* 高盛引述小鹏-W 管理层指目前扩大销量至关重要 对本季毛利率看法正面

12 月 18 日，一米八农业科技公司正式成立，由蚂蚁集团前 CEO、前阿里合伙人胡晓明担任董事长兼首席品控官。胡晓明在朋友圈发文称，“我们第一个专注海洋优质蛋白的公司–一米八海洋科技也正式成立，并发布两款优质产品: 舟山峡泗列岛贻贝和温州南鹿岛大黄鱼。目前在盒马渠道有售，接下来还会尽快在天猫等更多线上和线下渠道出售。

马云开卖贻贝和大黄鱼

Federal Reserve officials' remarks have cooled down market speculation about an imminent interest rate cut. On December 18th, the Hong Kong dollar's short-term interest rates rebounded, with the two-week interbank rate rising by 77 basis points to 5.35952%, surpassing the 5% mark. The one-month interbank rate, which is related to property mortgages, also ended its six-week decline and rose from a three-week low to 5.46054%, reaching a new high in over a week. The overnight rate has risen for two consecutive days and is currently at 4.23119%, the highest since December 8th. The three-month interbank rate, which reflects the cost of bank funds, ended its six-week decline and rebounded to 5.34095%. However, the long-term rates continued to decline, with the six-month and one-year rates both falling to 5.28399%. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Williams, stated that the Fed is not currently discussing an interest rate cut and if necessary, the authorities must be prepared to raise rates again. His remarks have tempered market expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Fed, resulting in a rebound in the US dollar exchange rate.

Hong Kong dollar short-term interest rates rebounded, with two-week interbank rates rising sharply by 77 basis points to reach 5%.

东方甄选涨幅扩大至 20%，此前董宇辉升为东方甄选高级合伙人。

在昨天（12 月 17 日）最新一场直播里，东方甄选的预估 GMV 达到 1 亿以上，观看人次接近 7000 万，是之前平均水平的七倍。 根据飞瓜数据·抖音版整理了近 30 天东方甄选的带货情况，发现东方甄选的单场直播通常是 14-16 个小时，场均预估 GMV 在 1000 万-2500 万之间，场均观看人次在 1000 万左右。在 “小作文” 事件发酵后，东方甄选直播间的人气和销售额的确有过短期的下降，但很快又回到了平均值水平以上。

东方甄选昨日 GMV 预估 1 亿以上，观看人次接近 7000 万

中国电池生产商瑞浦兰钧今日在香港挂牌上市，股价一度涨超 7%，市值达 447.65 亿港元。此次 IPO 募集资金约 21 亿港元，是香港今年第四大 IPO。

中金认为，基本面并不支持过早降息，但在降息初期，资产可以这么看：先股后债，新兴修复！其中，美股修复程度取决于增长压力，新兴修复程度更高。

解读美联储：未来如何降息？

近期，随着新能源汽车 800V 高压快充车型的密集发布，头部新能源车企如极氪、华为、理想汽车、小鹏汽车等在大功率超充桩的建设方面陆续提出明确的规划目标，为充电桩后续建设持续贡献新动能，同时引领充电桩设备朝着高功率、液冷散热等技术方向升级，超充桩产业链上下游公司有望受益。

中信证券：车企下场加速布局 超充桩产业链有望受益

全球通胀下行速度超预期，对欧美央行和市场有重要影响。华泰证券发布的研究报告指出，海外主要经济体通胀走势大多低于市场预期，全球通胀可能继续超预期下行。这将导致欧美央行采取更宽松的货币政策，并可能引发 “衰退焦虑”。制造业 “去通胀” 推动全球核心商品通胀回落，服务业通胀也有望继续下降。全球房价已见顶，房租通胀有望正常化。此外，欧美薪资增长可能回落。总体而言，全球通胀下行速度超预期的宏观含义值得关注。

华泰证券：全球通胀下行速度超预期的宏观含义

恒指开盘跌 0.73%，恒生科技指数跌 0.85%。商汤跌超 14%，小鹏汽车跌超 5%，哔哩哔哩跌超 2%，阿里健康、网易跌近 2%。

With market expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to shift to a loose monetary policy, investors generally believe that bonds with shorter maturities and yields above 4% are the best investment option at the moment. The consensus on Wall Street is now very clear: two-year US Treasury bonds are the best investment on the yield curve, with a yield of around 4.4%, which is attractive and higher than any other maturity of government bonds. Investors lack interest in long-term securities because they expect the yield curve to steepen and return to a more typical upward trend.

