比特币加持下美国 ETF 市场 “火爆”，2024 年开局破纪录。上周，11 只备受瞩目的现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 首次亮相，为 2024 年 ETF 市场的发行创下了纪录。据发行商和分析师的数据显示，2024 年前两周内，共有 35 只新 ETF 登场，比去年同期增长显著。其中，有 9 只新创建的现货比特币 ETF 和 2 只现货比特币 ETF 的转换。预计今年的 ETF 发行总数将超过去年的 520 次纪录。

比特币加持下美国 ETF 市场 “火爆”  2024 年开局破纪录

The Nasdaq rose more than 1%, erasing its New Year's decline, and the Nasdaq 100 hit a new all-time high. Chip stocks outperformed the market, with TSMC up nearly 10%, AMD briefly up more than 5%, and Nvidia up nearly 2%; Apple rose more than 3%, leading the way for blue-chip tech stocks, while Microsoft hit a new all-time high and Tesla fell nearly 2%. Chinese concept stocks initially rose more than 1% but then turned lower, marking a fourth consecutive decline, with XPeng Motors falling more than 2%. After the release of US jobless data, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a one-month high, while the 2-year yield initially rose and then fell back; the US dollar index turned higher, approaching a one-month high before giving up its gains. Bitcoin fell more than $2,000, dropping below $41,000. Offshore renminbi initially rose more than 100 points to reclaim 7.21, but then fell in the short term. US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, pushing oil prices to a three-week high and erasing their year-to-date decline, with US oil up more than 2%. Gold ended its two-day decline and rebounded from a five-week low. The LME copper index rose for a seventh consecutive day, lifting copper prices from a two-month low.

Tech stocks support the rebound of the US stock market, Taiwan Semiconductor's earnings report is expected to be positive, chip stocks rise more than 3%, NVIDIA and AMD hit new all-time highs together.

Bank of America analysts have significantly raised Apple's target price by more than 8%, 23% higher than Wednesday's closing price. They believe that AI and the mixed reality headset Vision Pro will bring upward momentum to Apple's hardware and services business, and the generative AI feature will make Apple's long upgrade cycle even stronger. Apple's stock price rose more than 3%, erasing the decline since the beginning of the year.

In the midst of a wave of skepticism, there is a contrarian optimism! Bank of America has upgraded Apple's rating and predicts that the stock price will rise by more than 20%.

BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF has surpassed the $1 billion mark in size, becoming the first ETF to exceed this milestone since the listing of nine ETFs tracking the spot price of Bitcoin last week. Fidelity Investments closely follows with a size of approximately $880 million. The two new ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity have captured 68% of the inflows into Bitcoin funds. On Thursday, Bitcoin fell to around $41,000.

Since the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it has been falling every day! BlackRock breaks through $1 billion.

巴西 B3 交易所：B3 比特币期货合约仍取决于监管机构批准。

贝莱德和富达是最早推出比特币 ETF 的公司，贝莱德的比特币 ETF 规模已超过 10 亿美元，富达的比特币 ETF 也吸引了约 8.8 亿美元的资金流入。这两家公司获得了九支新 ETF 资金流入的 68%，总额近 20 亿美元。投资者对比特币 ETF 的兴趣很大，其中很多资金来自离开 Grayscale Investment 旗下 GBTC 基金的投资者。贝莱德和富达可能会在市场上获得更大的份额，得益于其机构和零售分销网络。

贝莱德比特币现货 ETF 率先突破 10 亿美元门槛 富达投资紧随其后

美联储需要银行准备金保持在较高水平以确保金融系统的流动性，因此如果美联储本轮缩表在 11 月结束，那时准备金规模将为 3.2 万亿。

摩根大通：为避免 “流动性危机” 重演，美联储该考虑停止 QT 了

Popular Chinese concept stocks surged before the market opened, with PDD, BIDU-SW, iQIYI, XPeng, and Li Xiang Automotive all rising more than 1%. Bilibili rose more than 2%, while NIO rose more than 5%.

