Alibaba's recent stock price has already reached the bottom range.

Earlier this year, the "Big Short" Michael Burry, who became famous for shorting the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis, posted a message. He almost completely cleared all his short positions and announced new long positions in Alibaba. It's important to know that this is the real-life inspiration for the protagonist of the movie "The Big Short"—a natural-born short seller suddenly starting to go long, a signal more glaring than any research report.

During the more than a year I've held Alibaba, it has been a severe test of character. Buying all the way down from over 90 to over 80, the skepticism from those around me never stopped.

The positive side is accelerating: On May 4th, the Hong Kong stock market had a strong opening, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 2% in a single day, Alibaba rising nearly 6%, and tech stocks surging across the board. Alibaba's AI cloud revenue continues to release incremental growth, and capital is starting to give a positive response to good news.

The negative side is also clear: In April, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a 637 million yuan fine for the "ghost takeout" chaos. This exposes not a strategic problem at the antitrust level, but a shortfall in governance at the capillary level.

What's truly interesting is: when the big short starts to turn long, when Alibaba itself is using real money to buy back shares at the bottom, the market is still debating whether to buy—this is the biggest gap between price and value.

Price will always fluctuate, but value will ultimately return. The margin of safety is not a precise number calculated, but whether you are still willing to believe in the underlying logic when everyone can see the risks, but some choose to vote with their feet.

Of course, the bottom is never a point, but a range. No one can predict short-term fluctuations; war friction and macro pressures exist, and sentiment is easily amplified. But in the end, investing profits from the deviation between price and value.

Price will always fluctuate, but value will ultimately return.

At this very moment, I choose to continue patiently waiting for the wind to come.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)$BABA-W(09988.HK)