CICC research report pointed out that the U.S. non-farm payroll data in June fell short of expectations, indicating a cooling momentum in job growth, but the overall labor market remains in moderate expansion. Based on this, CICC maintains its judgment that the Federal Reserve will neither raise nor lower interest rates this year. In the medium term, if the economic aggregate demand driven by AI investment continues to expand, the possibility of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate hikes next year cannot be ruled out

CICC: Non-farm payroll cooling supports the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates or lower interest rates

历经地缘冲突与利率剧震，华尔街以罕见一致的乐观姿态迎接下半年。然而好消息或已尽数定价——策略师预测标普年末仅余约 3% 上行空间。核心争议不在涨跌方向，而在 AI 红利能否从芯片硬件向电网、工业等实体经济真正扩散。

华尔街对下半年 “乐观得很一致”：相信市场会 “克服一切”

Palantir CEO Alex Karp publicly criticized OpenAI and Anthropic, calling their token-based billing model "insane." He argued that enterprise customers are effectively paying a "wealth tax," thereby surrendering their core competitive advantages. Palantir simultaneously released a nine-point "AI Sovereignty" manifesto, warning that losing control over model weights means losing control over an institution's destiny

Palantir CEO Slams Large Model Giants: Their Business Model Has Major Flaws, Imposing a "Tax" on Enterprises While Ignoring Enterprise Risk Management

Meta's Chief AI Officer Alexander Wang stated in an internal meeting that the company's upcoming AI model "Watermelon" has performance that matches OpenAI's flagship model GPT-5.5. This model's computing power has increased by an order of magnitude compared to its predecessor, marking significant progress for Meta in narrowing the gap with its competitors

Meta's superintelligent executive claims to have caught up with OpenAI in the AI model competition

单独来看，考虑卖 AI 算力的 Meta 和自研芯片的 Anthropic 采取的是不同路径，但放在一起，却共同指向一个变化——AI 公司开始思考如何提高已有基础设施的投资回报，而不仅仅是继续扩大资本开支。市场开始认真讨论，如果 AI 产业开始更加注重资本效率，而非单纯扩大投入，这一轮资本开支超级周期是否会进入新的阶段。

芯片股两连跌！AI“鬼故事” 不断：Meta、Anthropic 相继传出新动作，市场开始重估 AI 交易？

Liquidity and leverage indicators for US stocks have reached extreme levels. Funds in money market funds largely stem from transfers out of low-interest bank deposits, while the S&P 500's share of total market capitalization is approaching its 2000 peak. Meanwhile, Margin Debt has surged 53% year-on-year; similar growth rates peaked in 2000, 2007, and 2021, with major market tops occurring within a year thereafter

Liquidity and Leverage in the US Stock Market

White House economic advisor Hassett publicly criticized Powell for continuing to serve at the U.S. central bank, stating that this move hinders the Trump administration’s appointment of new board members. Among the Federal Reserve Board members, Trump has successfully appointed only one member since the start of his second term, namely the new Chair Warsh. Hassett stated yesterday that a majority within the Federal Reserve are motivated to vote against Trump

Hassett Criticizes Powell: Staying on at the Fed Is Highly Unusual, Hindering Trump’s Appointment of New Nominees

Two funds under Blue Owl faced redemption requests totaling over $4.7 billion in Q2, equivalent to 18.8% and 38.1% of their respective shares, triggering the 5% redemption cap and closing exit channels for the second consecutive quarter. Blue Owl stated that Q2 redemption requests were primarily from repeat applicants, with limited new participants

Wave of Private Credit Redemptions Persists! Blue Owl Faces Massive Redemptions Again, Restricts Withdrawals for Two Consecutive Quarters

韩国将于 7 月 6 日起实施韩元全天候交易，是数十年来最大幅度的外汇管控松绑，也是争取 MSCI 发达市场升级的核心举措。然而改革时机微妙，韩元已跌至十七年低位，年内累计跌幅逾 6%。韩国经济结构正从资本净流入转向净输出，国民养老金加大海外配置，外资持续撤离韩股，24 小时交易或将加剧外汇短期波动。

韩元开启 24 小时交易：汇率承压下的金融突围与流动性大考

美国 6 月非农就业数据显著放缓，缓解了市场对美联储近期加息的担忧，道指上涨 1.1% 创新高。然而，因对 AI 投资回报的质疑加剧，半导体再度遭抛售，芯片股两日累计跌 11%。Marvell 跌 9.84%、Arm 跌 6.58%、美光跌 5.49%、AMD 跌 4.26%、博通跌 2.41%，英伟达相对抗跌但仍收跌 1.39%，台积电 ADR 跌 2.27%。半导体设备股跌幅更深，Teradyne 重挫约 13.6%、科磊下跌约 11.5%。存储厂商闪迪暴跌超 14%，自阶段高点已回落约 27%。