After the major shift by the Federal Reserve, increasing holdings of short-term US bonds has become the new consensus on Wall Street.

阿里巴巴计划减持小鹏汽车 2,500 万股，套现 3.91 亿美元，持股比例从 10.2% 降至 7.5%，但仍是小鹏汽车第二大股东。阿里巴巴称此举是出于资本管理目标，而非对小鹏的看法变化，表示将继续与小鹏在云计算等领域开展合作。小鹏方面表示，阿里减持是执行季报提及的投资变现回报股东策略，对小鹏前景仍持乐观态度。

阿里减持小鹏套现 3.91 亿美元 持股降至 7.5%

SENSETIME-W announced that after the passing of Professor Tang Xiaou, his holdings of 6.906 billion Class A shares will be converted into Class B shares. After the conversion, there will be 614.03 million Class A shares, accounting for approximately 15.75% of the company's voting rights, and 32.855 billion Class B shares, accounting for approximately 84.25% of the company's voting rights. Professor Tang and related entities have committed not to sell the Class A and Class B shares within two years. The total number of converted Class A and Class B shares is 8.034 billion and 614.03 million, accounting for approximately 36.35% of the company's voting rights.

SenseTime-W: Tang Xiaoyou indirectly converted 6.906 billion Class A shares into Class B shares.

三个月整存整取利率攀上 1.5%，部分银行年末 “发红包”

新东方创始人俞敏洪表示，将对东方甄选进行一轮大调整，包括董宇辉等主播的薪资待遇。他希望通过此次调整为公司奠定良好的发展方向和基础。俞敏洪还表示，希望东方甄选能在宇辉和团队的努力以及自己的带领下，在未来发展得更好。

俞敏洪：东方甄选将很快启动一轮大调整，包括董宇辉等主播薪资

新政落地后，京沪楼市出现了一些积极的变化。部分二手房中介门店的带看量有所提升，首付压力减小，有二手置换客买大 20 平方米。新政也有利于打通二手房、新房市场的销售通道，新房项目的到访量提升 50%，北京单日新房成交涨 30%。这些变化对购房者的决策产生了影响。

京沪新政落地首个周末：有二手房置换客买大 20 平米，新楼盘到访量提升 50%

The private credit market in the blockchain is recovering, with a growth of 55% so far this year. More and more companies are using blockchain-based private credit to seek financing, as it offers lower rates and higher transparency compared to traditional credit providers. The active private loans on the digital ledger have reached approximately $408 million. However, this number is still lower than last year's peak and only represents a small portion of the traditional private credit market. Advocates of blockchain believe that it can reduce loan risks and make transactions more transparent and convenient.

The private credit market in the blockchain sector has rebounded, with a growth of 55% year-to-date.

甲骨文公司发布季度财报，云计算收入放缓导致股价下跌超 10%，市值减少约 2813 亿人民币。甲骨文的估值稍高，股价下跌可视为对过度估值的纠正。市场对甲骨文增强云基础设施能力表示担忧，管理层承诺保持 50% 以上的 OCI 增长，缓解英伟达 GPU 供应问题，并持续整合扩展 Cerner 业务。此外，市场也担忧其他主流云计算企业的资本开支低于预期。

外资看财报「甲骨文」：云计算开支不及预期

Zhao Haibin believes that the economic growth rate next year will be close to the target. It is expected that the central bank may provide support of trillions of yuan, focusing on affordable housing and the transformation of urban villages, through structural monetary policy tools such as PSL, to provide more obvious support. It is recommended that the government purchase commercial housing through "group procurement" and convert it into affordable housing.

