恒指开盘涨 0.87%，恒生科技指数涨 1.36%。蔚来涨超 6%，京东集团涨超 4%，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩涨超 2%。

中国 12 月一年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR) 3.45%，预期 3.45%，前值 3.45%。

中国 12 月五年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR) 4.2%，预期 4.2%，前值 4.2%。

如果把纳斯达克 100 看作一种长期债券，其公允价值应该是 12877 点，比当前报价水平低了 23%。如果市场已经和合理估值脱钩，那么过去两月的大涨意味着该指数现在已经出现了泡沫！

理解市场 | 今年涨超 50%！纳指为什么已经太贵了？

散户投资者成为美股上涨的主要推动者，以 18 个月来最快的速度买入，上个月股市总需求超过 600 亿美元。散户通常是 ETF 的买家，上个月以美元计算创下历史新高。标普 500 ETF 自美联储 FOMC 以来已连续 4 天出现大量资金流入。

腾讯和网易相继进军派对游戏市场，腾讯自研的派对游戏《元梦之星》上线五天就获得了巨大成功，成为国民游戏的潜力之作。据七麦数据显示，该游戏在 iOS 平台已获得超过 5000 万元人民币的流水，预计安卓端收入更高。派对游戏市场正在从过去的 “小众” 走向 “大众”。

派对游戏成社交游戏新贵？ 腾讯、网易双巨头纷纷入局

特斯拉公司的管理人员对一些受薪员工说，公司今年不会提供基于绩效的股权奖励。该公司没有给出这一变化的原因。但来自不同部门的四名员工表示，他们认为这种调整是普遍的。工人们的生活成本仍有适度的增长，基本工资也有所调整。目前尚不清楚这是一次反常现象，还是特斯拉薪酬理念发生了更大的转变，即在股权授予方面采取了更有针对性的方式。

消息称特斯拉不进行年度员工股票奖励

美国法院批准了一项命令，要求币安和其创始人赵长鹏向 CFTC 支付总额为 28.5 亿美元的罚款。赵长鹏个人被处以 1.5 亿美元的民事罚款，并要求币安退还 13.5 亿美元的非法交易费用，同时对币安公司罚款 13.5 亿美元。此前，CFTC 指控币安存在利益冲突和非法活动，赵长鹏与美国司法部达成和解协议并辞去 CEO 职务。币安成立于 2017 年，是全球性的加密货币交易所。

美国法院批准命令 币安和赵长鹏将向 CFTC 支付 28.5 亿美元罚款

According to industry estimates, as of the end of November, the sales of VR headsets and AR glasses in the United States have decreased by nearly 40% YoY this year, compared to only a 2% decrease last year. However, the strong sales of Quest 3 have helped boost the market, at least during the holiday season. In the eight weeks leading up to November, VR headset sales in the United States increased by 42% YoY.

Meta Platforms burned billions of dollars in a quarter, while the VR market is still shrinking. Can Quest 3 save the market?

Internal work at Apple indicates that they believe making changes in software, rather than more complex hardware modifications, is enough to bring the watch back to the market. However, analysis suggests that the core of this patent dispute is mainly related to hardware. Industry insiders point out that it is rare for a patent dispute case to develop to the extent of the Apple Watch. Health and safety features are the selling points of the Apple Watch and are the core drivers of this business.

Apple's smartwatch business self-rescue: Engineers racing against time to modify algorithms

英伟达今年业绩表现强劲，股价已经飙升超过 240%，营收环比增长 34%，同比增长 206%。然而，云厂商的资本支出预期却在下滑。虽然市场对英伟达的业绩期望值很高，但从 AI 的应用端来看，支出预期却没有那么乐观。

英伟达会 “缺客”？

美国 10 月核心 PCE 放缓至 3.5%，符合预期。道指涨 0.5%，标普 500 指数涨 0.15%，纳指涨 0.05%。赛富时开盘涨超 9%，公司业绩超市场预期。通用汽车开盘涨逾 1%，预计电池成本将改善 20%。特斯拉开盘涨约 0.5%，副总裁表示生产离不开中国供应链。美联储官员称 “没有考虑” 降息可能性。

美股三大指数高开

Analysis suggests that shipowners' detours have led to an increase in sailing days, which is expected to boost container shipping rates. In addition, air freight is also expected to benefit in the short term from this ship diversion.