US stock index futures mostly rise, Chinese concept stocks surge before the market, European stocks rise across the board

巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦从哈斯拉姆（Haslam）家族手中收购了美国最大的旅行服务中心运营商—Pilot 旅游中心剩余的 20% 股权，成为全资子公司。Pilot 是北美最大的旅行服务中心运营商，在美国 44 个州和加拿大 6 个省拥有 650 多个旅游中心和 150 多个零售点。巴菲特持续加码通胀，更看好通胀相关资产。

从石油到旅游，巴菲特持续加码通胀

Goldman Sachs points out that despite recent concerns about inflation rebounding, the overall downward trend has not changed, and the overheated labor market is returning to balance, all of which support the arrival of interest rate cuts.

Rate cut expectations shattered? Goldman Sachs: We remain optimistic

袁骏详解外汇交易的主要工具是期货、现金和期权。期货是外汇市场上最直接最简单的工具，港交所和新交所都有交易。离岸人民币的期货可以在海外交易，交易量非常大。新交所的交易量比港交所大 3-5 倍，因为新加坡是亚洲宏观对冲的主要交易中心。新加坡还有发达的利率产品和汇率交易。

袁骏：详解外汇交易的主要工具——期货/Cash/Option

中国式 TAMP 平台的生存空间主要取决于投顾市场格局和土壤肥沃程度。TAMP 平台是一种以服务投顾为中心的商业模式，为客户提供咨询、下单和记录等服务，并根据客户资产规模和赚钱情况获取报酬。嘉信理财是一个成功的案例，他们发现了投顾这个快速崛起的群体，为其提供支持并推出了共同基金全一账户。80 年代末，为投顾提供专业产品和服务成为嘉信理财的重要业务。TAMP 平台后来发展为全托资产管理平台。

中国式 TAMP「等风来」

In just three years, he managed to grow his funds by 1640 times to reach $42 million, setting a new world record for the highest personal investment portfolio growth.

Earnings increase by 1640 times in 3 years! What are his operating skills?

香港证监会和警方提醒公众警惕涉嫌虚拟资产欺诈行为，涉事实体为名为 Aramex 和 DIFX 的虚拟资产交易平台。警方已封锁了它们的网站，但公众仍需警惕可能出现的相似域名网站。Aramex 假装提供免费投资意见，诱使受害人投资并存入资金后无法提取，DIFX 也采用类似手法。公众应提防社交媒体和即时通讯软件上的虚假投资机会和意见，保持警惕并提防欺诈行为。

香港证监会和警方告诫公众提防 Aramex 及 DIFX 的涉嫌虚拟资产相关欺诈行为

As of January 15th, 2024, the MPF (Mandatory Provident Fund) performance has been weak, with a decline of 1.3%, resulting in an average per capita loss of HKD 3,184. Stock, mixed asset, and fixed income fund indices all recorded negative returns in January, with stock funds experiencing the largest decline of 2.2%. For investors, US stocks still hold investment value, and Japanese stock funds are also assets worth considering for allocation. The Hong Kong stock market is currently at a low point, and investors need to be patient and wait for a rebound. There is a greater chance for the Hong Kong stock market to rise to around 18,000 points this year, but it will depend on the impact of news.

GUM: As of January 15th, the average loss per person in Hong Kong's Mandatory Provident Fund was HKD 3,184.

The two e-commerce giants have fired the first shot in the low-price competition for 2024.

JD is firing at PDD again.

中国商务部发言人表示，中方反对有关国家干涉半导体正常贸易，干扰企业间正常交流合作。中国是全球主要的半导体市场之一，欢迎各国半导体企业和产品进入中国，共享机遇，共赢发展。

商务部：中方反对有关国家干涉半导体正常贸易

据 Altman 介绍，GPT-5 将是一个多模态模型，支持语音、图像、代码和视频，并在个性化和定制化功能方面实现重大更新，具备更强的推理能力和更高的准确性。当前大模型的通病——幻觉问题也将在 GPT-5 中得到解决。

