The semiconductor sector's market capitalization has surged by approximately $3.8 trillion in the past six weeks. AI computing demand is spreading from GPUs to memory chips and traditional CPUs, driving a boom cycle across all chip categories. The leveraged ETF SOXL has accumulated gains of over 1200%, attracting a rush of retail investors. Unlike the Dotcom Bubble, this rally is supported by strong earnings, with Micron Tech trading at a P/E ratio of only 8.9x

Chip Stock Frenzy Continues to Accelerate

Q1 macroeconomic data exceeded expectations, with GDP growing 5% year-on-year. Industrial production and trade remained robust, while the PPI turned positive for the first time. The profit margin of Chinese industrial enterprises rose to 15.5%. Despite strong industrial activity, consumer demand remained cautious, with total retail sales in March growing only 1.7% year-on-year. Policy support for domestic demand will be needed in the future to achieve a balanced economic recovery. We remain optimistic about A-shares, driven by upward revisions to earnings expectations, with the Materials and Information Technology sectors leading gains

HSBC Wealth Insights: Q1 Macroeconomic Data Beats Expectations; Positioning for Industrial Resilience and Partial Price Improvement | China Viewpoint

Driven by the AI wave, Asian stock markets are experiencing a new round of gains. Morgan Stanley predicts that fixed asset investment in Asia will rise from $11 trillion in 2025 to $16 trillion in 2030. The core drivers cover three main themes: AI infrastructure, energy security, and defense spending. China holds significant advantages in the localization of AI chips, robot exports, and new energy sectors

Attracting Global Capital: Asia's New "Super Cycle" Is Unfolding

BofA strategist Hartnett points out that the materials sector currently accounts for only 2% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, with valuations at a 30-year low. Multiple drivers include geopolitical resource competition, AI capital expenditure, defense expansion, and the U.S. housing shortage. He proposes a "Bubble Barbell Strategy," recommending simultaneous long positions in AI chips and oversold cyclical assets, with the materials sector being the optimal pairing

BofA's Hartnett: Materials Sector to Be the Next "Bull Market Darling"

US corporate earnings in the first quarter posted their best performance in 20 years, with S&P 500 constituents reporting a 27% year-over-year profit growth, more than double analysts' expectations. The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants saw profits surge by 57%. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 recorded positive growth for the first time in four years. Several institutions promptly raised their full-year earnings forecasts

Far Exceeding Expectations! The Just-Concluded Earnings Season Saw US Stocks Perform "Stunningly Strong"

Deutsche Bank AG believes that the unipolar structure, free trade, and low-inflation conditions that drove US dollar reserve hegemony have reversed. The US dollar's share of global central bank reserves has fallen from over 60% to 40%, while gold's share has nearly doubled in the past four years to 30%. If emerging markets raise their target gold allocation to 40%, the gold price could rise to $8,000 within five years. Gold may signal that a new monetary order independent of the US dollar system is brewing

The Return of History: Deutsche Bank on Gold, the US Dollar, and the Future of Money

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned at a Stanford Hoover Institution conference that widespread market expectations for AI-driven productivity could themselves push up interest rates and trigger stagflation if the technological dividends fail to materialize. He pointed out that when expectations are fully priced in, businesses and households may overdraft future consumption and investment, leading to an overheated economy

Senior Fed Official: If AI Succeeds, Rates Will Rise; If It Fails, Stagflation Will Follow

Several major financial events are scheduled for next week (May 11–17), with global attention focused on China-US relations. CPI data from both countries will be released; US April CPI is expected to reach 3.8% due to the impact of Middle East tensions. CICC predicts China's PPI will rise due to diverging external demand. Fed Chair Powell's term will end, and a confirmation vote for Kevin Warsh's nomination is expected. In corporate earnings, tech giants such as Tencent, Alibaba, and JD.com will report results, with market focus on AI and semiconductor recovery

Key Events Next Week: Global Focus on China-US Relations

OpenAI and Anthropic are replicating Palantir's core model and building competing products, causing Palantir's commercial contract booking growth to plummet from 137% to 45%. The company is essentially an AI 'refinery' rather than a model developer, with market debate centering on whether it is merely an 'expensive wrapper'

