In the third quarter, Apple's revenue reached $109.4 billion, with iPhone sales increasing by 22%, both setting new highs for the same period. However, after-hours stock prices once plummeted by over 8%, wiping out more than $300 billion in market value. The root cause lies in the fact that the market always trades on the future—the fourth-quarter revenue guidance of only 9%-11% was lower than analysts' expectations of 12.1%.

Cook pointed to the "once-in-a-century" supply gap in memory chips triggered by the AI boom as the crux of the issue, which coincidentally echoes your previous emphasis on controlling drawdowns—no matter how impressive the financial report is, it cannot stop funds from fleeing when forward-looking guidance misses the mark. For investors, defense is always more important than offense: when black swan events hit the supply chain, even the most awesome technical analysis cannot withstand the reversal of fundamental expectations.