Supply chain tension continues as Maersk plans to bypass the Red Sea and detour through Africa

Citigroup pointed out that due to the impact of the global economic headwinds, India's GDP for the fiscal year 2025 may decline from 6.7% in the fiscal year 2024 to 6.2%. They maintain a constructive view on the Indian stock market and expect the NIFTY index to reach a target price of 22,500 points by December 2024, with a forward P/E ratio of 19 times.

Citigroup's Outlook for India in 2024: "Crazy" Stock Market or Continued Performance Depends on This Result

比亚迪第三季度纯电汽车份额追平特斯拉，全球纯电动汽车销量同比增长 29%，中国市场占据 58% 份额。尽管中国市场增长放缓，但中国汽车品牌在海外市场大幅增长。比亚迪纯电动汽车市场份额已追上特斯拉，两者三季度市场份额均为 17%。特斯拉交付量略高于比亚迪，但相差不大。

比亚迪第三季度纯电汽车份额追平特斯拉

黑山上诉法院在网站上表示，下令重审加密货币大亨 Do Kwon。

车企动力电池竞争进入第二阶段，多家企业自研电池开始从电芯层面着手。蔚来发布 150 度超长续航电池包，能量密度达 360Wh/kg。广汽埃安全栈下线 P58 微晶超能电芯，湃电池智能工厂竣工。蜂巢能源发布短刀电池和快充。极氪发布金砖电池。此前还有长安、奇瑞等车企自研电池。自主品牌自研电池热潮再度升温。

车企动力电池竞争，“卷” 向第二阶段

香港特区政府财经事务及库务局局长许正宇今日公布 “新资本投资者入境计划”。根据计划，符合资格申请人在香港投资 3000 万或以上港元，可申请入境香港。其中，投资项目中新设 300 万港元的 “资本投资者入境计划投资组合”，主要为创新科技等有利于香港长远发展的相关项目。

香港公布新资本投资者入境计划：符合资格申请人在香港投资 3000 万或以上港元 可申请入境香港

香港交易所近期首次上市多只美股衍生权证，标志着该交易所在国际化方面迈出重要一步。随着投资者对美股投资需求的增加，香港交易所的美股指数结构性产品成交量也在增长。新上市的衍生权证以 Alphabet、Apple、Tesla 等美国上市公司的股票为标的资产。这一举措有助于满足市场对美股投资的需求。

港交所：多只美股衍生权证在港上市 为逾十年来首批

CircleTech has submitted its fifth application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. How can we tell the story of the "Healthcare-Pharmaceutical-Insurance" closed-loop? | Insights from JZ Research

红海危机对中国石油贸易影响较小，亚洲炼油商受到的影响也不大。胡塞武装袭击船只导致石油和天然气价格上涨，但市场情绪可能逐渐稳定。bp 和挪威国家能源公司宣布暂停通过红海的运输，全球主要集装箱航运公司也做出了相应决定。红海地区运输保险出现波动，许多保险公司正在重新评估前景。红海是重要的石油运输通道，避开红海将导致航程延迟和燃料成本上升。整体而言，红海危机对中国的影响较小。

红海危机，对中国有影响吗？

CLOUD MUSIC turns the tide against adversity.

That pig seller Ding Lei is back again.

