国家发展改革委副秘书长、国民经济综合司司长袁达表示，下一步，国家发展改革委将健全完善评估机制。在总结近两年宏观政策取向一致性评估工作基础上，提出进一步强化评估的要求，明确评估范围，完善评估流程，科学精准评估包括非经济性政策在内的政策影响，更好服务高质量发展大局。强化政策实施过程中的一致性。推动相关部门科学研判形势变化，抓好政策出台窗口期；切实强化预期管理，充分征求意见建议，合理设置政策过渡期，确保各项工作充分衔接、有序推进；加强政策实施过程中潜在风险的分析研判，防止层层加码、“一刀切” 等问题，促进政策最终效果符合党中央决策意图。

国家发改委：将强化政策实施过程中的一致性 加强政策实施过程中潜在风险的分析研判

商业地产危机未过，降温的降息预期又来关键一击。

美联储爆锤降息预期，美股最惨的是地产股

Based on the given news information, the most likely category is: information related to businesses. According to the information, Anthropic is an AI startup company that is developing a feature to enable its AI chatbot, Claude, to analyze images comprehensively. This feature can enhance Anthropic's competitiveness and help it catch up with larger competitors such as OpenAI and Alphabet-C.

"OpenAI's formidable rival" closely follows in the footsteps of OpenAI and intends to embed image analysis capabilities into Claude.

1 月 18 日，华尔街见闻获悉，在速卖通之后，阿里巴巴国际站也将上线半托管业务。华尔街见闻拿到的一份招商资料显示，相比全托管，在阿里国际站的半托管模式下，商家仍然是自己经营店铺，但物流、资金、售后等复杂环节都可以托管给平台。商家只要有现货能力都可以加入，这有望降低商家 “出海” 门槛，吸引更多现货供应链。

阿里巴巴国际站将上线半托管业务，瞄准内贸商家出海

港股午后拉升，恒生指数涨超 1%，恒生科技指数涨 1.17%，新世界发展、百度集团均涨超 3%。

台积电：预计今年第四季度在德国开始建设晶圆厂。

台积电：将于二月举行日本晶圆厂开幕仪式；在美国亚利桑那州，我们与美国政府就激励措施保持密切沟通。

In the last quarter, we achieved a net profit of TWD 238.7 billion, a YoY decrease of 19%, but a MoM growth of 13%, exceeding the expected TWD 224.1 billion.

Taiwan Semiconductor's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with a 6% surge in after-hours trading at one point.

Occidental Petroleum CEO stated that during the second half of the 20th century, the discovered crude oil reserves by oil companies were approximately five times the global demand. However, in recent decades, this ratio has significantly decreased and is currently around 25%.

Occidental Petroleum CEO warns: Global oil shortage expected next year

港股恒大汽车盘中涨超 20.00%，成交额仅为 550 余万港元。

港股恒大汽车盘中涨超 20%

Hong Kong stocks fell below 15,500 points. Charles Li, CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX), said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the Hong Kong stock market is approaching its "capitulation point" due to factors such as rising interest rates and geopolitical conflicts in various regions. This has led to a loss of confidence among investors and created a selling environment. Li stated that China's economic growth is forecasted to be 5%, which is still a considerable growth rate and could contribute an additional $1 trillion to the world's GDP. Li also expressed his pleasure in hearing Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reiterate the encouragement of private enterprise development and welcoming foreign investment. He believes that Hong Kong, in the long run, still holds a favorable position as a bridge between the East and the West. When asked about the lower amount of IPO fundraising in Hong Kong compared to India, Li pointed out that HKEX is expecting 73 IPOs in 2023, which is lower than the 90 IPOs in 2022, but the number is still acceptable. Due to the decline in valuations, Li understands that some companies are considering staying in the private equity market for financing instead of rushing to go public. Li declined to comment on the likelihood of Saudi Aramco, the Saudi Arabian state-owned oil company, listing in Hong Kong, but he did mention that Hong Kong is a suitable place for Middle Eastern companies to go public. Furthermore, Li explained the reason for not renewing his contract, stating that his family resides in the United States, and he needs to consider his personal development.

