$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) The biggest significance of SpaceX's IPO for Rocket Lab is that it provides a horizontal valuation anchor.
At the current stock price, SpaceX's P/S ratio is about 76.7x, while RKLB is around 56.9x. Of course, RKLB is only relatively cheaper; 57x itself is still very expensive, after all, SpaceX is the absolute leader.
But! After completing the Iridium acquisition in 2027, it will start to look attractive. Assuming the RKLB stock price remains near 65 at closing, existing shareholders would be diluted by about 6.6%. Based on full-year 2027 combined revenue, the P/S ratio would be about 18x; at a closing price of 80, it corresponds to 22.2x; at 100, 27.4x; and at 112.5, 30.6x.
According to the M&A agreement, 67.5 and 112.5 are the two inflection points. The higher the stock price range, the less the dilution. If it rises to 130, there is still room in the P/S ratio.
Of course, the acquisition will also bring over $3 billion in net debt, but Iridium brings stable revenue, cash flow, users, spectrum, and a ready-made satellite network to RKLB, effectively providing a floor for the company.
What truly determines the stock price ceiling is Neutron,
Total failure: might drop to 30.
Delayed to 2028, but technology is still progressing: roughly 40 to 60.
Successful launch and stable order intake: roughly 70 to 110.
Progress goes very smoothly, and the Iridium business is also expanded: might see 130 to 200 again.
If there's another round of mindless hype about space data centers, the stock price could go infinitely high, making predictions futile.
My logic is also simple: Iridium puts a floor on the downside risk for the stock price, while Neutron is responsible for opening up the valuation ceiling. I believe Peter Beck will ultimately complete the commercialization of Neutron, it's just a matter of short-term delays. So the current stock price is very attractive to me. Rocket Lab is suitable for trading along with market sentiment waves.
Of course, this valuation has one major premise: the market must accept SpaceX's already halved valuation and not have any further major sell-offs.
That comes down to this: do you believe in Musk? Investing in space stocks requires a bit of faith 🤔
$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)
This year, it can be divided into several stock price ranges, and the valuation ceiling for the medium to short term can be calculated.
1.Aerospace bull market range $85-$115
Requires earnings reports to exceed expectations, no major delays for Neutron, plus the sector stimulus from SpaceX.
2.Neutral and reasonable range $60-$80
Neutron's first flight is calculated based on Q4, with no other fundamental deterioration.
3.Pessimistic scenario $40-$55
Neutron delays, delays, delays, the originally expected profitability in 2027 becomes distant and uncertain, affected by share dilution, unstable overall market, and other factors.
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