As OpenAI and Anthropic Enter the Fray to 'Steal Business', Palantir's True Rivals Have Arrived

Apple may end TSMC's exclusive foundry status. Reports indicate that Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement on chip foundry services. This is a strategic move by Apple to alleviate AI capacity anxiety, and serves as the strongest endorsement for Intel Foundry's comeback. The competitive landscape of global advanced process nodes is undergoing a historic reshaping

Intel Foundry Secures Key Endorsement: Industrial Shift Behind Apple's Order

The industry is shifting its focus toward scenarios and deliverables

Former Xiaomi Executive Enters Embodied AI Sector; Xiaoyu Robotics Secures Hundreds of Millions in Series B+ Funding

Accumulated losses exceeded RMB 1 billion over the past three years

Less than six years after its establishment, Xinde Semiconductor rushes for a Hong Kong listing

Interest-Rate Cuts face another setback! Dragged down by the Middle East situation and sticky inflation, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to implement an Interest rate cut no earlier than December 2026. Goldman Sachs warns that subsequent easing requires a dual approach of "falling inflation + weakening employment," significantly raising the threshold, and the market needs to prepare for a "protracted war" of high interest rates

Goldman Sachs Expects Earliest Fed Interest Rate Cut in December, Delaying Previous Forecast by One Quarter

BYD Accelerates Expansion in the B2B Market

The door to Fed rate cuts is closing rapidly! Buffeted by stabilizing employment and resurging inflation, half of Wall Street institutions have canceled their expectations for rate cuts this year, with futures markets even hinting at pricing in rate hikes. Facing a comprehensive rise in hawkish sentiment within the Fed, incoming Chair Warsh, despite his mission for lower rates, may find his rate-cut agenda stalled

Fed Rate Cut Rationale Dwindling; Warsh Faces Tough Challenge Upon Taking Over

Wall Street's AI capital is undergoing a "changing of the guard": hot money is flowing out of NVIDIA and into Intel, AMD, and Micron. The explosion of AI agents and memory shortages have ignited a new hardware rally. However, undercurrents swirl beneath the feast, with analysts warning that the extreme surge in semiconductors rivals the "internet bubble," urging high alert for correction risks

Shift in AI Infrastructure Investment Trends: AMD, Intel, and Micron Surge as NVIDIA's Halo Fades

Gold prices have risen for four consecutive days, regaining momentum and breaking through key moving averages. Benefiting from a weaker US dollar, continued central bank gold purchases, and cooling rate hike expectations, gold is seeing a rebound opportunity. However, resistance at the $4,800 level remains, and the overhang of inflation and rate hikes has not dissipated. Amidst the key battle between bulls and bears, can this "gold rush" continue?

Gold Returns Above Key Trend Line: Can Bulls Regain Control?

Amazon is predicted to outperform the S&P 500 this year, driven by accelerating growth in its cloud services (AWS), which saw a 28% revenue increase in Q1. The company is also gaining traction in the chip market, with its chip business projected to reach a $50 billion run-rate. Additionally, Amazon is well-positioned in the AI sector, enhancing its e-commerce platform with robotics and AI efficiencies. With a forward P/E of 32, Amazon's stock is attractively valued compared to competitors, suggesting significant growth potential ahead.

Prediction: Amazon Will Outperform the S&P 500

Affected by the near-disruption of cargo traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, China's crude oil imports in April fell approximately 20% year-on-year to 38.47 million tons; natural gas imports dropped about 13% year-on-year; and refined oil product exports plunged roughly 38% to their lowest level in nearly a decade. In contrast, soybean imports surged nearly 40% year-on-year to 8.48 million tons, boosted by seasonal supplies from both the United States and Brazil

China's Crude Oil Imports Fall to Three-Year Low in April, Soybean Imports Surge Nearly 40% Year-on-Year, Aluminum Exports Hit 17-Month High

Slowing growth and declining average prices

What Are the Prospects for Hisense's Increased Bet on "Bestie Screens"?

