Goldman Sachs: Memory
Market & Pricing Outlook> DRAM Pricing Growth: Conventional DRAM pricing is expected to see solid double-digit sequential growth in both the third and fourth quarters of 2026, driven by an ongoing supply shortage.> HBM Upside Next Year: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) pricing could potentially double next year due to rising conventional DRAM pricing. Goldman Sachs expects SEC's HBM pricing to rise 87% year-over-year, outpacing the Bloomberg sell-side consensus estimate of 52%.> Capacity vs. Bit Growth: While capacity additions this year are outpacing historical levels, overall bit growth is expected to remain below historical averages because of a high HBM trade ratio.Industry Dynamics & Competition> Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): LTAs are providing strong binding power—covering over half of server DRAM—backed by terms such as sizable prepayments, take-or-pay clauses, and cancellation penalties. Coverage ratios are expected to rise.> Chinese Suppliers: Chinese memory competitors pose a limited threat in the near-to-mid term due to sizable gaps in production yields, technology levels, and product reliability, despite active capacity expansion.> Hybrid Bonding: Adoption is expected to be gradual. Although stacking more DRAM dies makes existing bonding tech harder, achieving mass-production yields for hybrid bonding will take considerable time, leading companies to explore options like fluxless bonding in the interim.
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