎来上涨。谷歌股价大涨 6%，创去年 12 月以来最佳表现，苹果、特斯拉和英伟达也均有涨幅。科技板块表现强劲，电信板块领涨。中概股中，小鹏汽车、蔚来、拼多多和 B 站等股票上涨。亿航智能股价大涨近 30%。美股行业 ETF 全线走高，半导体和科技行业 ETF 表现尤为突出。美国 3 月房产市场指数创新高。苹果和谷歌商谈合作。整体上市场情绪较好。

GTC 大会前 AI 股狂飙！标普纳指跳涨超 1%，谷歌涨 6%，英伟达涨 4%

Flood 认为，这表明市场广度正在改善，预计标普 500 将在第二季度突破 5500 点并继续走高。

高盛交易员：美股机构投资者还在继续抛售 Mag7，并买入周期股

It is expected that AI will reach a tipping point for comprehensive popularization and volume expansion

NVIDIA GTC Preview: B100 Heavyweight Release, AI Empowering Various Industries

As of before the Nasdaq Exchange malfunction, the market showed: Google rose more than 4%, Tesla and Nvidia rose more than 2%; XPeng led the way with a rise of more than 6%, Nio rose more than 4%, Li Auto fell more than 5%. "The first stock of flying cars" EHang Intelligent rose more than 12%

Pre-market trading in US stocks: Nasdaq Exchange experiencing technical difficulties! Tech stocks and Chinese concept stocks are rising, while cryptocurrency-related stocks are falling

Over 20 years, he turned the initial 5000 rupees (about 100 US dollars) into 5.8 billion US dollars, while the Indian SENSEX index also broke through the 70,000 point mark from the initial 150 points

From 1 billion to 58 billion! What's the secret of the Indian Buffett?

北水成交净买入 29.31 亿港元，其中港股通 (沪) 成交净买入 13.78 亿港元，港股通 (深) 成交净买入 15.53 亿港元。北水净买入小米集团-W、快手-W、中国移动。北水净卖出理想汽车-W、中国神华、中芯国际。快手公布 2023 年第四季业绩预期，华安证券乐观，民生证券指出电商业务增速迅猛。中国移动将公布 2023 年全年业绩，里昂预期纯利升 5.6%，摩根士丹利关注管理层计划和股东回报。中海油受到油价下跌影响，但仍保持韧性。

北水动向 | 北水成交净买入 29.31 亿 MEGA 订单量逊预期 内资抛售理想汽车近 3 亿港元

杭州发布房产新政，其中最受关注的是全面放开二手房限购，不再审核购房资格；个人出售住房的增值税征免年限统一调整为 2 年。据了解，刚刚过去的新政后首个周末，杭州二手房中介迎来一波带看、咨询高峰，外地客户占很大比例。有中介表示，“周末忙晕了，我们小组一天有 3 笔成交，其中 2 笔都是外地客户当天看房、当天签约；小组带看量达到二三十组客户，比平时翻了几倍。”

杭州房产新政后首个周末：带看量翻数倍 有外地客户当天下单

Before the financial report was released, Citigroup significantly raised Micron Technology's target price from $95 to $150

WSB Discussion | Is Micron Technology the next hot semiconductor stock?

Bank of America raised its target price for Taiwan Semiconductor's US stocks to $155, expecting Taiwan Semiconductor's foundry revenue below the industry-leading 7nm process to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 22% from 2023 to 2025; Morgan Stanley raised Coinbase's target price from $95 to $150

Rating Quick Look | Taiwan Semiconductor and Coinbase's target prices significantly raised! Weibo faces "price cuts"

美银表示，系统性基金逐步削减美国股票多头头寸。标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数的上涨速度放缓，可能导致 CTA 开始平仓。上周 SPX 和 NDX 多头仓位小幅下降，本周可能出现类似逐步平仓。尽管标普 500 指数上周创下历史新高，但标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数均录得去年 10 月以来的首次两周连跌。CTA 仍看多欧洲斯托克 50 指数和日经 225 指数。