The fervor for momentum trading in US stocks continues to climb, with the S&P 500 hitting record highs and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 11% in a single week. However, underlying structural concerns are emerging: gains are concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, market breadth is deteriorating, and defensive factors remain under pressure. Barclays warns that momentum has reached extreme levels, while UBS cautions that AI winner stocks are "very fragile" in the short term, recommending downside protection

Panic Buying! "Momentum Trading" Sweeps US Market, "Historical Extremes" Draw Attention

From January to April, China's exports in US dollar terms increased by 14.5% year-on-year, imports rose by 23.6% year-on-year, and the trade surplus amounted to USD 347.7 billion

Intel's stock price surged by 13.96%, with a market value exceeding $600 billion, due to a preliminary agreement with Apple to produce chips for them. Since April, Intel's stock price has tripled, making it the 19th largest company by market value globally. Apple ships over 200 million iPhones annually, and any supply chain adjustments will impact market expectations. Apple is seeking to diversify its supply chain and may use Intel's 2-nanometer process to produce M-series chips

Intel surged 13.96%, with a market value exceeding $600 billion, possibly to manufacture chips for Apple

Former CTO Murati accused Altman of lying about safety approvals and creating managerial chaos; former board members described Altman as “habitually dishonest.” Altman’s camp countered that Musk is “ignorant of AI and emotionally unstable,” alleging he once flew into a rage and attempted physical violence during a meeting. The trial also revealed that OpenAI sacrificed safety principles to secure billions in investment from Microsoft, rendering its original non-profit mission nominal at best. Next week, Altman will testify in person, setting the stage for the final showdown

Relationship Completely Ruptured! OpenAI Courtroom Debate Features Personal Attacks: Musk “Ignorant of AI and Volatile,” Altman “Unethical and Hypocritical”

Hohn, founder of the renowned hedge fund TCI, slashed his Microsoft stake from 10% to 1%, ending a nearly decade-long holding. The core reason is that the rapid development of AI poses a structural threat to Microsoft's Office and Azure businesses, compounded by a year-to-date stock price decline of over 12%. Meanwhile, TCI increased its Alphabet holdings to 5%, making it the fund's largest technology position

Frantic Sale of $8 Billion in Microsoft Holdings! Renowned Tech Hedge Fund Clears Decade-Long Position

Tesla announced a recall of 173 Cybertrucks due to structural defects in the braking components. The recall involves models from 2024 to 2026 equipped with 18-inch steel wheels. The defect may cause cracks to develop in the brake disc bolt holes during driving, thereby increasing the risk of collisions and injuries

Tesla recalls 173 Cybertrucks

Federal Reserve custody data shows that as of the week ending May 6, the balance of US Treasuries held in custody for foreign official accounts decreased by $8.7 billion to $2.73 trillion. Furthermore, since late April, the USD/JPY exchange rate has decoupled from the trend of the 10-Year Treasury Yield, coinciding with the timing of Japan's suspected intervention in the foreign exchange market. As the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, continued selling by Japan would push up Treasury yields

Did Japan Sell US Treasuries to Defend the Yen?

Global stocks pulled back due to direct US-Iran clashes, with the MSCI World Index slipping 0.3% and Asian stocks falling 1.1%; nevertheless, Asian stocks are poised to record a fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning streak since January this year, while S&P 500 futures also edged up 0.2%. Brent crude rose about 1% to around $101 per barrel, and spot gold gained 0.6% to $4,714.64 per ounce

Strait of Hormuz Conflict Reignites, Brent Crude Returns to $100 Mark, Gold Edges Higher, AI Trade Supports Asian Stock Rally

Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," wrote that the April non-farm employment report highlighted the stability of the labor market, with inflation data set to determine the Federal Reserve's next policy direction. He also pointed out that inflation is currently rising slowly due to the impact of tariffs and the war in Iran

"Fed Whisperer": April Non-Farm Employment Data Robust, Fed Policy Focus Should Shift to Inflation