早餐 | 芯片股两日累计跌 11%，闪迪暴跌超 14%

美国 6 月非农就业数据显著放缓，缓解加息担忧，美股道指创新高但半导体板块因 AI 回报质疑遭抛售。美元下跌，黄金、比特币大涨，原油跌破战前水平。亚洲市场创业板大跌，贵金属逆势拉升。

早餐 FM-Radio | 2026 年 7 月 3 日

US markets are closed today. Key focus will be on the final June Services and Composite PMI releases from multiple countries, including Japan, China, India, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK. Additionally, Vietnam will release data on imports, exports, trade balance, and Q2 GDP. ECB President Lagarde and other central bank officials will deliver speeches in France. Domestic refined oil prices are set to enter a new adjustment window

Reminder: Key Focus for Intraday Trading (All times in Beijing Time)

On Thursday (July 2), the US Stock Market Rate-Cut Winners Index fell 0.02% to close at 98.42 points. After the release of the US Non-Farm Employment report, the index opened higher but then declined, exhibiting an overall W-shaped trend. For the week, it accumulated a decline of 1.58%

US President Donald Trump: I am implementing the same tariffs, but the situation has become more severe

In late New York trading on July 2, non-USD currencies generally rose following the release of the US Non-Farm Employment report. The euro, pound, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar all gained against the US dollar, with the euro hitting a new daily high. Commodity currencies such as the South African rand and Mexican peso also performed strongly. The US dollar fell against the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Hungarian forint. The Indian rupee and Turkish lira ended slightly lower before the report's release

Non-USD Currencies Generally Rise on Non-Farm Payrolls Day

At the New York close on Thursday (July 2) (04:59 Beijing time on Friday), the offshore renminbi (CNH) was quoted at 6.7888 against the U.S. dollar, up 59 pips from the New York close on Wednesday. It traded within a range of 6.7966-6.7836 during the day, rebounding significantly upon the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment report

At the close of New York trading on July 2, spot gold rose more than 2% to $4,123.21 per ounce, briefly approaching $4,140 during the session, driven by the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment report. COMEX gold futures also gained 1.22%. Additionally, spot silver and COMEX silver futures rose 3.04% and 2.87% respectively, while COMEX copper futures edged up 0.18%. Precious and base metals generally trended higher

Spot Gold Rises Over 2% on Non-Farm Employment Day

"The Big Short" Michael Burry: Initiated a short position on Micron Tech at $1,051.87 on Wednesday. Risk Warning and Disclaimer: The market involves risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this content are the sole responsibility of the investor

"The Big Short" Michael Burry: Initiated a short position on Micron Tech at $1,051.87 on Wednesday

Emerging market currencies strengthened against the US dollar amid weak US employment data and a softer greenback. The data reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October, boosting risk assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose as much as 0.3%, before paring some gains ahead of the close

Emerging Market FX Markets Boosted by Weak US Jobs Data and Softer Dollar

Tesla announced that the Model Y three-row six-seat long-wheelbase version (Model YL) is now available for consumers in the United States and Puerto Rico. This move aims to expand the market for its best-selling model and attract buyers who need more space. Previously, Musk had anticipated that this model would not be produced in the U.S. until the end of 2026, and the early release follows the company's announcement of better-than-expected second-quarter delivery data

Tesla announces that the three-row six-seat version of the Model Y is now available for sale to customers in the United States

According to The Information, Tesla has notified employees that starting from July 6, the weekly AI expenditure limit will be set at $200. Any expenses exceeding this limit will require approval, and this restriction does not include the xAI product beta testing. This move aims to control the high AI computing power consumption by engineers

Tesla sets the weekly AI spending limit for employees at $200

The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index initially closed down 1.8%. Performance among popular Chinese stocks was mixed, with Baidu, NIO, and XPeng leading the declines, while Meituan, Xiaomi, and BYD posted gains. In related ETFs, CQQQ fell 5.2% and KWEB dropped 0.6%

特斯拉二季度交付 48 万辆，同比大增 25%，创历史最强二季度纪录，远超分析师预期（不足 40 万辆），但股价随即暴跌 8.2%，创近一年最大单日跌幅。分析师表示，买预期卖事实再次演绎，同时指出 AI 与自动驾驶是特斯拉目前估值的核心变量，汽车交付数据被淡化。

