在 Envudeucitinib 成功完成三期试验结果后，评估 Alumis（ALMS）的估值

Alumis (ALMS) is back in focus after reporting successful Phase III results for its TYK2 inhibitor, envudeucitinib, in moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. This clinical milestone has prompted fresh attention from Wall Street research desks.

See our latest analysis for Alumis.

Despite a one-day share price return of negative 8.68% leaving Alumis at US$24.51, the 30-day and year-to-date share price returns of 173.70% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 227.67% suggest momentum has been strong as investors reassess growth prospects and risk after the Phase III success and the recent US$168.62m shelf registration filing.

If this kind of autoimmune drug story has your attention, it could be worth seeing what else is setting up in healthcare via healthcare stocks today.

With shares still trading below the average analyst price target of US$37.25, yet already showing a very large 1 year total return, you have to ask: is Alumis still mispriced, or are markets already baking in years of future growth?

Preferred Price-to-Book of 7.9x: Is it justified?

Alumis trades at a P/B of 7.9x, which looks cheaper than close peers on this metric but significantly richer than the broader US Pharmaceuticals group.

The P/B ratio compares the company’s market value to its book value, so a higher multiple often reflects strong expectations for future value creation rather than current profitability. For a clinical stage biopharmaceutical name like Alumis, where revenue is still early and the business is loss making, investors often lean on P/B because traditional earnings based measures are less useful.

Against its direct peer set, Alumis screens as good value, with its 7.9x P/B sitting below the peer average of 10.9x. This suggests the market is not assigning the highest premium within this group. At the same time, the same 7.9x multiple is more than triple the US Pharmaceuticals industry average of 2.5x, a strong sign that expectations baked into the current price are well above what is typical for the sector.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Result: Price-to-book of 7.9x (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, you still have meaningful risks here, including future trial outcomes across the pipeline and the company’s current net loss of US$245.153m on US$22.121m revenue.

Find out about the key risks to this Alumis narrative.

Build Your Own Alumis Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or just prefer to test your own view, you can build a full Alumis storyline in a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Alumis research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.