GPT-5 首次曝光后，Altman：现在最重要的事就是 GPT-5

花旗预计美联储将在 6 月开始降息，降幅可能达到 125 个基点。汇丰认为近期因素难以帮助澳元，下跌可能加剧。瑞银指出比特币的基本面依然疲弱。高盛预测印度大选结束后将有更多外国资金涌入印度股市。摩根大通警告不要以为美国经济一切都好。法兴银行认为对美联储 3 月降息的预期可能过于依赖历史。荷兰国际预计德国经济将持续衰退，可能连续两年衰退。荷兰国际还指出美元走强和风险环境的趋软可能拖累英镑兑美元重返 1.2500 区域。德商银行预计加拿大央行将在下周再次讨论加息问题，加元仍将适度升值。德商银行认为市场不太可能调整欧央行降息的预期，欧元回调仍需时间。法巴银行认为欧元兑美元长期具有上涨潜力，年底料收于 1.15。凯投宏观认为飞涨的租金不会迫使澳洲联储再次加息。

每日投行/机构观点梳理

据中国网，国家发改委副主任刘苏社表示，修订全国版外资准入负面清单，全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制措施。加快推动出台实施吸引和利用外资的综合性政策，通过加大支持保障政策力度、对接高标准国际经贸规则等一揽子务实举措，着力解决外资企业面临的难点堵点问题。

国家发改委：抓紧出台政策 全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制措施

金十数据 1 月 18 日讯，国家发改委表示，今年要下大力气改善居民收入预期、提高消费能力、增强消费意愿。一是促进居民多渠道增收。更加突出就业优先导向，确保重点群体就业稳定，积极拓宽居民增收渠道，扩大中等收入群体规模，强化农民增收举措。二是创新商品和服务供给。大力发展数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费，积极培育智能家居、文娱旅游、体育赛事、国货 “潮品” 等新的消费增长点，促进新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费，同时以提高技术、能耗、排放等标准为牵引，推动消费品以旧换新。

国家发改委：今年要下大力气改善居民收入预期、提高消费能力、增强消费意愿

国家发展改革委副秘书长、国民经济综合司司长袁达：国家发展改革委将持续强化经济形势分析，加强经济监测预测预警和政策预研储备，打好宏观政策组合拳，进一步提升宏观调控前瞻性、科学性、有效性，不断巩固和增强经济回升向好态势。

国家发展改革委副秘书长、国民经济综合司司长袁达表示，下一步，国家发展改革委将健全完善评估机制。在总结近两年宏观政策取向一致性评估工作基础上，提出进一步强化评估的要求，明确评估范围，完善评估流程，科学精准评估包括非经济性政策在内的政策影响，更好服务高质量发展大局。强化政策实施过程中的一致性。推动相关部门科学研判形势变化，抓好政策出台窗口期；切实强化预期管理，充分征求意见建议，合理设置政策过渡期，确保各项工作充分衔接、有序推进；加强政策实施过程中潜在风险的分析研判，防止层层加码、“一刀切” 等问题，促进政策最终效果符合党中央决策意图。

国家发改委：将强化政策实施过程中的一致性 加强政策实施过程中潜在风险的分析研判

商业地产危机未过，降温的降息预期又来关键一击。

美联储爆锤降息预期，美股最惨的是地产股

Based on the given news information, the most likely category is: information related to businesses. According to the information, Anthropic is an AI startup company that is developing a feature to enable its AI chatbot, Claude, to analyze images comprehensively. This feature can enhance Anthropic's competitiveness and help it catch up with larger competitors such as OpenAI and Alphabet-C.

"OpenAI's formidable rival" closely follows in the footsteps of OpenAI and intends to embed image analysis capabilities into Claude.

1 月 18 日，华尔街见闻获悉，在速卖通之后，阿里巴巴国际站也将上线半托管业务。华尔街见闻拿到的一份招商资料显示，相比全托管，在阿里国际站的半托管模式下，商家仍然是自己经营店铺，但物流、资金、售后等复杂环节都可以托管给平台。商家只要有现货能力都可以加入，这有望降低商家 “出海” 门槛，吸引更多现货供应链。

阿里巴巴国际站将上线半托管业务，瞄准内贸商家出海

港股午后拉升，恒生指数涨超 1%，恒生科技指数涨 1.17%，新世界发展、百度集团均涨超 3%。

台积电：预计今年第四季度在德国开始建设晶圆厂。

台积电：将于二月举行日本晶圆厂开幕仪式；在美国亚利桑那州，我们与美国政府就激励措施保持密切沟通。

In the last quarter, we achieved a net profit of TWD 238.7 billion, a YoY decrease of 19%, but a MoM growth of 13%, exceeding the expected TWD 224.1 billion.

