Although I also have a heavy position in the US stock sector, stock trading still requires objective facts. CXMT's upper limit completely surpasses all external storage companies.

1. CXMT's equipment and materials have been sanctioned for many years. Previous expansions were intermittent due to restrictions on equipment and materials, but it can now expand on a large scale, which indicates domestic substitution. Even if it hasn't achieved 100% domestic substitution, at least foreign suppliers dare not cut off supply.

2. Currently, CXMT's global market share is only 8%, while the demand for local memory chips in China alone accounts for 30% of the global total. However, more than half of the world's memory chips are first sold to China, then assembled into electronic products and sold worldwide. It is possible that some foreign brands manufacturing in China also procure Chinese memory chips. Although the narrowing of the technological gap is slow, simply filling the domestic market share leaves room for 4 to 5 times growth. Combined with an annual industry demand growth of 25%, for CXMT, even if the top of the memory cycle has arrived and global market demand exceeds supply, by merely capturing domestic market share, the cycle tops for Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix will arrive early due to declining market share in China, whereas CXMT's cycle might be delayed by a few more years.

3. Even if it goes global later and faces global competition, the restricted markets are only the US, Japan, and South Korea, because only they have a memory industry. Referencing the new energy vehicles in Europe and Southeast Asia today, even if it hurts their local automakers' interests, they do not dare to completely ban entry into the market; they have yielded some market share. Since they do not have this memory industry, there is a high probability that their doors will remain wide open.

The best historical reference industry is display panels. BOE started large-scale expansion in 2010. At that time, equipment, talent, technology, and raw materials all relied on imports, and it was often impossible to buy the most advanced equipment. However, in 2016, BOE ranked first in shipment volume globally, and in 2021, BOE became the most profitable panel company in the world. Now, more than half of the equipment and materials for LCD panels have been localized.

Japan and Taiwan have already been marginalized in the panel industry.

Memory chips are highly likely to replicate this route. By around 2035, the number one player in the global memory chip market share will most likely be a Chinese enterprise.

$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)