[Mid-day July 28] Japanese and Korean stock markets plummet, Hong Kong stocks open high and fluctuate, the Federal Reserve becomes the sole focus
Good morning to all Longbridge friends. The Hong Kong stock market is still trading; here are my intraday observations.
I. Overnight US Stocks: Dow Jones up, Nasdaq down, semiconductors continue to drag
Dow Jones + 0.51% at 52,210.08
S&P 500 + 0.02% at 7,413.18
Nasdaq -0.18% at 24,932.08
PHLX Semiconductor Index fell over 2%, with memory chip stocks leading the decline
II. Asia-Pacific This Morning: Japanese and Korean Stock Markets Encounter 'Black Tuesday'
Nikkei 225 fell over 3%, breaking below 63,000 points.
South Korea's KOSPI plummeted over 6%, closing at 6,343.87 points, triggering a circuit breaker. SK Hynix fell over 9%, and Samsung Electronics fell over 7%. Panic sentiment in chip stocks spread from overnight US markets to Asia-Pacific.
In A-shares, the Shanghai Composite Index fell about 0.5%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell about 0.8%.
III. Hong Kong Stocks: Opened high then fluctuated, structural divergence
The Hang Seng Index opened high this morning and is currently maintaining operations above 25,500 points. Tech and internet stocks (Alibaba, JD.com, etc.) were relatively resilient, but the semiconductor sector weakened significantly due to the drag from Asia-Pacific markets. Overall market sentiment is cautious, with trading volume shrinking compared to the same period yesterday.
IV. Oil Prices: Crashed on Monday, watch for follow-up
WTI fell about 8.2% on Monday to $81.96, and Brent crude dropped to about $89. Expectations of US-Iran negotiations are the main suppressing factor.
V. Thursday Early Morning Fed: The Biggest Variable
Less than 48 hours until the interest rate decision. CME shows a 36.3% probability of a rate hike, while 104 economists have a 100% expectation of holding rates steady, and interest rate swap probabilities for a hike are around 40%. This is the largest expectation gap in nearly two years.
My Operation: No trades in the morning. Maintaining a 50% position, waiting for Thursday's resolution.
⚠️ Personal intraday observation, does not constitute investment advice. The Hong Kong stock market has not yet closed; data is for reference only.
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