Morgan Stanley's Zhu Haibin: It is expected that the fiscal deficit rate will remain at 3.8% next year. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 10 basis points and reserve requirements by 75 basis points. | Alpha Summit

下一步，谷歌需要把 Gemini 大模型整合进旗下产品，同时又不蚕食搜索等现有业务份额。

谷歌这一年：从恐慌到豪赌，All In AI 大战

李彦宏在一场对谈中表示，人工智能的大模型具有通用性，能够在各种场景下快速应用，这是 AI 出现 70 年来完全不同的机会。他强调大模型的关键在于应用，提出了三个发展好应用的关键因素。他认为，现有企业应利用大模型对业务核心指标产生正向作用，同时需要更多创业公司进行尝试。总结来说，大模型的出现为 AI 带来了巨大的机遇。

李彦宏：AI 出现 70 年来完全不一样的机会，几百个模型是对社会资源巨大浪费

金十数据 12 月 17 日讯，在俞敏洪和董宇辉出面平息大家质疑后，东方甄选又一高管发声。12 月 16 日，东方甄选 CFO 尹强在朋友圈表示，新东方的故事总会有一个 happy ending，黑夜足够长，才让人们觉得黎明的光是那么亮，让大家操心了。截至 17 日 12 时，董宇辉粉丝数量依旧在飞速上涨，已达到 2049.0 万，此前一天的 12 月 16 日 10 点 30 分，其粉丝数量为 1696.6 万，一天内涨粉超 352 万。

董宇辉粉丝数已突破 2000 万 东方甄选 CFO：新东方的故事总会有个圆满结局

罗永浩直言东方甄选是直播电商中最不公平、荒唐、欺负压榨年轻人的现象级公司。他认为董宇辉在东方甄选的贡献没有得到公平回报，应该拿走至少一半的收益才算公平。罗永浩认为，东方甄选可能因为董宇辉性格上的问题，这种现象会持续下去。他称这个事件 “荒唐”“恶心”，并对东方甄选的做法表示不满。

罗永浩 “炮轰” 东方甄选

随着冲突事态升级，两大航运巨头暂停红海运输，苏伊士运河面临关闭风险，全球供应链雪上加霜。马士基和赫伯罗特已暂停红海和曼德海峡的航行计划，可能重新绕非洲航行。此举将增加全球贸易成本和延误。航运业呼吁制止违反国际法的行为。运输成本可能跳涨，全球航运市场混乱。苏伊士运河关闭的可能性很小，但仍存在风险。

两大航运巨头暂停红海运输，全球海运堵塞加剧！

You can leave anytime if you're not happy.

Dong Yuhui has lost his spark.

俞敏洪：正策划带着董宇辉去国外直播。

The CEO of Intel claims that Nvidia's CUDA technology has a shallow and small moat, and asserts that for artificial intelligence, inference technology will be more important than training.

Intel CEO criticizes Nvidia's "AI moat": The entire industry is motivated to eliminate the CUDA market

俞敏洪：罢免孙东旭与董宇辉无关，主要是管理不善。

董宇辉：还是会继续在东方甄选，不希望自己摇身一变成为卖货主播。

商汤科技创始人汤晓鸥因病去世，猎豹移动董事长傅盛悼念并提醒创业者保重身体。傅盛还建议大家查查心肌酶，因为新冠病毒可能会导致心肌受损。

猎豹移动傅盛悼念汤晓鸥：太突发了！各位创业者要保重身体

腾讯投资 14 亿撒钱，与网易的《蛋仔派对》展开竞争，派对游戏成为厂商关注的焦点。腾讯的《元梦之星》获得了 14 亿元生态建设资金，同时推出生态激励基金和冠军杯计划，力图复制《王者荣耀》的成功。腾讯总裁刘炽平表示，腾讯正在寻求运营带有 UGC 功能的热门休闲游戏，如《元梦之星》。

撒钱 14 亿，腾讯能砸出下一个「王者」吗？

字节跳动的账户被 OpenAI 冻结，原因是字节跳动使用了 OpenAI 的技术来开发自家大语言模型。OpenAI 暂停了字节跳动的账户，并表示将进一步调查。如果发现违规行为，将要求字节跳动进行必要的更改或终止账户。这次抄袭风波是根据字节跳动的一份内部文件揭露的，文件显示字节跳动在 “种子计划” 项目中依赖 OpenAI 的 API 进行开发。目前还不清楚微软是否也会暂停字节跳动的账户。