At the close of New York trading on Friday (May 8), the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note fell by 3.19 basis points to 4.3541%, marking a cumulative decline of 1.57 basis points for the week. The yield continued its downward trend, trading within a range of 4.4624%-4.3140%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 2.66 basis points to 3.8846%. It spiked to an intraday high of 3.9262% upon the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment report at 20:30 Beijing time, before quickly reversing into losses. For the week, it accumulated a gain of 0.71 basis points, with overall trading occurring in the 3.8220%-3.9913% range

Federal Reserve: U.S. bank deposits stood at $19.113 trillion last week, compared with $19.080 trillion in the previous week

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index preliminarily closed down 0.4%, posting a cumulative gain of 1.6% for the week. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, CSI Solar preliminarily closed up 13.8%, Jinko Solar rose 5.3%, Xiaomi and LI AUTO-W gained over 2%, PDD fell 2.9%, and New Oriental EDU & Tech dropped 5.1%

Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management: There is no inflation threat in the US April Non-Farm Employment report, which should help quell some of the debate over potential rate hikes. She emphasized that the Federal Reserve is fully capable of waiting

Tesla and Amazon are considered likely to lead the industrial sector, even though they are typically associated with electric vehicles and e-commerce. Tesla's industrial business, including batteries and energy storage systems, has performed exceptionally well, with revenue growth of 80%. Amazon's logistics network is viewed as a massive industrial machine, expected to reduce fulfillment costs through robotics technology. Despite the S&P 500 Industrial Select Index lagging, industrial capital expenditures are on the rise. Analysts believe that the industrial attributes of these two stocks have not yet been fully priced in

Tesla and Amazon are expected to lead the industrial sector

Apple is in preliminary talks with Intel to consider reintroducing Intel chips in some Mac products. This marks the first time Apple has considered returning to Intel since it switched to self-developed chips in 2020. Apple has shown interest in Intel's latest Core Ultra 9 processor, which may be tested in high-end Mac products. This move aims to meet the demands of professional users for memory and multi-GPU support. Market reactions indicate that Apple's stock price rose by about 0.5%, while Intel's stock price increased by about 2%. Analysts believe the symbolic significance of this deal outweighs its actual financial impact

What does it mean for both companies if Apple becomes an Intel customer again?

The team led by Michael Hartnett at Bank of America points out that U.S. stocks and gold are heading toward a rare fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, with the S&P 500's annualized gain expected to reach 20% and gold potentially hitting 30%. Recently, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs, while gold's year-to-date high approached $5,600 per ounce, just a step away from the 30% gain target of $5,631.6. The team believes market breadth is improving, with small-cap stocks, emerging markets, and commodities reaching a "long-term bullish inflection point."

BofA's Hartnett: U.S. Stock Strength Is Historically Rare; Gold Poised for 30% Gain This Year

"New Bond King" Gundlach is preparing for the extremely low-probability scenario of a unilateral US debt restructuring, having swapped high-coupon Treasuries for the lowest-coupon instruments in his flagship fund. He fears that in the event of a severe economic recession, the government could slash coupons from 4% to 1%. White House Economic Advisor Hassett firmly denied this, stating that a default is "impossible in a million years." While the market-implied probability of default is currently below 1%, concerns are mounting over the $31 trillion debt burden

New Bond King: Preparing for US "Debt Restructuring"; Hassett: US Debt Default "Impossible in a Million Years"

The U.S. added 115,000 jobs in April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. The robust employment data has dampened market expectations for a Fed Rate Cut, shifting the policy focus to combating high inflation. Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's desire for rate cuts contradicts current economic data; if confirmed by the Senate, he may find little support for easing policies. The market now assigns a 74.1% probability to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in December, lowering the likelihood of a cut. Divergence exists within the Federal Reserve regarding the direction of interest rates, with some officials expressing concern over inflation and hinting at potential rate hikes

Key Takeaways from the U.S. April Non-Farm Employment Report: Strong Data May Complicate Waller's Plan to Push for Interest Rate Cuts

SQ (Trans): From app co. to AI co.

SQ, the 'US Alipay': growth via credit, profits via layoffs?

