Tech stocks support the rebound of the US stock market, Taiwan Semiconductor's earnings report is expected to be positive, chip stocks rise more than 3%, NVIDIA and AMD hit new all-time highs together.

The recent rebound in the US stock market has brought a strong boost. Taiwan Semiconductor's fourth-quarter profit and revenue decline were lower than expected, and it is expected to return to robust growth in the first quarter of 2024, with annual revenue growth exceeding 20%. As a major supplier to the US chip industry and Apple, Taiwan Semiconductor's positive guidance brings good news for the recovery of smartphone and computing demand.

The financial report of Taiwan Semiconductor has stimulated a strong rebound in chip stocks, with the chip stock index approaching historical highs during the trading day. AMD surged, creating a new all-time high in stock price together with AI benchmark NVIDIA. Apple's stock price also rebounded strongly, erasing its losses since the beginning of the year. While Wall Street is filled with doubts, Bank of America has upgraded Apple's rating and expects the stock price to rise by more than 20%, showing confidence in Apple's long-term performance prospects and mentioning the promotion of Apple's hardware and services by AI and the Vision Pro mixed reality headset.

Technology stocks became the main driver of the upward movement in the US stock market on Thursday, supporting the rebound of the S&P and Nasdaq. However, the Dow briefly turned negative during the trading day, dragged down by UnitedHealth, a component stock affected by Humana's earnings warning. At midday, the US Senate passed a short-term federal spending bill, which helped expand the collective gains of the three major stock indexes, and the closing session refreshed the daily high.

Another set of data shows that the US economy is stronger than expected: the number of initial jobless claims for last week did not increase as analysts expected on a month-on-month basis, but instead decreased by 16,000 to 187,000, reaching a new low since September 2022, highlighting the resilience of the labor market at the beginning of the year. After the data was released, the prices of US Treasury bonds fell during the trading day, and short-term yields rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond reached a one-month high, and the yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, briefly erased its intraday decline and turned upward, but quickly returned to a downward trend.

Federal Reserve officials' speeches once again dampened expectations of interest rate cuts in the near future. Before the release of the jobless data, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated that he expects interest rate cuts to occur only in the third quarter of this year, stating that it is best to maintain high interest rates for a longer period if inflation slows down. The bond market reacted relatively calmly.

The market's probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March has further dropped to less than 55%.

In the foreign exchange market, after the release of US jobless data, the US dollar index completely erased its intraday decline and turned upward, approaching the one-month high set on Wednesday. Non-US currencies came under pressure during the trading day. After the release of US data, the British pound, which had reversed its three consecutive declines after the announcement of the UK CPI, briefly turned downward, and the Japanese yen quickly followed suit, approaching the near seven-week low set on Wednesday. The offshore renminbi briefly rose more than 100 points to recover 7.21, moving away from the two-month low set on Wednesday, but it briefly turned downward after the release of US data. In the commodity market, after the release of US unemployment data, gold initially gave back most of its intraday gains but managed to maintain its upward momentum, successfully rebounding from the five-week low set on Wednesday. Commentators believe that the geopolitical tensions caused by the US reclassifying the Houthi armed group in Yemen as a terrorist organization have attracted some safe-haven buying of gold. International crude oil also experienced a slight pullback after the release of US unemployment data, due to the rebound of the US dollar, but its upward trend remained intact.

Following the OPEC monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also predicts strong global oil demand growth, raising its oil demand forecast for 2024 by 180,000 barrels per day in its report. Moreover, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a nearly 2.5 million barrel decline in US crude oil inventories last week, far exceeding analysts' expectations. After the release of the EIA data, crude oil continued to rise, with US oil prices increasing by over 2%, erasing all the losses since the beginning of the year. Commentators believe that the market's concerns about a significant increase in crude oil inventories did not materialize, which to some extent supported the rise in oil prices. Additionally, the cold weather has disrupted US crude oil production, providing further support for higher oil prices.

