The US just released its latest core PCE inflation data, with market expectations at 3.3%. The actual release met expectations, but the monthly rate was only 0.1%. This is the smallest increase since March '25. Additionally, Q2 GDP was also below expectations,

Notably, this data is from June, which is the month oil prices fell. However, it at least proves that US inflation indeed dropped alongside falling oil prices, bringing some confidence to the market,

Now all market focus is on the September Fed meeting. Let's see if oil prices can fall in August. If they do, the probability of a rate hike will decrease.

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