12 月 19 日，拼多多紧急向甘肃省慈善联合总会捐款 2000 万元，用于采购棉衣、帐篷等御寒、救灾物资以及积石山县当地的灾后重建工作。

拼多多紧急捐赠 2000 万元，驰援积石山共渡危难

The Christmas holiday is approaching, and the Hong Kong stock market will be closed from December 25th (next Monday) to December 26th (next Tuesday). As for the US stock market, it will be closed all day on December 25th (next Monday). The A-share market will open as usual. As for the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Southbound), the service will be suspended from the afternoon of December 25th (next Monday) to December 26th (next Tuesday), and the service will resume as usual on December 27th (next Wednesday). As for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect (Northbound), the service will be suspended from the afternoon of December 25th (next Monday) to December 26th (next Tuesday), and the service will resume as usual on December 27th (next Wednesday).

Trading Alert: Hong Kong Stock Market Closed for Two Days on December 25th-26th Due to Christmas Holiday.

TikTok 电商为 2024 年定下了 500 亿美金的 GMV 目标，对照今年 200 亿美金的目标数字，目标翻了一倍多。目前 TikTok 电商东南亚 GMV 已经超过 130 亿美金，其中印尼突破 40 亿美金，泰国市场 35 亿美金左右。TikTok Shop 美区 5 月单日销售额 30 多万美金，8 月增长到 500 多万美金一天，10 月分飙升至 1000 万美金，“黑五” 大促期间 11 月 24 日单日 GMV 超 3300 万美元。

TikTok 电商明年 GMV 目标 500 亿美金，东南亚与美国并进

瑞典投资机构 Cevian Capital 以 12 亿欧元入股瑞银，预计未来 3-5 年内瑞银股价将翻倍。Cevian 认为瑞银估值应参考财富管理公司而非传统银行，若能缩小与摩根士丹利的估值差距，瑞银股价可达 50 瑞士法郎。瑞银股价已自 3 月底上涨 38%。此次入股使 Cevian 成为瑞银十大投资者之一。Cevian 认为瑞银财富管理业务有潜力，在美国市场尤为重要。瑞银市净率为 1.2 倍，而摩根士丹利为 2 倍。

全球金融业最大机会！这家机构 12 亿欧元豪赌：未来三到五年，瑞银股价翻倍

腾讯视频号电商业务增长迅速，预计今年的成交总额约为 1000 亿元左右。腾讯财报显示，视频号带来的广告收入是腾讯业绩增长的重要驱动力，第三季度广告收入显著增长。视频号成为了腾讯打造微信生态商业闭环的重要一步，加速了微信生态的商业化。视频号和小游戏等新兴业务为腾讯贡献了高利润率的收入来源。

腾讯视频号电商爬坡

金十数据 12 月 19 日讯，标普全球情报公司的一份分析报告显示，随着市场预期原油和其他能源价格近期的下跌将持续到明年，对能源股的空头押注有所增加。能源板块本季度下跌近 7%，是标普 11 个主要板块中唯一下跌的板块，11 月底的空头利率从 10 月底的 3.43% 上升了 28 个基点，至 3.71%。标普数据显示，11 月底投资者对能源板块的空头兴趣达到了 2022 年 10 月以来的最高水平。此外，标普表示，并非只有石油相关公司的做空意愿上升，能源细分行业（如煤炭和消耗性燃料）的做空意愿都有所上升。

标普全球：投资者对能源股的空头押注有所增加

12 月 19 日下午消息，近日有传闻称，抖音目前在和阿里谈收购饿了么。饿了么方面对此暂无置评。传闻称，“抖音目前在和阿里谈收购饿了么，目前已经到了谈价格阶段，如果谈判顺利，预计春季后就能落地。” 还有消息称，收购价格大概在 70 多亿美元。针对此事，饿了么方面暂未置评。

传抖音洽谈收购饿了么 饿了么方面暂未置评

According to stock analysts at Bank of America, they predict that by the end of next year, the S&P 500 index will reach a record-breaking 5000 points. They believe that the market has already absorbed significant geopolitical shocks and that companies have adapted to higher interest rates and inflation, thus they are bullish on the US stock market. Three stocks that are highly favored by analysts are Wix.com, BIDU-SWR, and TAL Education. Wix.com is a company that provides website design editors, BIDU-SWR is a Chinese internet company, and TAL Education is a Chinese online education company. These companies have shown outstanding performance in their respective fields and are expected to be winners in the coming year.