The Nasdaq Composite Index erased its losses for the year, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new all-time high. Apple led the gains in blue-chip technology stocks, while chip stocks outperformed the broader market. Taiwan Semiconductor surged after its earnings report.

The three major US stock indices opened higher for the first time this week, with mixed performance thereafter and a new daily high at the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which initially fell after a slight opening gain of over 30 points, dropped by over 140 points at one point, down nearly 0.4%. However, it completely reversed the decline at midday and saw an increase of over 200 points at the close. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index maintained their upward momentum throughout the day, with the S&P reaching a new daily high with an increase of about 0.9% at the close. The Nasdaq, which initially rose by over 1%, saw its gains narrow later in the day but rose by over 1% again at midday.

In the end, all three indices closed higher for the first time this week, achieving their largest gains since January 8, when Nvidia's new product announcement led to a surge in technology stocks. The S&P and Nasdaq rebounded after two consecutive days of decline, breaking out of their respective closing lows since January 5, while the Dow halted its three-day decline. The S&P closed up 0.88% at 4,780.94 points, approaching the closing high since January 4, 2022, set last Friday. The Nasdaq closed up 1.35% at 15,055.65 points, reaching a closing high since December 28. The Dow, which had hit closing lows since December 20 for three consecutive days, closed up 201.94 points, or 0.54%, at 37,468.61 points.

The Nasdaq 100, which is dominated by technology stocks, closed up 1.47%, rebounding and setting a new closing high. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, closed up 2.02%, easily erasing the decline from Wednesday and setting a new closing high, surpassing the previous record set in the four consecutive trading days ending on Tuesday. Small-cap stocks, which are mainly value stocks, initially and briefly fell but closed up 0.55% for the day, rebounding after four consecutive days of decline and setting a new closing low since December 12. The three major US stock indexes continued to rise after the US Senate passed a short-term federal spending bill, with the closing price hitting a new daily high.

Among the Dow Jones constituents, Boeing led the gains with a more than 4% increase, followed by Apple. However, healthcare giant UnitedHealth (UNH) suffered the biggest decline due to Humana's downward revision of its full-year EPS guidance. UnitedHealth's stock fell more than 5% in early trading and closed down 1.6%. In the S&P 500, the IT sector, which includes chip stocks, led the gains with a 2% increase, followed by the industrial and communication services sectors, both up more than 1%. Among the four sectors that declined, utilities fell more than 1%, real estate fell 0.6%, and energy and consumer staples fell 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

Chip stocks rebounded strongly, outperforming the broader market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX rose by about 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, reaching their highest levels since December 28 and approaching the closing historical high set on December 27. Among individual stocks, Taiwan Semiconductor rose 9.8% after releasing its earnings report. AMD, which had risen by about 5.3% in early trading, closed up nearly 1.6%. Nvidia, which had risen 2.6% in early trading, closed up nearly 1.9%, both setting new intraday and closing highs. At the close, Arm rose more than 6%, Maxell Technologies rose more than 4%, Qualcomm and Applied Materials rose more than 4%, Broadcom rose more than 3%, and Intel rose more than 1%.

Most leading technology stocks rose, while Tesla, which is expanding its 4680 battery capacity and importing positive electrodes from China, fell in early trading and closed down nearly 2%, down 1.7% for two consecutive days, hitting a closing low since November 9.

Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Apple rose by about 3.3% after being upgraded from neutral to buy by analysts at Bank of America, with the target price raised by 8.2% to $225. This came after a 23% surge in the previous day's closing price. Microsoft, which had a six-day winning streak, rose 1.1% and rebounded to a new closing high since Tuesday. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, which had fallen for two consecutive days to a closing low in a week after the CEO mentioned possible further layoffs in a memo, rose nearly 1.5%. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, rose 2.1%, marking a two-day consecutive increase and reaching a closing high since September 2021. Amazon, which had fallen for three consecutive days, rose nearly 1.2%, while Netflix, which had fallen for three days, rose 1% and did not continue to fall from the closing high since January 2022.

Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and other seven major technology stocks reached new all-time highs on Thursday. AI concept stocks failed to collectively rebound, with most underperforming the market for three consecutive days. At the close, C3.ai (AI), which turned downward in early trading, fell more than 1%, BigBear.ai (BBAI), which also turned downward in early trading, fell more than 6%, Adobe (ADBE) fell 0.4%, while SoundHound.ai (SOUN), which had previously fallen, rose more than 1%, and Palantir (PLTR), which had previously fallen more than 1%, rose less than 0.1%.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks turned downward during trading. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) initially rose more than 1% but fell during early trading, closing down by about 0.2%. It has fallen for four consecutive trading days, reaching a new low since November 2022. The Chinese concept ETF KWEB fell 0.4%, while CQQQ rose nearly 0.6%. The three new energy vehicle companies all turned downward during trading, with XPeng Motors falling more than 2% at the close, Ideal Motors falling 0.8%, and NIO falling 0.3%. Among other individual stocks, at the close, iQiyi fell more than 6%, Alibaba, JD.com, New Oriental, and Bilibili fell more than 1%, Pinduoduo fell less than 0.1%, while Tusimple (TSP), which fell 46% after announcing voluntary delisting from Nasdaq on Wednesday, rose 29%, Daqo New Energy rose more than 2%, Baidu, NetEase, and JA Solar rose more than 1%, and Tencent Music Entertainment rose 0.7%.

Banking stocks showed mixed performance. The overall banking industry index, KBW Bank Index (BKX), fell more than 1% in early trading and closed down by about 0.5%, falling for seven consecutive trading days to a new low since December 12. The regional banking index, KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), rose 1%, and the regional banking stock ETF, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), rose by about 0.9%, both rebounding after falling for four consecutive days and reaching a new low since December 12.

Among the major banks that announced their earnings reports on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley fell more than 1% in early trading and closed down by 0.6%, while Goldman Sachs fell less than 0.1%. Among other major banks, Citigroup, which announced a layoff of 20,000 employees and the departure of three senior executives, initially turned downward, falling more than 1% in early trading and closing down by 0.5%, Wells Fargo fell 0.5%, Bank of America fell 0.2%, while JPMorgan Chase rose 0.2%.

Among the stocks with significant volatility, Spirit Airlines (SAVE), a low-cost airline company whose merger with JetBlue was blocked due to antitrust concerns raised by a U.S. judge, continued to plummet for the third consecutive day after being downgraded to "sell" by Citigroup on Thursday, falling more than 20% during trading and closing down by 7.2%, with a total decline of more than 60% over the past three days. Humana (HUM), a health insurance company that disclosed higher-than-expected medical expenses for the fourth quarter, which may affect its 2024 guidance, fell more than 10% during trading and closed down by 8%. Discover Financial Services (DFS), a financial services company that reported lower-than-expected EPS earnings for the fourth quarter, fell 10.8%. Birkenstock, a German footwear brand that warned of the impact on its full-year earnings due to its global expansion, fell more than 9% during trading and closed down by 7.7%. After being upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley and the news of its plan to sell 20,000 electric vehicles, car rental giant Hertz (HTZ) rose 7.5%. Japanese construction company Sumitomo Mitsui Construction Co., Ltd. reached a $4.95 billion acquisition agreement with MDC Holdings (MDC), a residential construction company, resulting in an 18.4% increase in MDC's stock price after a nearly 19% premium over Wednesday's closing price.

In Europe, some companies reported positive earnings, supporting a rebound in the pan-European stock index after three consecutive days of decline. The STOXX 600 index in Europe rebounded from its closing low on December 5th, but failed to erase the nearly 1.13% decline from Wednesday, which was the largest daily decline in nearly three months. Major European stock indexes rose on Thursday, with German, French, British, and Spanish stocks halting their three-day decline, and Italian stocks rebounding from Wednesday's drop.