特斯拉 Q2 交付大超预期创历史最强，股价为何重挫 8% 创一年最大跌幅？

A Tesla in Texas lost control and crashed into a residential home, resulting in the death of a woman. The driver has been taken into custody by the police and charged with manslaughter. The specific cause of the accident (whether it was due to autopilot or operator error) is still pending technical assessment. This incident has once again raised public concern regarding the safety of Tesla vehicles and the accountability of its autopilot system

Tesla crashes into a Texas home, resulting in the death of a woman; driver charged with manslaughter

The U.S. added only 57,000 jobs in June, half the forecast, while unemployment fell to 4.2% due to declining labor participation. This weak data reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, increasing market expectations for steady rates in September. Consequently, the Dow rose slightly, though major indices remained mixed as investors weigh persistent inflation against a softening labor market.

The U.S. Economy Added an Underwhelming 57,000 Jobs in June. Here's the Takeaway for Investors.

Meta Platforms states that AI agent development has not "accelerated as we expected" over the past four months. Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer: The market involves risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investors bear full responsibility for their own investment decisions

Meta Platforms states that AI agent development has not "accelerated as we expected" over the past four months

Meta quietly launched the AI social application Pocket, allowing users to generate interactive "gizmo" mini-games through text prompts. The application is based on technology acquired from Atma Sciences and aims to enhance user engagement through interactive content, currently available only in select regions

Meta quietly launched the AI social application Pocket, focusing on interactive mini-games

The United Launch Alliance used the Atlas V rocket to send 29 Leo satellites into space for Amazon. This move aims to pave the way for Amazon's broadband service launch later this year, challenging SpaceX's Starlink network. Currently, Amazon has deployed over 390 satellites, completing the launch tasks required for initial service, and will gradually switch to the Vulcan rocket for the remaining launches

Amazon's latest batch of satellites launched, paving the way for internet services this year and challenging Starlink

华尔街评论指出，美联储主席沃什上任后的首份非农就业报告表现温和，缓解了市场对经济过热及通胀加剧的担忧。纽约 50 Park Investments CEO Adam Sarhan 认为，该报告减轻了美联储短期加息的压力，令投资者松了一口气，期货市场的上涨也印证了这一积极情绪。

华尔街点评沃什出任美联储主席以来首份非农就业报告

Tesla's second-quarter delivery exceeded expectations, but the stock price still fell by 7.3%. Analysts pointed out that investors were disappointed due to a lack of progress in AI and new vehicle models. Truist raised its target price to $430, emphasizing that developments in AI such as FSD are more important for long-term value; other institutions believe that strong exports support sales, but the energy storage business did not meet expectations

Strong quarterly sales fail to boost Tesla's stock price as analysts await more progress in AI

On July 2, German government bond yields fluctuated in response to U.S. non-farm payroll data. The 10-year German bond yield rose throughout the day to 2.904%, but plunged upon the data release, giving back its gains; the 2-year yield fell 1.2 basis points to 2.5%; and the 30-year yield rose 3.8 basis points to 3.489%. The 2/10-year yield spread widened to +40.211 basis points

German 2-Year Bond Yield Falls by Over 1 Basis Point on Non-Farm Payrolls Day, While 30-Year German Bond Yield Rises by Approximately 4 Basis Points

Anthropic 启动自研 AI 芯片计划并与三星洽谈制造合作，引发美股半导体板块大跌。受此消息及疲软非农数据影响，纳斯达克 100 指数跌超 1%，费城半导体指数跌 4.3%。闪迪、西部数据等个股显著下跌，欧洲芯片股亦普遍承压。

Anthropic 自研 AI 芯片计划引发美股半导体大跌！闪迪大跌 12%，纳指 100 转跌超 1%

Japan has announced a national growth strategy worth approximately $2.3 trillion, aiming to establish autonomous capabilities through "Sovereign AI." The plan involves deploying tens of millions of AI robots across 18 industries by 2040 and developing domestic multimodal foundation models. The Noetra consortium, comprising SoftBank Group Corp., NEC, and others, is responsible for R&D. The government will provide up to JPY 1 trillion in funding over the next five years, with disbursements tied to annual milestone assessments

Domestic Models + Tens of Millions of Robots! Japan Unveils "Sovereign AI" Strategy, Betting $2.3 Trillion on the Future

Tesla's delivery and production volumes in the second quarter far exceeded Wall Street expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34%. Despite the strong data, the stock price still fell by 7%. The company is trying to rebound from two consecutive years of declining sales, previously affected by boycotts and the cancellation of tax credits. Positive factors include the Iran war driving up oil prices, prompting European buyers to turn to electric vehicles, but the ceasefire agreement has caused oil prices to retreat

