Moutai 2Q26 First Take: Results were weak, with both revenue and profit declining YoY and missing market expectations. Dolphin Research believes the main drag was steep, broad-based price cuts on non-standard SKUs early in the year, effectively 'paying the bill' for channel reform.
By product, Moutai liquor revenue came in at RMB 31.7bn, down 1% YoY, vs. a +15% Street consensus that proved detached from reality. Despite a cumulative 17% YTD hike in Feitian ex-factory prices, revenue still edged down, implying volume declines outweighed pricing.
Series liquor delivered RMB 5.1bn in revenue, down 25% YoY. Distributor data (net -46 in H1, mainly from series-liquor distributors) suggest ongoing inventory cleanup in the series lineup.By channel, direct sales revenue reached RMB 22.5bn, up 33.6% YoY. iMoutai generated RMB 18.7bn in a single quarter, accounting for nearly half of total revenue and lifting direct sales to 83% of the channel mix.
A self-operated app launched less than three years ago now contributes over 40% of liquor revenue, which is well ahead of expectations. The trade-off has been a short-term collapse in the wholesale channel, down 35% YoY.In 2Q, GPM fell 120bps YoY to 89.5%. Although the mix of higher-margin direct sales increased, the deterioration in product ASP per tonne and mix more than offset the benefits from channel upgrades.
Operating expenses were broadly stable vs. last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 17.2bn, down 6% YoY.$Moutai(600519.SH)
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