In terms of sectors, the tourism and leisure sector surged 5.2%, driven by a 15.3% increase in the stock price of online gambling giant Flutter. Analysts believe that Flutter's fourth-quarter market share growth and better-than-expected profit margins indicate a promising outlook for 2024. The personal and household goods sector rose nearly 1.2%, mainly due to Lifoong's approximately 10.4% increase in sales in the third quarter, driven by revenue growth in the Chinese market, and other luxury goods giants such as LVMH and Kering also rose, supporting a more than 1% increase in the French stock index, leading among all countries.

Unemployment data pushes US 10-year Treasury yield to a one-month high, 2-year yield rises and then falls

Eurozone government bond prices fell overall, and yields continued to rise. The minutes of the European Central Bank meeting showed that central bank officials were concerned about market risks undermining the downward trend in inflation. After the release of US unemployment data, European bond yields followed the rise in US bond yields. The yield of UK bonds, which had soared after the release of Wednesday's CPI data, also fell slightly.

At the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK's 10-year benchmark government bond, which had risen by about 19 basis points on Wednesday, closed at 3.93%, a decrease of about 5 basis points during the day. The yield on the UK's 2-year bond, which had risen by about 22 basis points on Wednesday, closed at 4.28%, a decrease of about 8 basis points during the day. The yield on Germany's 10-year benchmark government bond closed at 2.35%, an increase of about 3 basis points during the day. It had briefly risen above 2.35% during US trading hours, reaching a six-week high for two consecutive days. The yield on Germany's 2-year bond closed at 2.68%, a decrease of about 1 basis point during the day. It had briefly fallen below 2.66% during European trading hours, reaching a daily low. After the release of US unemployment data, it had risen to 2.70%, stabilizing at a five-week high since December 13th and then falling back.

The yield on the US 10-year benchmark government bond fell below 4.07% during European trading hours, hitting a daily low, with a decrease of about 3 basis points during the day. It had already erased its decline and started to rise before the release of the data, and after the data was released, the increase quickly expanded, surpassing 4.10%. After the US stock market opened, it further increased, reaching above 4.15% at midday, setting a new high for three consecutive days since the first day of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 13th. The yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell below 4.31% during European stock trading, hitting a daily low. It dropped by about 5 basis points during the day, but quickly rebounded after the release of unemployment data, reaching a high of around 4.38% at one point, the highest in a week. It rose by nearly 2 basis points during the day, but quickly fell back. In early US stock trading, it fell below 4.36%, and at one point during midday trading, it dropped below 4.34%. By the end of the bond market, it was around 4.35%, down 1 basis point during the day after rising for two consecutive days.

The yields on various maturities of US Treasury bonds rose across the board during the day, but the short-term yields later gave back their gains.

After the release of US unemployment data, the US dollar index, which tracks the exchange rates of six major currencies including the euro, fell below 103.20 during Asian trading, hitting a daily low. It fell by nearly 0.3% during the day, but then rebounded. It rose above 103.60 in early US stock trading, approaching the intraday high since December 13th, which was set for two consecutive days on Wednesday. It rose by nearly 0.2% during the day, but gave back all its gains by the end of the day.

By the end of Thursday's trading, the US dollar index hovered around 103.40, down less than 0.1%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against ten other currencies, remained roughly flat, and both the US dollar index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index failed to rise for five consecutive trading days.

Among non-US currencies, the Japanese yen fell several times during the day, almost falling for four consecutive days. The US dollar against the yen fell below 147.70 before European stock trading, hitting a daily low. After the release of US unemployment data, it quickly rebounded and rose to 148.30, approaching the nearly seven-week high set on Wednesday when it rose above 148.50. The US stock market fell before the market opened, but rose more than once during the trading session, and closed roughly at the same level as the day before. The British pound against the US dollar rose above 1.2700 before European stock trading, hitting a daily high. It rose by nearly 0.3% during the day, but quickly fell after the release of US unemployment data, hitting a daily low of around 1.2650. The US stock market broke away from its downward trend in early trading and continued to rise, moving away from the low of December 13th when it fell below 1.2600. After the release of US unemployment data, the euro against the US dollar accelerated its decline, falling below 1.0870 during US stock trading, approaching the low since December 13th. It fell by about 0.3% during the day.

