Repost: Key points from Powell's speech

* Interest rate cuts: It will take longer than expected to gain confidence in cutting rates, and restrictive policies will be maintained for as long as necessary—implication: rate cuts will come later than expected.

* Rate hikes: Whether rates have peaked will depend on data, and the Fed's next move is unlikely to be a hike—implication: a rate hike at the next meeting is ruled out, but it doesn’t completely deny the possibility of hikes this year.

* Inflation: There has been no further progress in fighting inflation; we are certainly not satisfied with 3% inflation, and it will take longer to gain confidence in inflation declining—implication: the inflation situation isn’t optimistic, and the current focus remains on fighting inflation.

* Employment: The labor market remains relatively tight but has become more balanced than before; unexpected weakness in the labor market could justify rate cuts—implication: since no labor market weakness is seen yet, it’s not yet time for rate cuts.

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