Taiwan Semiconductor's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with a 6% surge in after-hours trading at one point.

Occidental Petroleum CEO stated that during the second half of the 20th century, the discovered crude oil reserves by oil companies were approximately five times the global demand. However, in recent decades, this ratio has significantly decreased and is currently around 25%.

Occidental Petroleum CEO warns: Global oil shortage expected next year

港股恒大汽车盘中涨超 20.00%，成交额仅为 550 余万港元。

港股恒大汽车盘中涨超 20%

Hong Kong stocks fell below 15,500 points. Charles Li, CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX), said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the Hong Kong stock market is approaching its "capitulation point" due to factors such as rising interest rates and geopolitical conflicts in various regions. This has led to a loss of confidence among investors and created a selling environment. Li stated that China's economic growth is forecasted to be 5%, which is still a considerable growth rate and could contribute an additional $1 trillion to the world's GDP. Li also expressed his pleasure in hearing Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reiterate the encouragement of private enterprise development and welcoming foreign investment. He believes that Hong Kong, in the long run, still holds a favorable position as a bridge between the East and the West. When asked about the lower amount of IPO fundraising in Hong Kong compared to India, Li pointed out that HKEX is expecting 73 IPOs in 2023, which is lower than the 90 IPOs in 2022, but the number is still acceptable. Due to the decline in valuations, Li understands that some companies are considering staying in the private equity market for financing instead of rushing to go public. Li declined to comment on the likelihood of Saudi Aramco, the Saudi Arabian state-owned oil company, listing in Hong Kong, but he did mention that Hong Kong is a suitable place for Middle Eastern companies to go public. Furthermore, Li explained the reason for not renewing his contract, stating that his family resides in the United States, and he needs to consider his personal development.

HKEX 欧冠升: Hong Kong stock market valuation approaches the "surrender point"

台积电 Q4 净利润 2387 亿新台币，市场预期为 2240 亿新台币，前值为 2959 亿新台币。

现货比特币交易所挂牌基金近日在美国正式上市，引起市场高度关注，新加坡金融管理局不允许这类金融产品在新加坡上市及面向散户投资者，因为比特币等加密货币并未列为 ETF 的合格资产。尽管如此，获金管局执照的资本市场中介机构提供海外市场相关投资，须确保充分的风险披露和适当的客户适合性评估。这意味散户仍能透过本地券商，交易在海外上市的现货比特币 ETF。

新加坡金管局：现货比特币 ETF 不能在新加坡上市

Due to the commercial real estate debt crisis and the impact of declining profits, Blackstone's flagship fund recorded its first loss in seven years.

Blackstone flagship fund suffers first loss since inception, with average annualized return of 11% over the years

开年以来，美国股债遭遇双杀，贵金属下跌，金价触及一个月低点。美联储官员放鹰，零售销售数据显示美国经济强劲，削弱 3 月份降息预期，推动美元指数上升。美股三大指数收跌，美债收益率创一个月新高。黄金、白银和铂金均下跌。欧央行官员放鹰，打压 4 月份降息预期，欧元兑美元汇率下跌。市场对美联储 3 月份降息预期遭到多次打击，数据表明经济依然强劲。

开年暴涨！“美元阴霾” 笼罩一切

京东快递小哥福利待遇非常出众，三年收入超百万，近百人达到这一水平。京东提供了包括 “五险一金” 在内的多项福利政策，为员工退休后提供养老金，保障了他们的退休生活。此外，京东还为员工缴纳公积金，最大限度保障员工未来置业计划。公司计划建起员工公寓和配套场所，提供免费住房支持和休闲娱乐设施，成为行业最大的员工福利投入。

京东：近百名快递小哥三年收入超百万！全员 “五险一金”

According to analysis, the latest price trend of Bitcoin indicates that so far, Bitcoin ETF has not made a profound impression on the market for highly anticipated products.