Meta is fully advancing its artificial intelligence strategic transformation, leading to increased pressure on employees. Multiple teams have been reorganized or eliminated due to priority adjustments, hiring has been frozen, and thousands of employees have been reassigned to AI projects. Employees complain about the surge in workload, and performance evaluation standards are also biased towards AI skills. Changes in the compensation structure have caused dissatisfaction, with the employee turnover rate in the AI department rising to 18%. Meta executives emphasize that transformation inevitably comes with growing pains, and employees face uncertainty. Analysis points out that Meta's predicament reflects the contradiction between AI strategy and employee well-being

The New York Times: Meta's embrace of AI leaves employees in distress

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) was reported at 3.60% on the previous trading day (May 7, the eve of the nonfarm payrolls release), compared to 3.61% the day before. The effective federal funds rate on the previous trading day was reported at 3.63%, compared to 3.64% the day before

Amid Labour's crushing defeat in local elections and the Reform Party's sudden rise, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer clearly stated he would "never resign," successfully stabilizing market sentiment for the time being. UK gilt yields fell in response, and the pound rebounded, as investors believed the worst-case scenario of "Starmer stepping down and a shift toward fiscal easing" had been temporarily ruled out. However, the risks of political fragmentation and loosening fiscal discipline have not been substantially alleviated

Starmer Vows "Never to Resign": UK Bonds Rebound as Market Bets "Worst-Case Scenario" Has Passed

US Non-Farm Employment surged by 115,000 in April, far exceeding the expected 65,000, marking the strongest consecutive growth in nearly a year. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.3%, but wage growth slowed to 3.6% year-on-year, alleviating some inflation concerns. Although the broader unemployment rate rose to 8.2% and the labor force participation rate declined, the resilience of the overall data has bought the Federal Reserve room to wait and see in response to inflationary pressures triggered by the war with Iran, further reducing the urgency for short-term rate cuts

First Consecutive Two-Month Growth in a Year! US Non-Farm Employment Adds 115,000 Jobs in April, Far Exceeding Expectations; Unemployment Rate Holds at 4.3%

美国劳动力市场在经历波动后显现企稳信号。4 月非农就业人数增加 11.5 万，超出预期的 6.5 万，失业率维持在 4.3%。薪资增速放缓，平均时薪环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 3.6%，均低于预期。尽管薪资增速温和，但实际收入因工时增加得到支撑。整体数据指向劳动力市场温和降温，但并未崩溃。

非农就业人数超预期但薪资放缓 市场打消年内加息疑虑

US nonfarm payrolls for April significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a slight open high at gap for the three major US stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.38%, the S&P 500 Index gained 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.54%

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood is optimistic about SpaceX and Tesla, believing that the demand for private space assets and autonomous driving technology is strong. She pointed out that investors are highly interested in SpaceX's upcoming IPO, which is expected to be valued at $75 billion, but demand may exceed the available shares. Wood also emphasized that Tesla's vertically integrated structure in the autonomous taxi industry gives it a competitive advantage, expecting the cost of rides to drop to about 25 cents per mile, lower than current ride-hailing prices

Cathie Wood is optimistic about the demand for SpaceX and Tesla's autonomous taxi services

U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated he would accompany Trump on a visit to China if invited. TSMC's April revenue rose 17.5% year-over-year. SoftBank and OpenAI lowered their margin loan target to $6 billion. The Nintendo Switch 2 price increased by $50 in the U.S., leading to lowered sales expectations. Combined free cash flow for Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2014. Coinbase's Q1 revenue plunged 31%, turning to a loss. The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.19%, and the Hang Seng Index closed down 0.87%

Global Headlines You Need to Know Before U.S. Stock Market Opens on Friday

U.S. Non-Farm Employment increased by 115,000 in April, while the Unemployment Rate remained stable, indicating a stabilizing labor market. Despite weak demand, layoff activity remained low, and tax cut policies boosted consumption and investment. These data provide the Federal Reserve with room to keep interest rates unchanged, while attention must be paid to inflation risks arising from the war in Iran