Bond traders have abandoned their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, pushing up the implied rate on futures contracts to a level consistent with only about a 50% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds target rate in the first quarter. Traders expect the Fed to start reversing its aggressive tightening policy this year, but anticipate a total of only about 140 basis points in rate cuts, below the recent peak of nearly 175 basis points. These changes are related to economic data and revised forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Barclays.

Market no longer overly optimistic, traders reduce bets on Fed rate cut in March

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the third consecutive day, hitting a four-week low. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed down less than 1%, with the real estate sector leading the decline, dropping nearly 2%. Tesla shares fell 2%, while chip stocks underperformed the market, initially dropping more than 2% before narrowing their losses by half. Intel fell more than 2%, while Nvidia and Microsoft dropped from their all-time highs. Chinese tech stocks fell more than 2% for the third consecutive day, with XPeng and JD.com dropping nearly 5%. European stocks fell more than 1%, marking the largest decline in nearly three months. After the release of retail data, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds continued to reach a one-month high, while the yield on 2-year bonds rose more than 10 basis points for consecutive days. The US dollar index reached a one-month high for two consecutive days. UK CPI accelerated, causing the yield on 2-year UK bonds to rise more than 20 basis points, and the pound sterling to rise during intraday trading. The Japanese yen hit a seven-week low, while offshore renminbi fell more than 200 points and fell below 7.23 for the first time in two months. After initially falling more than 2%, US oil rebounded and approached a one-week high, while Brent crude fell from its one-week high. Gold fell more than 1% for consecutive days, marking the largest two-week decline and a five-week low. London zinc fell more than 3%, while London copper hit a two-month low.

Economic data also dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to consecutive declines in US stocks and bonds. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell more than 1% during trading, while Chinese concept stocks underperformed the broader market.

特斯拉（TSLA）收跌 1.98%，报 215.55 美元，逼近 2023 年 11 月 10 日收盘位 214.65 美元。

The next-generation flagship phone Galaxy S24 is the first smartphone to be equipped with the large model Gemini Pro and the powerful computer vision technology Imagen 2 on the Alphabet-C cloud platform Vertex AI. S24 also supports the on-device model Gemini Nano. S24 features the new search function Circle to Search, introduced by Alphabet-C for Android phones. Users can simply draw circles or lines on images or videos to search without switching apps. It supports multiple searches for text and images, providing answers to questions about the content circled in the image.

Samsung Electronics takes the first shot in mobile AI in 2024! Empowered by the Alphabet-C model, Galaxy S24 debuts with a brand new search feature - simply draw a circle to search.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently openly demanded more equity from the board of directors on social media, stating that he hopes to hold more than 25% of the shares, otherwise there is a risk of being sidelined. Some media outlets have expressed doubts about the shareholding percentage proposed by Tesla, as if the 2018 compensation plan is implemented, his shareholding will already exceed 20%, which would have a significant impact on accounting. Moreover, if Tesla's shareholding reaches 25%, it will exacerbate the company's governance challenges.

Does Tesla really need Tesla's 25% voting rights? Media: Not necessary

美国股市三大指数全线低开，美国 12 月零售销售环比增长 0.6%，创三个月最大增幅，打压了美联储降息预期。苹果股价下跌 1.2%，特斯拉下调德国市场 Model Y 车型价格，波音股价暂时反弹，福特汽车遭瑞银下调评级。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议。

美股三大指数全线低开，美国零售销售走强打压美联储降息预期

资产管理公司 VanEck：将关闭和清算 VanEck 比特币策略 ETF，2024 年 1 月 30 日收市后将不再在上市交易所交易，随后将退市。

消息人士透露，Coinbase 将在本周三的法庭听证会上辩称，由于通过加密货币交易所交易的加密货币与证券不同，美国证券监管机构应该撤销对其的诉讼。此次听证会是 Coinbase 与美国证券交易委员会之间备受关注的法律纠纷的下一个重大节点。由于可能会明确 SEC 对加密货币行业的管辖权，这场诉讼预计会对数字资产造成重大影响。

