不奋东西
2026.05.06 01:14

After AMD's earnings report was mentioned yesterday, $Intel(INTC.US) Intel would move in tandem, and indeed it also rose.

When you've sold AMD too early, you can keep an eye on Intel; maybe by 2027 it will be completely different.

Key drivers: Domestic IDM + 18A advanced process node + the sovereign premium of SHIELD are the biggest differentiating advantages. The resurgence of CPU's "head coach" role in the Agent AI era benefits both Intel and AMD, but Intel carries higher execution risk.

LongPort - 不奋东西
不奋东西

$AMD(AMD.US)

This world is too crazy, it really preys on the weak and fears the strong. I thought it would rise, but I didn't expect it to rise so much after the earnings report. The wheel of fortune turns. CPU and storage are the main themes recently!

The stock market is unpredictable!!!

The $Sandisk(SNDK.US) I sold at 670 has already doubled, 80k gone. I gambled on the $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) earnings report, 6 options contracts lost nearly 2000.

For a short while, I won't sell any more shares. The stocks being transferred are on the way. Later, I'll seek rent by selling calls and puts, and if the price reaches it, I'll take them back. The previous 190-260 range has become invalid. Experience needs to be accumulated anew by everyone.

Earnings Report Link

https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results

### Core Performance (Significantly Exceeding Expectations)

- **Revenue**: **$10.3 billion** (+38% YoY), above the midpoint of company guidance ($9.8B) and market consensus (~$9.84-9.9B).

- **Non-GAAP EPS**: **$1.37** (+43% YoY), above consensus of ~$1.29-1.30.

- **Non-GAAP Gross Margin**: **55%** (in line with guidance, slightly down from 57% last quarter, mainly due to the fading of one-time factors).

- **Data Center**: **$5.8 billion** (+57% YoY), a record, driven by both EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs, the strongest engine this quarter.

- **Client & Gaming**: $3.6 billion (+23% YoY).

- **Embedded**: $873 million (+6% YoY).

- Record Free Cash Flow of **$2.6 billion**.

**Highlights**: Data Center has become the primary driver of revenue and profit. EPYC server CPUs set records for multiple consecutive quarters. AI inference + Agentic AI significantly boosted CPU demand (CPU:GPU ratio increased).

### Q2 Guidance (Optimistic)

- **Revenue**: **$11.2 billion ±$300 million** (midpoint YoY +46%, QoQ +9%).

- **Non-GAAP Gross Margin**: Approximately **56%**.

- Server CPU revenue expected Q2 YoY +70%+, full-year server CPU TAM growth rate raised to >35%/year (exceeding $120 billion by 2030).

**Management View** (Lisa Su):

- AI infrastructure demand is accelerating, inference and Agentic AI are driving significant demand for high-performance CPUs.

- MI450 series + Helios rack platform H2 volume ramp on track, large orders from Meta/OpenAI progressing smoothly, customer forecasts exceeding initial expectations.

- Higher confidence in reaching tens of billions in Data Center AI revenue by 2027.

### Market Reaction (After-hours to date)

Stock price surged (+10%+), breaking recent highs, reflecting market recognition of the "CPU Reshaping + AI GPU Deployment" logic.

**Overall Assessment**: This is a **strong earnings report**. Revenue, EPS, and Data Center performance all exceeded expectations. Q2 guidance is also relatively positive, validating the return of the CPU's "head coach" role in the second half of AI. Short-term risks still include volatility under high valuation and gross margin pressure, but the long-term AI thesis has been further reinforced.

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