The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar hit a daily low of 7.2249 during early Asian trading, but quickly rebounded. Before European stock trading, it recovered to 7.21 and rose to 7.2079, rising by 139 points during the day, breaking away from the low of 7.23 set on November 17th. However, it continued to give back its gains. After the release of US unemployment data, there was a short-term decline in the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) approached $43,000 before the European stock market opened, hitting a daily high. However, the US stock market accelerated its decline in the morning session, falling below $41,000 at noon, and briefly testing $40,700 in the afternoon. It dropped more than $2,000 and over 5% from the daily high, hitting a new intraday low since January 3rd. This further distanced itself from the high of $49,000 reached on the first day of the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF last Thursday. At the close of the US stock market, it was slightly below $41,000, with a drop of over 4% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin's decline in the US stock market on Thursday expanded, with a drop of over $2,000 from the daily high, far from the high reached two years ago after the listing of the spot ETF a week ago.

Crude oil hits a three-week high, erasing the decline since the beginning of the year, US oil rises over 2%

International crude oil futures briefly declined during the European stock market session, and the increase narrowed after the release of US unemployment data. However, the increase continued to expand after the US stock market opened. At noon, when the US stock market hit a new high, US WTI crude oil approached $74.40, with an increase of about 2.5%. Brent crude oil rose to $79.30, with an increase of over 1.8%.

In the end, crude oil collectively rose for the first time in the past three trading days. WTI February crude oil futures, which rebounded during Wednesday's session, rose by 2.09% and closed at $74.08 per barrel, rising for two consecutive days. Brent March crude oil futures, which fell back on Wednesday, rose by 1.57% and closed at $79.10 per barrel. Both US and Brent crude oil hit new highs since December 27th.

US WTI crude oil continued to rebound on Thursday, surpassing $74, breaking through the fluctuation range since the beginning of the year.

US gasoline and natural gas futures continued to fluctuate. NYMEX February gasoline futures rose by 2.25% and closed at $2.1835 per gallon, hitting a new high since January 3rd for four consecutive trading days and rising for five consecutive days. NYMEX February natural gas futures fell by 6.03% and closed at $2.6970 per million British thermal units, hitting a new low since January 3rd for three consecutive days. It may fall by nearly 20% this week due to a 12.47% drop on Tuesday.

LME copper rises for seven consecutive days, breaking away from a two-month low, gold ends two consecutive declines, rebounding from a five-week low

London base metal futures on Thursday. LME copper rose for seven consecutive trading days. After closing above $25,000 for the first time since January 3rd on Tuesday, it reached a new high since the end of December, or the beginning of the year. LME copper and LME lead, which fell for two consecutive days, rebounded and broke away from the lows of the past two months and one week, respectively. LME nickel, which fell for five consecutive days, also rebounded and did not approach the low point since April 2021, which was created on January 4th. On Thursday, London zinc, which fell more than 3% on Wednesday, continued to decline for three consecutive days, hitting a new low since mid-December for two consecutive days. London aluminum also fell for two consecutive days, hitting a five-week low.

New York gold futures maintained an upward trend throughout Thursday. After the release of US unemployment data, it briefly gave up most of its gains and fell below $2010, with an increase of less than 0.2% during the day. However, the gains continued to expand, and the US stock market rose to $2024 at midday, an increase of nearly 0.9% during the day.

In the end, COMEX February gold futures, which had fallen for two consecutive days, closed up 0.75% at $2021.6 per ounce, rebounding from the closing low since December 13th set on Wednesday. Due to the consecutive declines of more than 1% on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the largest decline since January 3rd, gold is still expected to decline this week.

Spot gold fell below $2009 after the release of US unemployment data, with a narrow increase of 0.1% during the day. The US stock market rose above $2021 at midday, with an increase of over 0.7% during the day, rebounding from the intraday low since December 13th set on Wednesday, when it fell below $2002.

Spot gold briefly tested $2000 on Thursday and then rebounded above $2020.