SEC 诉 Coinbase 将开庭审理：SEC 对加密货币管辖权成焦点

比特币现货 ETF 在头三天的交易中出现资金外流，抵消了部分资金流入。分析师认为，这可能是因为投资者转向费用更低的新 ETF。然而，虽然比特币 ETF 获批，但比特币价格下跌并未给市场留下深刻印象。

比特币现货 ETF 大规模资金外流抵消流入，投资者对这种新资产持谨慎态度

ChaoShan real estate tycoon takes on another life-or-death challenge

摩根大通 CEO：个人建议是不要涉足比特币。这是我最后一次谈论比特币。

市场消息：前土耳其央行行长 Uysal 加入加密货币交易所 CoinTR。

Based on historical experience, the Federal Reserve tends to loosen its policies about six months after the last interest rate hike. As it is expected to remain unchanged in January this year, the duration of this pause will be longer than before. In addition, with inflation continuing to slow down, it has prompted traders to be overly aggressive in pricing in rate cuts.

Societe Generale Analyst: Betting on a Fed rate cut in March is "chasing after shadows"

12 月中国银河专业交易策略公开赛发布了 12 月最新榜单，尽管市场整体低迷，但参赛私募表现亮眼。股票多头策略组平均收益 13.98%，相对价值组平均收益 13.18%，CTA 策略组平均收益 10.02%，固定收益策略组平均收益 4.39%。综合产品规模、收益率、最大回撤、夏普比率等因素，二季度排名前三的产品是华银共同、广东诚鸿朝盈、翊丰兴盛进取，收益分别为 40.30%、24.02%、20.74%。指数增强组排名前三的产品是纽达投资守正、顺义成量化精选、创奥投资奥凯志鑫，收益分别为 2.10%、0.93%、0.87%。

12 月赚钱效应低迷，中国银河专业交易策略公开赛逆势火热

Elevate intelligence and continue to dominate in the second half.

Wang Chuanfu angrily invests 100 billion

中国的豪车市场正在迎来一位新的入侵者，比亚迪旗下的仰望 U8 成为富豪们的新玩具，取代了奔驰大 G 和路虎揽胜等进口豪车。仰望 U8 的起价高达 109.8 万元，销量火爆，一个月卖出 1593 辆，手上还有 3 万台订单。由于供不应求，甚至出现了加价转卖订单的情况。比亚迪还推出了仰望 U7 旗舰轿车，引起了广泛关注。中国豪车市场的竞争正在激烈重构，新能源汽车的发展也在改变消费者的品牌认知。

富豪狂买比亚迪百万豪车

Tech blogger reviews have stated that Vision Pro is the best among all similar devices they have tried in their professional careers, but there are still issues with comfort, complicated wearing procedures, and limited daily usage.

Exclusive details revealed! Can't wear Apple Vision Pro for half an hour?

大和证券发布研究报告，重申腾讯控股 “买入” 评级，目标价 405 港元。报告指出，腾讯视频号的电商 GMV 同比增长近 3 倍，预计今年将推动网上广告业务和科技服务收费以中十位数的幅度增长。同时，报告预计腾讯游戏收入将同比增长 9.5%，但也指出《和平精英》的疲弱将对收入产生一定影响。此外，报告还提到了游戏《元梦之星》的收入延期。总体而言，腾讯今年将重点关注视频号的变现和广告推荐引擎的改进。

大和：重申腾讯控股 “买入” 评级 目标价 405 港元

京东采销在直播中声称拼多多屏蔽了其 IP，导致无法查看商品价格，进而无法比价。京东采销喊话拼多多停止屏蔽 IP，恳请直接比价。同时鼓励消费者将比价内容上传至京东采销直播间，承诺降价。截至目前，京东和拼多多尚未回应此事。

京东采销直播喊话拼多多：不要搞屏蔽，请直接比价

1 月 17 日，拼多多旗下跨境电商 TEMU 正式上线南非站点。这也自 2022 年年 9 月上线以来，TEMU 进入的第 49 个国家，已快速覆盖亚洲、欧洲、北美、南美、大洋洲及南非等。

TEMU 上线南非站点

Sporting goods manufacturer Amer Sports, known for its Wilson tennis rackets, plans to conduct its first initial public offering (IPO) in the United States by the end of January, with a financing amount of $1 billion. The company aims to raise $1 billion, valuing the company at $10 billion. Amer Sports owns major brands such as Arc'teryx, Salomon, Atomic, and Peak Performance. The IPO will publicly disclose its financial statements and begin trading at the end of this month. This IPO is expected to be one of the largest in the world.