HKEX 欧冠升: Hong Kong stock market valuation approaches the "surrender point"

台积电 Q4 净利润 2387 亿新台币，市场预期为 2240 亿新台币，前值为 2959 亿新台币。

现货比特币交易所挂牌基金近日在美国正式上市，引起市场高度关注，新加坡金融管理局不允许这类金融产品在新加坡上市及面向散户投资者，因为比特币等加密货币并未列为 ETF 的合格资产。尽管如此，获金管局执照的资本市场中介机构提供海外市场相关投资，须确保充分的风险披露和适当的客户适合性评估。这意味散户仍能透过本地券商，交易在海外上市的现货比特币 ETF。

新加坡金管局：现货比特币 ETF 不能在新加坡上市

Due to the commercial real estate debt crisis and the impact of declining profits, Blackstone's flagship fund recorded its first loss in seven years.

Blackstone flagship fund suffers first loss since inception, with average annualized return of 11% over the years

开年以来，美国股债遭遇双杀，贵金属下跌，金价触及一个月低点。美联储官员放鹰，零售销售数据显示美国经济强劲，削弱 3 月份降息预期，推动美元指数上升。美股三大指数收跌，美债收益率创一个月新高。黄金、白银和铂金均下跌。欧央行官员放鹰，打压 4 月份降息预期，欧元兑美元汇率下跌。市场对美联储 3 月份降息预期遭到多次打击，数据表明经济依然强劲。

开年暴涨！“美元阴霾” 笼罩一切

京东快递小哥福利待遇非常出众，三年收入超百万，近百人达到这一水平。京东提供了包括 “五险一金” 在内的多项福利政策，为员工退休后提供养老金，保障了他们的退休生活。此外，京东还为员工缴纳公积金，最大限度保障员工未来置业计划。公司计划建起员工公寓和配套场所，提供免费住房支持和休闲娱乐设施，成为行业最大的员工福利投入。

京东：近百名快递小哥三年收入超百万！全员 “五险一金”

According to analysis, the latest price trend of Bitcoin indicates that so far, Bitcoin ETF has not made a profound impression on the market for highly anticipated products.

In the first three days of its listing, the Bitcoin spot ETF raised less than 900 million US dollars, which can hardly be considered a success.

* 摩通升拼多多目标价至 195 美元 今年内地互联网业首选

* 摩通升拼多多目标价至 195 美元  今年内地互联网业首选

萨尔瓦多总统的比特币投资浮亏约 8%。现货比特币 ETF 获批或将带来超 700 亿美元资本流入。GBTC 转换为比特币现货 ETF 后，摩根大通预计将流出 27 亿美元资金。超过 1 年未活跃的比特币流通供应量比例达 70.35%，创历史新高。灰度 GBTC 负溢价率进一步收窄至 9.78%。Coinbase 的储备增加约 1.2 万枚 BTC，Binance 的储备减少 5000BTC。新加坡将于 2024 年起禁止保证金杠杆交易。韩国将于 2024 年邀请 10 万公民测试 CBDC。美 CFTC 拟继续追查违规加密交易所，接触美国客户是特权而非权力。SBF 与洪都拉斯前总统被关押在一起，向警卫提供加密投资建议。

每日数字货币动态汇总

The Japanese bond market, which has seen an increase in interest rate expectations, requires "veterans who have been in the market since the 1980s".

High-paying recruitment for traders over 50 years old! Japanese financial institutions urgently seek "experience in trading during market prosperity and interest rate cycles"

美股 “一月效应” 是指美国股市在 1 月份的涨幅往往高于其他月份的现象。这种影响在过去几十年来曾经存在，但在 2000 年之后逐渐消退。投资者对 2024 年是否会出现 “一月效应” 持怀疑态度。该现象的起源可以追溯到 1942 年，由投资银行家西德尼·瓦赫特尔发现。然而，近年来随着大型科技股的狂热，该现象在一些指数上已经不再明显。

美股 “一月效应” 是什么？今年还会出现吗？

AlphaGeometry was able to answer 25 out of 30 Olympiad questions, almost reaching the highest level of human performance.

