Less than 24 hours until the halving! Will Bitcoin rise?

According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, cryptocurrency investors are eagerly anticipating the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. This event occurs approximately every four years, and the halving is expected to take place early Saturday morning Greenwich Mean Time. Chris Gannatti, Global Research Director of WisdomTree, an asset management company that sells Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), stated that the Bitcoin halving is "one of the most significant events in the cryptocurrency field this year."

The halving is about to reduce mining rewards, aiming to control the supply of Bitcoin and provide stability. For some cryptocurrency enthusiasts, the halving will highlight the value of Bitcoin as an increasingly scarce commodity. However, skeptics believe that this is just a technical change hyped by speculators to boost cryptocurrency prices.

In 2023, Bitcoin slowly recovered from the sharp decline in 2022. Earlier this year, the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and optimistic expectations in the market for a Fed rate cut supported the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In March this year, Bitcoin briefly surged to a historical high of $73,803.25.

However, after reaching a new all-time high in March, Bitcoin's performance has not been great and has fallen in the past two weeks. This is due to escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations that major central banks will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, causing global markets to feel uneasy. On Friday, risk assets took a hit after reports of a suspected retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran, with Bitcoin falling over 5.5% to below $60,000.

Bitcoin halvings occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Some cryptocurrency investors point out that the rebounds in Bitcoin after previous halvings indicate that this halving will boost Bitcoin prices. However, analysts from JP Morgan believe that after the halving, Bitcoin prices may fall due to the market still being in an overbought state. Analysts from Deutsche Bank also do not expect a significant increase in Bitcoin prices after the halving, as the market has already priced in this event.

S&P Global's cryptocurrency analyst Andrew O'Neill also expressed doubts about price predictions that can be derived from previous halvings, stating that "this is just one of the many factors driving Bitcoin prices." Moh Siong Sim, a foreign exchange strategist at a Singapore bank, said, "I believe the market is currently in risk-off mode." This means that Bitcoin, as a risk asset, may be avoided by investors