美银：系统性基金逐步削减美国股票多头头寸

消息人士：福特汽车据称正在开发一款售价为 2.5 万美元的紧凑型电动车，预计将于 2026 年底首次亮相。福特汽车新的电动车平台将采用更便宜的锂铁磷酸电池。福特汽车紧凑型车型是三款新的低成本电动车之一。

高盛指出，人形机器人到 2035 年呈爆发式增长，出货量将达到 140 万台，市场规模达 380 亿美元。

高盛看人形机器人：AI 超预期、一年降本 40%、未来需求看制造业工人和老年人护理

摩根士丹利策略师表示，最近美债收益率上涨已使其接近关键水平，将考验美股是否会再度对利率变得更加敏感。Michael Wilson 带领的团队将 4.35% 视为 10 年期美债收益率的重要技术位，需关注股市对利率敏感性上升的迹象”。

摩根士丹利策略师：美债利率逼近重要技术位 将对美股构成考验

UBTECH ROBOTICS(09880) rose 15.77%, with a trading turnover 284.7 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 182.9%. JD HEALTH(06618) rose 6.62%, with a trading turnover 297.8 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 15.6%. LI AUTO(02015) fell 5.63%, with a trading turnover 2.1 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date fell 5.5%. FUYAO GLASS(03606) fell 5.56%, with a trading turnover 277.2 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 2.9%.

Top 5 HK Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (3.18)

ZX INC(09890) fell 10.99%, with a trading turnover 95.9 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 46%. GOLDENSOLAR(01121) fell 8.64%, with a trading turnover 3.3 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 62.5%. HONGJIU FRUIT(06689) fell 8.51%, with a trading turnover 134.1 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 42.7%.

Top 10 HK Stock Losers (3.18)

DONGFENG GROUP(00489) rose 17.3%, with a trading turnover 322.1 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 4.1%. UBTECH ROBOTICS(09880) rose 15.77%, with a trading turnover 284.7 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 182.9%. MEITU(01357) rose 14.6%, with a trading turnover 835.5 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 0.3%.

Top 10 HK Stock Gainers (3.18)

3 月 18 日，盒马相关人士向记者确认，盒马 CEO 侯毅因年满 60 岁正式退休，未来将担任盒马首席荣誉顾问。据了解，这项任命是以盒马全员信的方式宣布的，现任 CFO 的严筱磊将兼任 CEO。在信中，阿里集团对侯毅为盒马起步和发展作出的贡献给予高度评价。

盒马 CEO 侯毅正式退休

In the past five years, Pinduoduo's stock price has dropped by at least 6% after releasing its Q4 financial report, and even dropped by over 14% last year! This Wednesday, on March 20th, Pinduoduo will release its annual report. Will it be different this time?

Does Pinduoduo always experience a significant drop after its Q4 financial report?

英伟达连续第 10 周上涨 0.4%，创下历史纪录，市值达 2.2 万亿美元，成为第三大上市公司。这一行情使投资者对人工智能芯片热情高涨，推高了英伟达股价。周一将举行年度 GTC 大会，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋将发表讲话。

行情持续之久前所未见 英伟达连续第 10 周上涨

高盛发布报告指出，美股对人工智能（AI）持乐观态度，但认为尚未出现科技泡沫。报告还提到，长期增长估算升至 11%，略高于平均水平的 9%，但仍低于科技泡沫时期的 16% 及 2021 年后期的 13%。在十只 TMT 股票中，每股盈利增长预测中值为 15%，预计市盈率为 28 倍。投资者关注除英伟达外的其他有潜力受益 AI 的股份，认为 AI 趋势将涉及半导体、云服务供应、器材、数据中心 REITs 等。