字节 GPT 账户突遭冻结，OpenAI：正在调查不当行为

商汤科技香港公司总经理尚海龙发布朋友圈称，巨星陨落，天妒英才，沉痛悼念。此前曾传出商汤创始人汤晓鸥去世，商汤官方表示 “今天下午将对外公布相关信息”。

Wall Street investment firm Bernstein analysts believe that AI chip leader NVIDIA is a relatively inexpensive investment target in the AI boom. They have given NVIDIA stock an "outperform" rating and predicted a target price of $700, with a potential increase of 43% in the next year. So far this year, NVIDIA's stock price has risen by 240%, outperforming the S&P 500 index and the seven major tech giants. Bernstein analysts believe that NVIDIA's current valuation is attractive, with a relatively optimistic price-to-earnings ratio, and investors may consider investing.

The AI boom is sweeping the world, and "shovel sellers" like NVIDIA are unstoppable! Bernstein is bullish on the stock, with a target price of $700.

11 月经济数据显示，供给端数据偏高，工业增加值环比 0.87%，固定资产投资环比 0.26%。需求端数据有待提升，社零环比-0.06%。房地产销售同比有限改善。工业增加值同比从 4.6% 上行至 6.6%，新能源带动下，发电设备同比增速达 57.8%。11 月社会消费品零售总额环比-0.06%，同比增速较快的有餐饮、体育娱乐、服装鞋帽、烟酒、汽车、手机等。总体来看，11 月经济数据正向，但仍存在 “有效需求不足” 的问题。

如何看 11 月经济数据

金十数据 12 月 16 日讯，针对 “阿里巴巴减持部分小鹏汽车股权” 一事，小鹏汽车今日回应称，阿里减持是在执行其 Q3 季报对外沟通的投资变现回报股东的策略，而不是因为对小鹏公司的看法变化。阿里此后仍然是小鹏第二大股东，持股约 8%，将继续和小鹏汽车在云计算等领域开展深度战略合作。此外，小鹏汽车强调，今年与大众建立了战略合作，大众目前是小鹏的第三大股东。小鹏目前在手现金超过 400 亿元，下半年正向的自由现金流达数十亿元，现金充裕且现金流大幅改善。

小鹏汽车：阿里减持是执行其投资变现策略 目前仍为公司第二大股东

After falling more than 100 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded and continued to hit new historical highs, while the Nasdaq rose for the seventh consecutive day. The S&P 500 had a slight decline after six consecutive gains, but both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq achieved their longest weekly gains since 2017. Chip stocks reached new highs, with Intel rising more than 2%, Broadcom rising more than 2%, and recording a nearly 20% gain for the week, reaching a record high. Microsoft and Amazon rebounded, rising more than 1%. Chinese concept stocks ended their four-day winning streak, with JD.com rising more than 4% and XPeng Motors falling more than 7%. After speeches by the top three officials of the Federal Reserve, US bond yields quickly hit a daily high, with the two-year yield briefly rising more than 10 basis points, but then giving up most of the gains. The ten-year yield approached 4.0% before turning lower. The US dollar index rose and hit a daily high, breaking away from a four-month low. UK bond yields fell more than 30 basis points in a week. The offshore renminbi rose above 7.10 for the first time in six months, but then fell nearly 400 points before the end of the week, still recording a gain of more than 500 points for the week. Maersk suspended shipping in the Red Sea, and crude oil erased most of its intraday decline of nearly 2%, but still closed lower for the week, ending the longest seven-week decline in four years. Gold turned lower during the trading session, bidding farewell to its weekly high, but still rebounded for the week. London aluminum rose for the fourth consecutive week, and London zinc rose more than 5% for the week.

The top three officials of the Federal Reserve are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts, causing a "flash drop" in US bonds. Super central banks have seen a significant increase this week, while the upward momentum of US stocks has slowed down, but still maintained a seven-week streak of gains.

According to the data, gold has become the new favorite of online shopping at Costco Wholesale. In the first fiscal quarter ending on November 26th, the company sold over $100 million worth of gold.

Inflation is too high and Americans love gold too! Costco Wholesale imposes strict purchase limits, selling $100 million worth of gold bars last quarter.