In the first three days of its listing, the Bitcoin spot ETF raised less than 900 million US dollars, which can hardly be considered a success.

* 摩通升拼多多目标价至 195 美元 今年内地互联网业首选

* 摩通升拼多多目标价至 195 美元  今年内地互联网业首选

萨尔瓦多总统的比特币投资浮亏约 8%。现货比特币 ETF 获批或将带来超 700 亿美元资本流入。GBTC 转换为比特币现货 ETF 后，摩根大通预计将流出 27 亿美元资金。超过 1 年未活跃的比特币流通供应量比例达 70.35%，创历史新高。灰度 GBTC 负溢价率进一步收窄至 9.78%。Coinbase 的储备增加约 1.2 万枚 BTC，Binance 的储备减少 5000BTC。新加坡将于 2024 年起禁止保证金杠杆交易。韩国将于 2024 年邀请 10 万公民测试 CBDC。美 CFTC 拟继续追查违规加密交易所，接触美国客户是特权而非权力。SBF 与洪都拉斯前总统被关押在一起，向警卫提供加密投资建议。

每日数字货币动态汇总

The Japanese bond market, which has seen an increase in interest rate expectations, requires "veterans who have been in the market since the 1980s".

High-paying recruitment for traders over 50 years old! Japanese financial institutions urgently seek "experience in trading during market prosperity and interest rate cycles"

美股 “一月效应” 是指美国股市在 1 月份的涨幅往往高于其他月份的现象。这种影响在过去几十年来曾经存在，但在 2000 年之后逐渐消退。投资者对 2024 年是否会出现 “一月效应” 持怀疑态度。该现象的起源可以追溯到 1942 年，由投资银行家西德尼·瓦赫特尔发现。然而，近年来随着大型科技股的狂热，该现象在一些指数上已经不再明显。

美股 “一月效应” 是什么？今年还会出现吗？

AlphaGeometry was able to answer 25 out of 30 Olympiad questions, almost reaching the highest level of human performance.

Close to the gold medal level of high school mathematics competition! Google DeepMind's AI makes a new breakthrough, "a crucial step towards building AGI"

* 汇丰研究降舜宇目标价至 89.7 元 智能手机光学规格升级推动定价及毛利复苏

* 汇丰研究降舜宇目标价至 89.7 元  智能手机光学规格升级推动定价及毛利复苏

市场消息：谷歌 CEO 在备忘录中告诉员工，可能会进一步裁员。

* 汇丰研究上调内地今明两年电动车销售增长预测 偏好比亚迪

* 汇丰研究上调内地今明两年电动车销售增长预测  偏好比亚迪

* 摩通降汇控目标价至 81 元 稳健 ROTE 及强劲现金回报支持估值

* 摩通降汇控目标价至 81 元  稳健 ROTE 及强劲现金回报支持估值

Real estate stocks became the biggest drag on the S&P 500 index on Wednesday as traders withdrew their bets on a Fed rate cut. The real estate market is bound to be impacted, especially office REITs. Real estate stocks are unlikely to recover stability for most of 2023, and investors are selling off stocks. The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) index is heading for its worst week since November last year.

US Real Estate Sector Plunges, Traders Reassess March Rate Cut Bets

Taiwan Semiconductor is set to announce its full-year performance for the fourth quarter on Thursday, with analysts predicting a 23% decline in Q4 profits. Analysts believe that the rebound in demand will drive growth this year. Taiwan Semiconductor had a strong performance in 2022, mainly driven by increased orders from customers such as Apple and NVIDIA. Although global semiconductor demand started to weaken in the second half of 2022, analysts expect an increase in demand for replenishing inventory by smartphone and computer manufacturers. Analysts at Fubon Securities express concerns about the outlook for Taiwan Semiconductor in the first quarter, but believe that demand from Apple will remain stable. Analysts at KGI Securities forecast a year-on-year revenue growth of around 20%, primarily driven by the recovery in demand for 5G and high-performance computing applications.