高盛：美股对 AI 乐观情绪高涨 但认为尚未出现科技泡沫

美团-W 将在本周五公布去年第四季业绩。预测显示，美团 2023 年第四季经调整溢利将增加 2.5 倍至 3.71 倍，中位数为 29.54 亿元人民币。同时，预计其溢利将介于 4,400 万至 16.2 亿元人民币之间，中位数为 10.47 亿元人民币。此外，预测显示美团 2023 年第四季收入将增加 20.1% 至 24.6%，中位数为 725.46 亿元人民币。投资者将关注美团的管理层指引，包括外卖业务利润率、骑手补贴成本、到店业务竞争以及社区团购业务的未来营运策略等。

《季绩前瞻》券商料美团上季经调整溢利升逾 2.5 倍 聚焦营运指引及社区团购策略

The hottest contracts last Friday: Over 140,000 contracts were traded for Tesla with a same-day expiry and a strike price of $162.5! Nearly 80,000 contracts were traded for Tesla with a March 22 expiry and a strike price of $170. Nearly 70,000 contracts were traded for NVIDIA with a strike price of $880, while nearly 60,000 call contracts at the same price were traded

US Stock Options | Tesla's trading volume fell sharply to 2.45 million contracts! NVIDIA "counter-trend rise" continues to be hot

阿里巴巴电商在面临新生平台的竞争下逐渐失去光环，但今年以来情况有所改变。阿里巴巴通过调整策略，提升服务水平，加大人工智能应用，并重点发展直播带货和货架商城，力图收复流量失地。阿里巴巴集团董事会主席蔡崇信表示，经过一段时间的压力，阿里已重返中国顶级电商企业轨道。阿里巴巴正在努力回归，并加强对年轻人的吸引力。

阿里电商杀了个 “回马枪”

分析预计，本周美联储 “按兵不动” 几成定局，鲍威尔将一如既往地 “谨慎发言”，不会释放任何有关即将降息的暗号，衍生品市场预计 6 月降息的概率仅为 44%。

本周 FOMC 焦点：6 月会不会降息？今年还能降息三次么？

拼多多（PDD）今年股价跌超 20%，但杰富瑞分析师认为，现在可能是购买该股的好时机。预计 2023 年，拼多多股价有望上涨 79%，表现优于阿里（BABA）、京东（JD）等竞争对手。拼多多受到越来越多价格敏感的消费者青睐，为其海外市场进军奠定了基础。杰富瑞将拼多多股票评级从 “中性” 上调至 “买入”，目标价 157 美元。拼多多的主要竞争优势在于其专注于 DTC 模式，即直接将客户与制造商联系起来。预计拼多多 2023 年四季度仍将实现强劲增长，收入环比增长 16%，同比增长一倍以上。

今年跌超 20% 的拼多多，股价有望反弹 78%？

芯片独角兽公司 Astera Labs 计划在纳斯达克上市，筹资达 5.34 亿美元，市值有望超过 45 亿美元。其核心产品是数据和内存连接半导体，受益于大模型的发展，其发展迅猛。在 2022 年的 D 轮融资中，其估值已超过 32 亿美元。

风口上的 “小英伟达”?300 亿芯片独角兽 Astera Labs IPO，投资人赚了 150 倍

Citigroup, a major Wall Street firm, has raised Micron Tech's rating from "buy" to a target price of $150, expecting its latest performance to drive the stock price higher. Analysts generally believe that the revenue growth of Micron Tech's DRAM memory chips and HBM memory systems will help the company significantly reduce its losses. In addition, Micron Tech will also disclose details of the new AI hardware system bound with NVIDIA's HBM memory through cooperation. According to Wall Street analysts' forecasts, Micron Tech's revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 is expected to reach $5.33 billion, with a significant narrowing of net losses. Citigroup analyst Christopher Danely expects Micron Tech to have a potential upside of up to 60% in the next 12 months

Financial Report Preview | HBM's fundraising ability is at its peak! Will the latest performance boost Micron Tech's stock price?

Apple's stock price is stagnant due to concerns about growth and weak upgrade rates. KeyBanc maintains a lower hardware revenue forecast for Apple, citing Chinese competition and uncertainty surrounding App Store regulations. Despite a 6% month-over-month increase in hardware spending, year-to-date spending is down 20% compared to last year. Analysts expect a decline in second-quarter hardware sales, but the drop may be lower than estimated. Overall, the analyst sees limited movement in Apple's stock price and low conviction in a growth inflection.