Tesla's second-quarter delivery volume far exceeded expectations, yet the stock price still fell by 7%

Meta's stock price surged 9%, with Wall Street optimistic about its cloud computing strategy, but it is expected that this low-margin business will drag down the company's overall profitability

Meta is making a big push into cloud computing, and Wall Street needs to prepare for a decline in company profit margins

Microsoft announced a $2.5 billion investment to establish a new operational department, Microsoft Frontier Company, aimed at accelerating the implementation of enterprise AI. This department will deploy 6,000 experts to work on-site with clients to deploy large-scale AI systems, with Rodrigo Kede Lima serving as president. This move marks Microsoft's extension from being an infrastructure provider to an implementation service provider, in response to fierce competition from rivals like AWS in the enterprise AI market

Microsoft invests $2.5 billion to establish a new department to enhance enterprise AI implementation services

HSBC has doubled its target price for Intel to $200, giving it a "Buy" rating, the highest on Wall Street. Analyst Frank Lee is optimistic about its foundry business and the growth potential of server CPUs, expecting profits to be driven by this in 2026-2027. As a result of this positive news, Intel's stock price rose 1.8% on Thursday, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 250%

Intel rises as HSBC doubles its target price to $200

Anthropic is in discussions with Samsung regarding a partnership for manufacturing custom AI chips and has initiated in-house R&D efforts, aiming to emulate OpenAI by gaining greater control over high computing system costs

Report: Anthropic in Talks with Samsung for Custom AI Chips

The final month-on-month figure for U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation in May was 1.4%, compared with a forecast of 1.3% and an initial reading of 1.3%

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) was reported at 3.66% on the previous trading day (July 1, the day before the release of the Non-Farm Employment report), compared to 3.68% the day before. The effective federal funds rate on the previous trading day was reported at 3.63%, unchanged from 3.63% the day before

Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson recommends a tactical short position on USD/JPY, with a target of 155.80 and a stop-loss at 163.20. Reasons include a macro environment favorable to Japanese intervention, crowded long positions, and signals from interactions between US and Japanese officials. The strategist believes the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July is extremely low, and expects the US dollar to strengthen by year-end due to interest rate differentials and growth prospects

Wells Fargo Strategist: Rising Intervention Risk, Recommends Tactical Short on USD/JPY

Tesla expects a year-on-year delivery growth of 3%-5% in the second quarter, primarily driven by a 57% rebound in sales in the European market. Analysts anticipate quarterly deliveries of approximately 403,000 vehicles, an increase of over 12% quarter-on-quarter. The recovery in Europe reverses previous sluggishness, while China is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%, and North America is projected to decline by 21% due to the expiration of tax credits. Additionally, the market is paying attention to Tesla's substantial investments in AI and rumors of a merger with SpaceX

Tesla expects a 3% increase in deliveries in the second quarter, with analysts estimating quarterly deliveries at 396,466 vehicles

市场对美联储加息的押注明显收缩，加息时点预期从此前的 10 月推迟至 12 月。

美国 6 月非农新增就业 5.7 万人，仅为市场预期的一半，失业率意外降至一年来最低水平

Meta plans to build its own cloud computing business, directly competing in the AI computing power market, raising concerns about the prospects of "new cloud" companies like CoreWeave. As a result, the prices of the €2 billion euro-denominated high-yield bonds and the $1.25 billion dollar bonds issued by CoreWeave last month fell for two consecutive days, reaching approximately 96.8 and 97.3, respectively. Analysts point out that the business model in this field is novel, risks are concentrated, and long-term profit margins are unclear, having yet to undergo a real test

The "New Cloud" model faces new challenges! Meta "transforms from benefactor to competitor" as CoreWeave bonds fall for two consecutive days, raising concerns

市场对 AI 算力供给过剩的担忧升温，Meta 出售算力资源的消息引发全球芯片股集体抛售。电子、SK 海力士等韩国半导体巨头股价自 6 月高点已下跌 21% 至 30%。作为出口 “压舱石”，半导体占韩国出口超两成，且两大巨头为 Kospi 指数前两大权重股。一旦 AI 周期降温，韩国资本市场与出口利润均将承压。

AI 产能过剩疑虑引爆芯片股抛售潮，韩国 “国民财富” 面临重估

Tesla's Q2 deliveries reached 480,126 vehicles, a 25% year-over-year increase, significantly beating expectations. Model 3/Y deliveries totaled 467,762 units, up 25% year over year. Production stood at 451,758 vehicles, a 10% year-over-year increase. The results have boosted market confidence and alleviated concerns about slowing demand