Close to the gold medal level of high school mathematics competition! Google DeepMind's AI makes a new breakthrough, "a crucial step towards building AGI"

* 汇丰研究降舜宇目标价至 89.7 元 智能手机光学规格升级推动定价及毛利复苏

* 汇丰研究降舜宇目标价至 89.7 元  智能手机光学规格升级推动定价及毛利复苏

市场消息：谷歌 CEO 在备忘录中告诉员工，可能会进一步裁员。

* 汇丰研究上调内地今明两年电动车销售增长预测 偏好比亚迪

* 汇丰研究上调内地今明两年电动车销售增长预测  偏好比亚迪

* 摩通降汇控目标价至 81 元 稳健 ROTE 及强劲现金回报支持估值

* 摩通降汇控目标价至 81 元  稳健 ROTE 及强劲现金回报支持估值

Real estate stocks became the biggest drag on the S&P 500 index on Wednesday as traders withdrew their bets on a Fed rate cut. The real estate market is bound to be impacted, especially office REITs. Real estate stocks are unlikely to recover stability for most of 2023, and investors are selling off stocks. The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) index is heading for its worst week since November last year.

US Real Estate Sector Plunges, Traders Reassess March Rate Cut Bets

Taiwan Semiconductor is set to announce its full-year performance for the fourth quarter on Thursday, with analysts predicting a 23% decline in Q4 profits. Analysts believe that the rebound in demand will drive growth this year. Taiwan Semiconductor had a strong performance in 2022, mainly driven by increased orders from customers such as Apple and NVIDIA. Although global semiconductor demand started to weaken in the second half of 2022, analysts expect an increase in demand for replenishing inventory by smartphone and computer manufacturers. Analysts at Fubon Securities express concerns about the outlook for Taiwan Semiconductor in the first quarter, but believe that demand from Apple will remain stable. Analysts at KGI Securities forecast a year-on-year revenue growth of around 20%, primarily driven by the recovery in demand for 5G and high-performance computing applications.

Earnings Report Preview | Taiwan Semiconductor Q4 Profit May Plummet 23%, Key Focus on Demand Outlook

恒生指数，恒生科技指数快速拉升，信义光能涨近 5%，百度涨超 3.5%，阿里巴巴、美团、海底捞均涨超 2.5%。

* 高盛：游戏股偏好快手、腾讯及网易

恒生指数盘中翻红，此前跌超 0.6%。

据彭博，苹果将于周四开始销售没有血氧检测功能的手表。

Tianfeng Securities has released a research report, stating that the XR industry revolution is imminent, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the impact of Apple VisionPro on the industry. The report points out that VisionPro has outstanding highlights in hardware, design, and applications, and has unprecedented product power and innovation in the head-mounted display industry. It is expected that VisionPro will lead users into the era of spatial computing and expand the boundaries of information input and output. The report also analyzes the new industry trends that VisionPro may lead, such as MicroOLED 4K screens becoming mainstream in high-end headsets.

TF Securities: The moment of XR revolution has arrived. We will continue to pay close attention to the launch of Apple VisionPro and its catalytic effect on the industry.

芝加哥近期的极寒天气对电动车产生了负面影响，导致公共充电站出现长队和无法充电的情况。特斯拉车主表示电量无法增加，不得不放弃车辆。专家建议在寒冷天气中，驾驶员需要预热电池才能快速充电。这一情况暴露出电动车在极寒天气下的脆弱性。

芝加哥极寒考验电动汽车，充电站变身 “特斯拉坟场”

"木头姐"凯茜·伍德的 Ark Investment 通过购买自身发行的比特币现货 ETF，吸引了机构投资者的注资。此举是在美国 SEC 对比特币 ETF 进行一次性批准后引发的激烈竞争中的行动。该公司还出售了其在比特币期货 ETF 中的头寸，为购买 ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF 让路。这一举动有助于 ARKB 在竞争激烈的比特币现货 ETF 市场中占据优势。