Bank of America is betting on the US stock market to reach new highs next year, and these three stocks are expected to be winners.

美国银行全球基金经理调查：自 2022 年 1 月以来，投资者对股票的超配评级相对于现金最高。

燃油发动机的时代即将终结了吗？面对近期沸沸扬扬的猜测，宝马斩钉截铁地予以否认，该公司研发主管弗兰克・韦伯将有关公司即将放弃内燃机的说法斥之为 “完全胡说八道”。 此前有消息人士称，鉴于竞争对手纷纷加大对电动传动系统的投资，宝马将不再参与燃油发动机的研发。

宝马回应放弃内燃机：完全胡说八道

据媒体报道，特斯拉首席设计师 Franz von Holzhausen 表示：“特斯拉正在研发感应式充电技术，不需要插上任何东西，只需将车开到车库里的充电板上就开始自动充电了。”

特斯拉官方：正在开发车辆无线充电

市场消息：马士基有大约 20 艘船只在红海停运，将调整非洲南部航线。

马士基有大约 20 艘船只在红海停运

BYD donates RMB 10 million for earthquake relief in northwest China's Gansu. The earthquake has killed 105 people and injured 186 others. BYD Charity Foundation will provide emergency relief, livelihood assistance, rescue team support, and post-disaster reconstruction. Gansu is an inland province with a lower GDP than Shanghai.

BYD donates RMB 10 million for earthquake relief in northwest China's Gansu

甘肃临夏州积石山县发生 6.2 级地震，目前已造成 118 人遇难，182 人受伤。多家企业纷纷捐款捐物资，鸿星尔克捐赠 2000 万物资，新东方及东方甄选捐款 1000 万元。地震救援工作正在有序进行，同时呼吁社会志愿者和车辆不要前往震区，确保救援通道畅通。

积石山地震已致 118 人遇难！多家企业驰援：新东方及东方甄选 1000 万、鸿星尔克 2000 万、比亚迪 1000 万……

一轮最强的汽车降价潮开始了：更凶猛、却更悄无声息。中国车企连带着经销商掀起一轮凶悍的降价潮，降价幅度达到今年之最。华为、奇瑞、赛力斯等车企推出今年最大力度的优惠策略，降价幅度高达 10 万元以上。宝马更是直接降价 10 万元甚至 25 万元，为了增加销量。降价潮的原因是车企面临生存危机和清尾货压力。

一轮最强的汽车降价潮开始了：更凶猛、却更悄无声息

新东方教育科技集团及旗下农产品电商平台东方甄选紧急响应，各捐款 500 万元，合计 1000 万元，用于支援甘肃震区的紧急救援、救灾物资采购、受灾群众生活安置及灾后重建等工作。

新东方及东方甄选捐款 1000 万元 驰援甘肃震区

Wilson believes that if the Federal Reserve starts to pay more attention to maintaining economic growth and reduces concerns about inflation, the chances of a soft landing will increase. He expects this to drive sectors such as small-cap stocks, which have underperformed the broader market this year, to catch up and experience a rally.

Morgan Stanley bearish analyst Wilson: The Fed has given a reason to be bullish on US stocks until 2024

The Bank of Japan continues to implement a negative interest rate policy without releasing any easing signals, leading to a sharp decline in the yen. Although there was no mention of the prospect of interest rate hikes and normalization of monetary policy, speculation about the Bank of Japan eventually raising interest rates still exists. The market is disappointed with this policy decision, as investors had expected the central bank to raise interest rates earlier or send out signals of a rate hike. This move has disappointed investors who were betting on an appreciation of the yen exchange rate, resulting in a depreciation of the yen exchange rate.