On Friday, Bitcoin-related stocks fell. As of the time of writing, Marathon Digital and MicroStrategy dropped nearly 2%, Coinbase fell over 3.2%, and Bit Digital and Riot Platforms fell over 2%. Bitcoin fell below $42,000 per coin, down 2.34% intraday.

US Stock Market Update | Bitcoin falls below $42,000, Bitcoin-related stocks decline

一场内讧导致东方甄选公司股价下跌，董宇辉的去留仍未确定。这场内讧的根源在于东方甄选未能适应董宇辉作为顶级 KOL 的身份和利益分配问题。董宇辉的粉丝群体也因此转向竞争对手。尽管公司高层已道歉，但事件仍未平息。这场内讧是东方甄选公司面临的现实考验，也暴露了公司对董宇辉的依赖。股价下跌和粉丝流失对公司产生了负面影响。

一场大肆张扬的内讧

台积电宣布开始研发 1.4nm 芯片技术，并计划在 2027 年-2028 年之间量产。此前，台积电已经开始预生产 2nm 工艺，首批客户包括英伟达和苹果。目前，台积电已量产的最先进技术是 3nm 工艺的 A17pro 芯片，2024 年将逐步放量。咨询机构预测，10nm 以下制程的占比将会大幅提升。虽然 1.4nm 芯片的成本巨大，但台积电不得不做，因为竞争对手已经在进行。台积电此次技术创新的意义比商业回报更明显。

台积电发力 1.4nm 芯片，缠斗三星英特尔

蔚来市值涨 70 亿，李斌回答了 140 个问题，表示未来将通过提升销售服务体系和技术来赢得销量。蔚来在港股飙涨近 7%，市值一夜涨超 70 亿。李斌认为，2024 年—2025 年，高端纯电新能源汽车市场将迎来爆发式增长的拐点。他还承认今年最大教训是销售能力滞后，表示如果增加销售能力培训，将能多卖 1 万台车。明年蔚来品牌将不会发布新车，将更专注于其他方面。

李斌站了两小时，蔚来市值涨 70 亿

上海市发改委等五部门：本市在非营业性客车总量控制的原则下，对消费者购买新能源汽车用于非营运的，免费发放专用牌照额度，实施办法自 2024 年 1 月 1 日起施行，有效期至 2024 年 12 月 31 日。

京东美股盘前涨超 4.5%。午后网传京东副总裁 “挖角” 董宇辉。

UPBEST GROUP recently issued a notice warning investors and shareholders about the existence of fraudulent mobile applications and phishing emails. Some individuals are impersonating company employees or customer service representatives and engaging in fraudulent activities using a mobile application called "UpbestGroup" and an email address "upbest.top," resulting in cryptocurrency losses for investors. The company reminds the public to only use official applications and official email addresses for transactions, and to exercise caution when receiving invitations and requests from suspicious individuals. The company's official website is www.upbest.com.

UPBEST GROUP: Warning on Fraudulent Mobile Applications and Scam Emails

高途美股盘前一度涨超 14%，消息称高途佳品抖音官号 “高途佳品” 4 天涨粉超 99 万，一场直播带货 500 万-750 万，相比一周前带货成绩暴涨 500 倍。

According to reports, Alphabet-C is still developing smart glasses software, OpenOpenAI and Snap are joining forces, Meta and Ray-Bans complement each other's strengths, Apple is prepared on the hardware side, and Amazon plans to launch a multi-modal OpenAI device.

OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms have successively entered the stage, and the overseas AI terminal battle is focused on: glasses!

12 月 15 日，中国人民银行党委召开扩大会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，研究部署贯彻落实工作。会议强调，发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，引导金融机构加大对科技创新、绿色转型、普惠小微、数字经济等方面的支持力度，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融 “五篇大文章”。持续做好支持民营经济发展壮大金融服务。因城施策精准实施好差别化住房信贷政策，更好支持刚性和改善性住房需求，一视同仁满足不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求。加大对保障性住房建设等 “三大工程” 的支持力度，推动房地产业转型和高质量发展。

央行：加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度，一视同仁满足不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求

The Federal Reserve has signaled a rate cut, which will have an impact on investments and debts. Stocks and risky assets may be positively affected. A 60/40 investment portfolio may be successful. At the same time, global assets may also benefit from the rate cut in the United States.