“木头姐” 旗下 Ark 斥巨资自购比特币 ETF! 以真金白银吸引机构注资

周三，MSCI Inc.新兴市场股票指数一度下跌 2.3%，创去年 8 月 2 日以来最大盘中跌幅，年初至今累计跌幅达到 6% 以上。韩国、印度股市双双跌逾 2%。

美联储降息预期再定价，新兴市场遭遇今年 “最惨烈的一天”

旧能源在股市中反攻，神华市值超过宁德时代 800 亿，被一些投资者视为旧能源战胜新能源。新能源标的大面积超跌，宁德时代跌 24.8%，比亚迪跌 22.6%，隆基绿能跌 45.1%。旧能源将保持强势，大型国有煤矿如神华是煤电行业的底牌。神华以业绩稳定、现金分红慷慨著称，但估值较高。

旧能源的一次反攻

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is cautious about the future of the US economy in the next two years, believing that a series of financial and geopolitical risks will impact the economy. He is particularly concerned about the situation in Ukraine, terrorist activities in Israel and the Red Sea region, and the impact of quantitative tightening on the economy. Despite the US economy exceeding expectations in recent years, Dimon still advocates for caution. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon is also worried about the continuously rising level of US debt. The leaders of JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have both issued warnings about the future economic situation.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Warns: Exercise Caution in the Next Two Years as Strong Risks Will Impact the US Economy

Expectations of interest rate cuts suffered another blow, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling for three consecutive days and Chinese concept stocks falling for three consecutive days. TuSimple has decided to delist. The U.S. Department of Justice is expected to file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple as early as March, and the court has ordered the suspension of sales of blood oxygen monitoring watches. YouTube is laying off employees, and German company Bayer has announced a large-scale layoff plan. The parent company of Zbird, Amer Sports, will set the IPO price at the end of the month.

Breakfast | The US market has seen consecutive declines in stocks and bonds, with Apple facing two "blows" in a single day.

本届达沃斯年会上，香港财政司司长陈茂波率领代表团亮相，向全球介绍香港的最新发展情况和机遇，同时分享内地的经济状况和发展方向。在与新浪财经对话中，陈茂波表示，此次造访达沃斯使他注意到许多中东商界人士对于分散投资的需求。这些商界人士对亚洲、中国内地以及香港地区的投资表现出浓厚兴趣，这些新兴市场可能成为新的资金来源。陈茂波强调，针对对香港了解不多的中东商界人士，他特别邀请他们来港考察，以促进更多的投资和合作。“我们吸引这些新资金、新的投资人来内地、来香港是非常有希望的，而且未来也可以提高我们的市场流动性。纵然前阵子，受外围种种原因（影响），香港市场承受了一定的压力，但是这毕竟是有周期的，我对我们股票市场非常有信心。” 陈茂波表示。

对话香港财政司长陈茂波：我对于香港股市非常有信心

After the financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023 were announced, Alcoa's revenue decreased by 3% YoY, and the adjusted EBITDA was lower than expected. The Q4 revenue was $2.595 billion, with a net loss of $150 million and a loss per share of $0.84. The adjusted loss per share was $0.56, while analysts expected $0.84. The adjusted EBITDA was $89 million, lower than the analyst's expectation of $110.7 million. In terms of full-year performance, the revenue was $10.551 billion, a decrease of 15% YoY, with a net loss of $651 million and a loss per share of $3.65. Looking ahead, it is expected that the aluminum production in 2024 will be between 9.8 million and 10 million tons. The aluminum division is expected to produce 2.2 million to 2.3 million tons.

Alcoa's Q4 revenue declined by 3% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA fell short of expectations.

Bond traders have abandoned their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, pushing up the implied rate on futures contracts to a level consistent with only about a 50% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds target rate in the first quarter. Traders expect the Fed to start reversing its aggressive tightening policy this year, but anticipate a total of only about 140 basis points in rate cuts, below the recent peak of nearly 175 basis points. These changes are related to economic data and revised forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Barclays.