The Bank of Japan remains as steady as a rock: it has maintained negative interest rates as scheduled and has not released any signals of easing! As a result, the Japanese yen plummeted.

阿里巴巴迅速启动应急机制，向甘肃积石山县提供物资援助，包括帐篷、棉衣和救灾食品等。阿里巴巴还联合公益基金会、乡村发展基金会等开通筹款通道，为灾区提供支援。

阿里巴巴驰援甘肃积石山 首批 5 万多箱应急物资发出

The escalating tension has led to liquefied natural gas tankers diverting from the Red Sea. Due to the threat of cargo delays caused by the Israel-Hamas war, an increasing number of tankers are choosing to bypass the Red Sea. While European countries like Qatar continue to transport liquefied natural gas through the Red Sea, companies such as BP p.l.c. and the Norwegian National Oil Company are opting to avoid the region. Additionally, the Panama Canal is also restricted due to drought, which may result in more U.S. liquefied natural gas being rerouted through southern Africa. European natural gas prices have risen, but North Asia has ample winter stockpiles.

The escalating tension has caused several liquefied natural gas tankers to change course and leave the Red Sea.

The new energy market is gradually shifting from policy-driven to market-driven.

Shanghai's green license plate policy is tightening again. How big is the impact? | Insight Research

印尼互联网科技公司 GoTo 日内涨幅达 7%，Tokopedia 联合创始人出售股份。

近日，高途 CEO 陈向东在直播中回应高途佳品直播间在线人数从 10 万人跌至 4000 人。陈向东表示，用数据的高低来证明是否成功，容易造成一种假象。当潮水退去，要脚踏实地地做以前做的事；真正的高手是要有平常心的，不要因为别人的评价有坏心情，也不要因为别人的表扬冲昏头脑，我们要成为最好的自己。

高途 CEO 回应在线人数跌超 9 成：真正的高手要有平常心

中信建投发布研究报告，指出在历次美国降息周期中，债券市场表现最好，往往呈现牛市。相比之下，在经济衰退或突发危机时，权益市场表现较差，而黄金则因与美债实际利率负相关而脱颖而出。报告预测美国即将进入新的降息周期。

中信建投：历次美国降息周期中 哪类大类资产表现最好？

上周五，美股 ETF 标普 SPY 创下单日吸金 208 亿美元的新纪录。投资者从科技股获利了结，转向价值股，导致大量资金流入标普 500 成分股。此次资金大举流入的原因包括美联储转鸽态度、指数重新平衡、期权到期以及圣诞节前后的市场上涨趋势。这些因素共同导致了投资者向 SPY 投入更多资金。总的来说，这是一次有关投资动向和市场活动的新闻事件。

上周五单日吸金 208 亿美元！“美股 ETF 标杆” 标普 SPY“从没见过这么多钱”

高盛：红海供应的中断不太可能对原油和液化天然气价格产生重大影响，因为船只改道的机会意味着生产不应直接受到影响。

中金认为，美联储 2024 年转向概率较高！为什么？而在美联储真正转向前，预计 “转向交易” 或将间歇性发生！

解读美联储：明年政策会转向么？

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that it may be appropriate to lower benchmark interest rates next year due to the improvement in inflation this year. The Fed's goal is to bring the inflation rate down to 2%, but they hope to do so in a gradual manner. She has a similar expectation for considering rate cuts starting in 2024 and expects the Fed to lower rates by 75 basis points next year, bringing the inflation rate to around 2.4%. She believes it is too early to speculate on when the rate cuts will happen and is more focused on the developments in 2023. Daly believes that maintaining stable rates will reduce the possibility of excessive tightening, but still believes that a 75 basis point reduction in benchmark rates would be sufficient to provide restraint.