Amer Sports, the parent company of the ancestral bird, will set the IPO price at the end of the month, aiming to raise $1 billion in financing.

美团股价时隔四年再度跌破发行价，报价 68.35 港元，下跌 7.51%。分析师认为，公司正处于估值模式转换期，市场不再看好无边界扩张，而更注重公司整体盈利水平。公司被低估的原因是影响盈利能力的业务。

美团时隔 4 年再度跌破发行价

UBS Group AG has become the latest bank to raise its expectations for US stocks, raising its forecast for the S&P 500 index in 2024 to 5150 points. Previously, UBS Group AG had projected the S&P 500 index to be at 4850 points in the coming year. Due to the Federal Reserve's relaxed monetary policy and favorable economic conditions, UBS Group AG strategists believe there is upside risk. However, the US stock market had a shaky start in 2024, with investors concerned about market volatility. Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller stated that if inflation does not accelerate again, the Fed may cut interest rates this year. This statement led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a decline in US stocks.

5150 points! Wall Street's optimism is rising, with UBS Group AG joining the ranks of raising expectations for US stocks.

印度股市在 2023 年狂飙，市值突破 4 万亿美元，投行高盛预测大选后将有更多外资流入，摩根大通则看好印度市场。高盛称印度股票持有比例较低，但预计莫迪将赢得第三个任期，维持 “政策连续性”，解决估值过高问题。

投行接连看多印度！高盛：大选后将有更多海外资金流入

瑞银分析师表示，尽管美国证交会批准了首批直接投资比特币的交易所交易基金，但比特币的基本面仍然薄弱，加密货币在现实世界中的应用仍然有限。投资组合中配置比特币会导致波动性增加，而且人们对比特币的高能耗和可持续性存在担忧。

瑞银：比特币的基本面依然疲弱

Tesla has reduced the prices of its Model Y cars in Germany following similar price cuts in China. The Model Y Long Range and Performance models were discounted by 9% and 8.1%, respectively, while the rear-wheel drive models saw a 4.2% price reduction. This comes as Tesla announced a production suspension at its Berlin factory and Germany's electric vehicle subsidy program ended prematurely.

Tesla cuts Model Y prices in Germany after China price cuts

香港房屋局局长何永贤表示，目前香港楼市情况稳固，虽然 11 月楼价有轻微下跌，但并未出现断崖式下跌。需求仍然旺盛，香港政府推出的居屋项目也获得超额认购。何永贤强调，香港政府会整体动态观察不同因素作决策，希望楼市保持健康平稳发展。减辣措施公布后，12 月份香港楼宇成交量连续两个月上升。香港经民联的林健锋表示，香港政府担心全面减辣会令楼价飙升的预期不会发生。市民期待香港政府尽快全面撤辣，恢复楼市和整体经济活力。

香港房屋局何永贤：目前香港楼市情况稳固 看不到断崖式下跌

恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至 5%，蔚来、小鹏汽车跌近 11%。

Citigroup predicts that electric vehicle sales in China will decrease by 25% month-on-month in January, and will further decline by 50% in February. However, there is hope for a 60% recovery in March. Sales in the first quarter of this year are expected to decline by 40%. According to a report by Morgan Stanley, sales in the Chinese passenger vehicle market have remained relatively stable in the past week, with a 1% decrease in sales of new energy vehicles. Sales performance among different automakers will vary.

Understanding the Market | Why are Hong Kong-listed automotive stocks experiencing a widening decline? Wall Street giants have a pessimistic outlook.

