Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi - The Three Kingdoms of Mobile Phones

Author | Huang Yu

In the Chinese high-end smartphone market, which has been dominated by Apple for many years, there is finally some excitement this year. In addition to the return of Huawei, XIAOMI-W, which has undergone nearly four years of exploration in the high-end market, has also gained a stronger presence.

Recently, market research firm BCI released data on new device activations in November (Week 44 - Week 48). In the market segment above 4,000 yuan, although Apple still holds the top spot with a 50.8% market share, it has experienced a YoY decline of 21.2% due to the impact of XIAOMI-W and Huawei.

Huawei is gradually regaining its lost market share in the high-end market with the Mate 60 series. In November, its market share reached approximately 22.3%, with a YoY growth of 8.8%. Thanks to the popular XIAOMI-W 14 series, XIAOMI-W also obtained a market share of over 10% in the high-end market, with a YoY growth of 11.8% to 14.4% in November.

This achievement is very rare for XIAOMI-W. According to data released by IDC, in the first half of this year, Apple ranked first in the Chinese high-end smartphone market with a market share of 67%, followed closely by Huawei at 15.6%. OPPO ranked third with 4.2%, and XIAOMI-W ranked fourth with 3.7%.

XIAOMI-W's performance in the high-end market in November finally allowed Lei Jun to hold his head high. It broke through in the high-end smartphone market dominated by Apple and Huawei, creating a gap with other domestic brands. During the same period, vivo, Honor, and OPPO had high-end market shares of approximately 3.8%, 2.7%, and 1.8% respectively.

Driven by high-end smartphones, XIAOMI-W's overall sales performance in November was also impressive. According to BCI data, the number of new XIAOMI-W device activations in November increased by 44.1% YoY to 5.243 million units, reclaiming the top spot among domestic brands with an 18.3% market share and ranking second overall.

Compared to other brands, XIAOMI-W's growth rate is only second to Huawei. Apple, which ranked first overall, saw a slight YoY increase of 2.2% in new device activations to 6.044 million units. Honor and Huawei ranked third and fourth with a small gap between them, but Huawei's activations increased significantly by 75.6% YoY to 4.014 million units. The activations of other major smartphone manufacturers all declined by more than 10% YoY.

It is worth mentioning that the data provided by BCI represents device activations rather than shipments, which can better reflect the actual sales of smartphone brands in the market.

Lei Jun is excited about XIAOMI-W's outstanding performance in November. On December 11th, he repeatedly shared XIAOMI-W's achievements on Weibo, stating that XIAOMI-W has been striving for high-end development for three to four years and has finally achieved some results. Upscaling is a correct yet challenging path for XIAOMI-W.

In the current declining and saturated smartphone market, upscaling is an important direction for smartphone brands, and Lei Jun, the founder of XIAOMI-W, firmly believes in it. In his annual speech in August this year, Lei Jun emphasized that going upscale is not only the inevitable path for XIAOMI-W's development but also a matter of life and death. XIAOMI-W cannot waver on this issue and must persist to the end.

The XIAOMI-W 14 series, which went on sale at the end of October, achieved explosive sales by offering fully loaded configurations without increasing the price. This has positioned XIAOMI-W, known for its "born for enthusiasts" concept, and the leading domestic smartphone brand Huawei to sandwich Apple in the high-end market. However, it must be acknowledged that there is still a considerable gap between XIAOMI-W and Huawei and Apple in forming a three-way competition.

Market research institutions have expressed skepticism about XIAOMI-W's path to upscaling. XIAOMI-W's challenges mainly lie in foldable smartphones and distribution channels in cities below the third-tier.

It is well known that foldable screens have been seen as an important opportunity for domestic smartphones to surpass their competitors in the high-end market in recent years. However, the aforementioned sources pointed out that compared to Huawei and OPPO, XIAOMI-W has invested fewer resources (technology, funds, manpower, etc.) in foldable smartphones.

Indeed, XIAOMI-W's performance in the foldable smartphone market is relatively lagging. According to Counterpoint data, in the third quarter of this year, the top five players in the foldable smartphone market in terms of market share were Huawei, Samsung, Honor, OPPO, and vivo, with XIAOMI-W ranking sixth with a market share of about 8%.

In terms of distribution channels, the aforementioned market research institutions stated that cities below the third-tier are almost dominated by OPPO and vivo, who perform better on traditional holidays and non-e-commerce promotion days. XIAOMI-W's strong performance in November was mainly due to the Singles' Day e-commerce promotion, as online channels are its strength.

Therefore, the true test of XIAOMI-W's achievements in upscaling will depend on its performance during upcoming holidays such as New Year's Day, Chinese New Year, and summer vacation.

It is not easy for a second domestic smartphone brand to establish a foothold in the high-end smartphone market. It not only requires no shortcomings in software and hardware but also demands innovative technology and the creation of a deeply ingrained high-end brand image.

Huawei is the only domestic smartphone brand that has been able to compete with Apple in the high-end market. It took the high-end route when it first entered the smartphone market and combined it with the prestigious image of being a leader in cutting-edge Chinese technology.

Before being sanctioned by the United States, Huawei's market share in the high-end smartphone market once surpassed Apple. According to IDC data, in the first half of 2020, Huawei accounted for approximately 44.1% of the high-end smartphone market (above $600) in China, while Apple accounted for 44%, and XIAOMI-W ranked third with 4%. In the two years of silence after Huawei, Apple dominated the high-end smartphone market in China. In recent years, with the continuous investment in high-end flagship models by domestic smartphone brands, their market share in the Chinese smartphone market above $600 has started to rise to around 30%.

The competition in the future Chinese high-end smartphone market is bound to become increasingly fierce, but it is still unknown which company will secure the third position.