Market no longer overly optimistic, traders reduce bets on Fed rate cut in March

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the third consecutive day, hitting a four-week low. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed down less than 1%, with the real estate sector leading the decline, dropping nearly 2%. Tesla shares fell 2%, while chip stocks underperformed the market, initially dropping more than 2% before narrowing their losses by half. Intel fell more than 2%, while Nvidia and Microsoft dropped from their all-time highs. Chinese tech stocks fell more than 2% for the third consecutive day, with XPeng and JD.com dropping nearly 5%. European stocks fell more than 1%, marking the largest decline in nearly three months. After the release of retail data, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds continued to reach a one-month high, while the yield on 2-year bonds rose more than 10 basis points for consecutive days. The US dollar index reached a one-month high for two consecutive days. UK CPI accelerated, causing the yield on 2-year UK bonds to rise more than 20 basis points, and the pound sterling to rise during intraday trading. The Japanese yen hit a seven-week low, while offshore renminbi fell more than 200 points and fell below 7.23 for the first time in two months. After initially falling more than 2%, US oil rebounded and approached a one-week high, while Brent crude fell from its one-week high. Gold fell more than 1% for consecutive days, marking the largest two-week decline and a five-week low. London zinc fell more than 3%, while London copper hit a two-month low.

Economic data also dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to consecutive declines in US stocks and bonds. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell more than 1% during trading, while Chinese concept stocks underperformed the broader market.

特斯拉（TSLA）收跌 1.98%，报 215.55 美元，逼近 2023 年 11 月 10 日收盘位 214.65 美元。

The next-generation flagship phone Galaxy S24 is the first smartphone to be equipped with the large model Gemini Pro and the powerful computer vision technology Imagen 2 on the Alphabet-C cloud platform Vertex AI. S24 also supports the on-device model Gemini Nano. S24 features the new search function Circle to Search, introduced by Alphabet-C for Android phones. Users can simply draw circles or lines on images or videos to search without switching apps. It supports multiple searches for text and images, providing answers to questions about the content circled in the image.

Samsung Electronics takes the first shot in mobile AI in 2024! Empowered by the Alphabet-C model, Galaxy S24 debuts with a brand new search feature - simply draw a circle to search.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently openly demanded more equity from the board of directors on social media, stating that he hopes to hold more than 25% of the shares, otherwise there is a risk of being sidelined. Some media outlets have expressed doubts about the shareholding percentage proposed by Tesla, as if the 2018 compensation plan is implemented, his shareholding will already exceed 20%, which would have a significant impact on accounting. Moreover, if Tesla's shareholding reaches 25%, it will exacerbate the company's governance challenges.

Does Tesla really need Tesla's 25% voting rights? Media: Not necessary

美国股市三大指数全线低开，美国 12 月零售销售环比增长 0.6%，创三个月最大增幅，打压了美联储降息预期。苹果股价下跌 1.2%，特斯拉下调德国市场 Model Y 车型价格，波音股价暂时反弹，福特汽车遭瑞银下调评级。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议。

美股三大指数全线低开，美国零售销售走强打压美联储降息预期

资产管理公司 VanEck：将关闭和清算 VanEck 比特币策略 ETF，2024 年 1 月 30 日收市后将不再在上市交易所交易，随后将退市。

消息人士透露，Coinbase 将在本周三的法庭听证会上辩称，由于通过加密货币交易所交易的加密货币与证券不同，美国证券监管机构应该撤销对其的诉讼。此次听证会是 Coinbase 与美国证券交易委员会之间备受关注的法律纠纷的下一个重大节点。由于可能会明确 SEC 对加密货币行业的管辖权，这场诉讼预计会对数字资产造成重大影响。

SEC 诉 Coinbase 将开庭审理：SEC 对加密货币管辖权成焦点

比特币现货 ETF 在头三天的交易中出现资金外流，抵消了部分资金流入。分析师认为，这可能是因为投资者转向费用更低的新 ETF。然而，虽然比特币 ETF 获批，但比特币价格下跌并未给市场留下深刻印象。