民宿巨头 Airbnb 斥资 2 亿美元收购了一家只有 12 人规模的 AI 初创企业 GamePlanner.AI，这是 Airbnb 上市后的首次收购。该收购将补充 Airbnb 现有的一系列 AI 技术，包括大语言模型、计算机视觉模型和机器学习等等。Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky 强调 AI 将比其他技术更迅速地改变世界。GamePlanner.AI 由 Adam Cheyer 和 Siamak Hodjat 联合创立，专注于为企业提供智能决策支持。

Airbnb 斥资 2 亿，收购了家只有 12 个人的 AI 初创

美股期货走低，标普 500 指数期货现跌 0.3%，纳指期货跌 0.4%。

日本央行有望在 4 月会议上解除负利率，并取消 7 月会议前的预期。经济学家预计今年春季工资将持平或超过去年，而结束负利率后新政策利率水平预测为 0% 左右或 0-0.1% 范围，加息预期中位数为 0.5%。此外，日本央行可能将 24 年度核心 CPI 预测下调至 2.5% 左右，主要原因是油价下跌。根据调查结果和知情人士透露，这些预测和调整将对日本金融和经济产生重要影响。

日本紧缩路线：4 月结束负利率，加息终点 0.5%

市场消息：谷歌支付与印度国家支付公司签署谅解备忘录，以扩大统一支付接口 的全球扩张。

奥特曼：未来货币将是算力和能源，AI 技术取决于能源突破。

科指午后跌幅扩至 4.3%，美团、商汤、蔚来和小鹏跌幅近 6% 至 10%。恒指午后跌幅扩大至逾 500 点，创逾 14 个月低点。欧盟传闻将对华电动车推出临时关税，小鹏和蔚来跌幅扩大至近一成。其他科指成份股和蓝筹股均下跌。商汤和万国数据创上市新低，联想、小米、快手、华虹和哔哩哔哩等公司股价也出现下跌。网易、阿里、腾讯、百度、京东和美团跌幅近 3% 至 6%。

科指午後跌幅扩至 4.3%  美团、商汤、蔚来及小鹏挫近 6%-10%

* 恒指午後跌幅扩至逾 500 点或 3.1%

BlackRock strategists say that the US stock market seems to be in for another volatile year, as declining inflation could "rebound like a roller coaster" and disrupt investors' expectations of an economic "soft landing".

BlackRock: US stock prices are too expensive, beware of inflation rebound

港股解禁日频繁大跌，市场承载能力有限。限售股解禁导致投资者抛售超过市场承受能力。新上市公司流通股票比例较小，股价不能反映真实情况。解禁后的股价大幅下跌，理智的投资者应该回避。

港股解禁日频繁大跌，市场承载能力有限

根据《界面新闻》报道，字节跳动加速将 TikTok 员工迁至海外，员工可获得较高薪资包和租房补贴。如果不接受转岗，TikTok 在内地的工作岗位将大幅缩减。该举措旨在确保 TikTok 在全球合规营运。

据报字节跳动加速将 TikTok 员工迁至海外

1 月 17 日晚 8 点，天猫年货节正式开卖。苹果官方今年也加入了天猫年货节活动，零点起，天猫 Apple Store 官方旗舰店上线 “迎新春限时优惠” 活动，全线 Apple 产品官方直降，达到苹果官方渠道的全网底价。据悉，相比官网的 500 元优惠，这次苹果天猫官方旗舰店的 iPhone 折扣力度更大。在 1 月 17 日晚 8 点-31 日期间，天猫 Apple Store 旗舰店 iPhone 15 全系列券后优惠 1000 元，到手 4999 元起，比苹果官网便宜 500 元，还可叠加使用 12 期分期免息，每天仅需 13 元左右。

苹果天猫官方旗舰店全线直降，iPhone15 系列 4999 元起

BC 科技集团早盘再跌超 15%，开年以来股价已腰斩。截至发稿，跌 13.33%，报 5.46 港元，成交额 2070.5 万港元。消息面上，上周三，美国证券交易委员会批准了首批美国比特币 ETF。不过，自比特币现货 ETF 上市以来，比特币曾一度短暂触及 4.9 万美元，但随后一路走低，创下去年 12 月中旬以来的最大跌幅。市场人士表示，美国新设比特币 ETF 热潮消退。据悉，BC 科技集团公布，于 1 月 12 日，合共 1.876 亿股新股份已获配发及发行予认购人 BGX Group Holding Limited，认购价为每股认购股份 3.80 港元，净筹约 7.1 亿港元。此外，BC 科技集团近期表示，拟更名为&amp;quot;OSL 集团有限公司&amp;quot;。

