In the coming years:

Unit costs will decline, but total AI computing power demand will continue to rise.

In the longer term:

The market will bifurcate, with low-ROI AI applications being phased out and high-ROI AI workflows surviving.

LongPort - GCLT
GCLT

$Oracle(ORCL.US)

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

$Amazon(AMZN.US)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

AWS:

Largest cloud infrastructure + Trainium/Graviton + Bedrock, stable but needs to prove monetization at the AI application layer.

Microsoft:

Strongest in enterprise AI monetization, with Copilot/Agent/Fabric/GitHub as core, but gross margin faces short-term pressure.

Google:

TPU + Gemini + Cloud backlog driving revaluation, strongest growth rate, but capex continues to rise.

Oracle:

A high-flexibility dark horse amid AI compute shortage, with astonishing RPO, but carries the greatest risks in capex, financing, and customer concentration.

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