Apple Stock Stuck In Neutral? Analyst Says Sales Inch Up, But Growth Concerns Linger

Apple has recently been in discussions with OpenAI, considering using its models

Report: Apple is in talks with Alphabet-C to embed Alphabet-C Gemini into the "AI version of iPhone"

2024 Financial Report | Holding ample cash but still "stuck" in dividend distribution, BAIYUNSHAN PH suspected of being voted out by the market

Hong Kong-listed leading technology stocks all rose during the week: JD surged 13%, XIAOMI-W rose 11%, and KUAISHOU-W rose 8.5%. Most of the seven giants in the US stock market rose during the week, with Google leading the way with a rise of over 4%, Meta falling over 4%, and Tesla plummeting nearly 7%

Weekly Tech Stock Roundup: Tesla continues to plummet, JD and Xiaomi-W lead the way with significant gains!

流量依然是美团的生命线，规模依然是美团的护城河。如果抖音和饿了么携手，并且抖音的流量与饿了么的规模实现了结合的话，美团的巨大优势，必然会荡然无存。

抖音、美团，必有一战

Some investors attribute the rebound in pro-cyclical sectors and leading core assets to re-inflation trades, but CICC believes it is somewhat forced. From a fundamental perspective, the short-term rebound in Hong Kong stocks is more due to short covering and inflows from some foreign capital for short-term speculative rebounds

Market Insight | How to view the rebound of Hong Kong stocks last week?

英伟达将举办 GTC 开发者大会，展示了其在软件生态系统方面的优势。GTC 是为开发者举办的展会，Nvidia 围绕 CUDA 及其软件堆栈构建了软件生态系统。合作伙伴对英伟达至关重要，数百家公司和数百万开发人员在其产品上构建工具，难以在短期内转移到其他公司的芯片上运行。英伟达的软件护城河取决于软件生态系统的固有惯性，公司的投资和合作关系表明其具有巨大的竞争优势。

英伟达 CUDA 护城河，到底有多深？

Nowadays, in the US stock market, only three electric vehicle manufacturers can sustain profitability, namely Tesla, BYD, and LI AUTO. The total value of these three companies is approximately $650 billion, which is far below the peak of $1.4 trillion.

Electric vehicle stocks, just a dream?

美银证券将台积电美股目标价上调至 155 美元，预计结构性先进节点的需求将更强劲，同时认为台积电的行业龙头地位将受益于英特尔将 CPU 模块外包予台积电的消息。美银还预测，台积电的代工收入在 2023 年至 2025 年的年均复合增长率将达 22%。

美银：上调台积电美股目标价至 155 美元 料结构性先进节点的需求将更强劲

高盛预计日本央行将在周二取消负利率，同时退出对日本国债收益率曲线的控制政策。此前，日本公布的薪资增长数据和日本央行官员透露的消息暗示日本央行可能会加息。日本最大规模工会组织宣布了强于预期的年度薪资协议，进一步刺激了市场对日本央行行动的猜测情绪。这将是自 2007 年以来的首次加息，也意味着日本成为全球最后一个结束负利率的国家。

重磅展望出炉！ “华尔街预期风向标” 高盛押注日本央行周二取消负利率

After a five-year hiatus, GTC is returning to offline events. Will Huang Renxun bring out some real heavyweights this time?

AI Summit! NVIDIA GTC Conference: Great Expectations, Can B100 Handle the Scene?

国家统计局：1—2 月份，社会消费品零售总额 81307 亿元，同比增长 5.5%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 74194 亿元，增长 5.2%。

中国 1-2 月今年迄今城镇固定资产投资年率 4.2%，预期 3.20%，前值 3%。

中国 2 月城镇调查失业率 5.3%，预期 5.10%，前值 5.1%。