$SpaceX(SPCX.US)

What would happen if SPCX's lock-up expires?

I'll outline three scenarios.

⸻

Scenario A (Probability 50%)

Soft Landing

* SPCX drops 15%-25%

* Nasdaq drops around 5%

* Quick recovery

Similar to:

Facebook 2012

The bull market continues.

Highest probability.

⸻

Scenario B (Probability 35%)

Mid-term Tech Stock Correction

If:

* AI capital expenditure slows

* Earnings fall short of expectations

Then:

The SPCX lock-up expiration becomes the trigger.

Result:

* SPCX drops 30%-40%

* Nasdaq drops 10%-15%

* S&P 500 drops 8%-12%

Similar to 2018.

⸻

Scenario C (Probability 15%)

Entering a Technical Bear Market

Simultaneous occurrence of:

* A wave of lock-up expirations

* The Fed turning hawkish again

* Long-term bond yields breaking 5%

* US economic recession

Then:

Nasdaq drops over 20%.

But at this point:

The reason is no longer SPCX.

It's the macro cycle.

The main concern now isn't SPCX itself, but the following chain reaction:

SPCX lock-up expiration

↓

Decline in risk appetite for tech stocks

↓

Compression of AI leader valuations

↓

Nasdaq correction

↓

Can corporate profits still maintain high growth?

The core indicators that will truly determine the direction of US stocks in the second half of 2026, ranked by importance:

1. US 10-year Treasury yield

2. Whether the Fed stops cutting rates or even turns hawkish

3. AI capital expenditure growth rate

4. NVIDIA's earnings growth rate

5. SPCX lock-up expiration progress

The importance of the first four items far exceeds that of the fifth.