港股异动 | BC 科技集团再跌超 15% 开年来股价已腰斩 比特币 ETF 热潮消退

中东地缘政治紧张局势持续升温，导致环球供应链受到影响。由于苏伊士运河航运中断，船只需要绕道南非前往目的地，导致货物交付严重延误。这些问题可能引发新一轮高通胀，迫使央行加息，但目前市场需求疲弱，经济增长放缓，因此通胀上升的可能性较低。此外，疫情期间的消费模式已回复均衡，市场需求正在转向服务业。红海中断情况持续时间将决定新的供应链问题是否会推高通胀。

施罗德投资：苏伊士运河航运中断 是否会影响降息预期？

中金公司公告变更高管，资产管理部负责人胡长生离任，由孙男接任。孙男是该公司的多面手，现任战略发展部、综合办公室、监事会办公室和资产管理部负责人。他拥有清华大学经济学学士和管理学硕士学位，自 2020 年起担任董事会秘书。此次变更为中金公司的资产管理业务带来新的领导层。

中金公司公告变更高管，分管资管 “老总” 离任，“多面手” 孙男接棒

香港恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至 4%。

The US stock market's IPO is expected to rebound significantly, with over 80 companies lining up to list on the NASDAQ Composite Index. The CEO of the NASDAQ Composite Index stated that there are more than 80 companies worldwide preparing to go public on the NASDAQ Composite Index market, and this year is expected to be a busy one. The NASDAQ Composite Index has been in a slump in recent years, but the CEO stated that the stock trading market is still the foundation of the company. Financial report data shows that solutions account for 75% of the NASDAQ Composite Index's revenue, while market trading accounts for 25%. It is expected that the US stock market's IPO will heat up significantly in 2024, and investors need to be prepared. The information of NASDAQ Composite Index mainly belongs to the listing-related information of enterprises.

US IPO market expected to rebound significantly! Over 80 companies in line to list on the NASDAQ Composite Index.

萨尔瓦多总统的比特币投资浮亏约 8%。现货比特币 ETF 获批或将带来超 700 亿美元资本流入。GBTC 转换为比特币现货 ETF 后，摩根大通预计将流出 27 亿美元资金。超过 1 年未活跃的比特币流通供应量比例达 70.35%，创历史新高。灰度 GBTC 负溢价率进一步收窄至 9.78%。Coinbase 的储备增加约 1.2 万枚 BTC，Binance 的储备减少 5000BTC。新加坡将于 2024 年起禁止保证金杠杆交易。韩国将于 2024 年邀请 10 万公民测试 CBDC。美 CFTC 拟继续追查违规加密交易所，接触美国客户是特权而非权力。SBF 与洪都拉斯前总统被关押在一起，向警卫提供加密投资建议。

每日数字货币动态汇总

华尔街见闻 1 月 17 日获悉，蔚来将对现有车型进行配置更新。2024 款车型将于 3 月上旬陆续开启交付，而 2023 款车型提供优惠。据悉， 蔚来全系车型均配备 4 颗 Orin 芯片。 1 月下旬，蔚来 Banyan 系统新版本将迎来 40 余项功能升级，智能底盘、智能座舱、主动安全、全域辅助驾驶的性能与体验将进一步提升。

蔚来 2024 款车型将于 3 月开启交付

港股科网股持续大幅下挫，美团跌超 5%，汽车之家跌超 4%，阿里巴巴、京东、腾讯控股、微博均跌超 3%。

各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降、同比有涨有降；各线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降、同比降幅扩大。

12 月 70 城房价：各线城市新房房价环比下降，一线城市二手房跌幅扩大，成都领涨

中国 1 至 12 月社会消费品零售总额同比 7.2%，预期 7.3%，前值 7.2%。