US Stock Market Outlook 4.29—How to Deal with Super Day

Tonight is practically a super day, with the FOMC at 2 AM and 4 out of the mega7 reporting earnings after hours. I'll briefly outline these expectations today.

First, regarding tonight's meeting, there's no need to be overly tense. It's highly unlikely we'll get much new information from this meeting. It's expected to be another hold. Even if the tone is slightly hawkish, given the upcoming leadership transition, it probably won't matter much. The usual pattern is a pre-Fed meeting rally followed by a post-meeting pullback, but the opportunity here is limited. I think it's more valuable to focus on the Bank of England and European Central Bank dynamics tomorrow.

Now, looking at the expectations for these earnings reports. The market has shifted its focus to the ratio of capital expenditure to revenue, rather than the absolute amount. Current expectations are already near the limit (Meta ~33%, Microsoft ~30%), with risks still skewed to the upside as costs rise. The real issue isn't demand... demand will undoubtedly be strong, but rather how much the headline numbers exceed expectations, how high capex will go, and what the implied returns look like. In my view, there's also divergence among these four. As usual, here's my personal ranking: msft>meta>googl=amzn. This ranking isn't about earnings quality (if it were, the order would be reversed). This ranking is a comprehensive view of market sentiment, recent performance, and forward expectations, predicting the post-earnings performance.

Overall, the importance of today's after-hours earnings reports, in my opinion, far outweighs tonight's FOMC meeting. If divergence occurs, it could drive a rotation of funds across the entire sector. However, in my view, there's a second script for tonight. As April draws to a close, we will see a wave of major IPOs in the primary market over the next two months. It's possible funds will use this earnings season to pump up the mega giants and then withdraw liquidity to shift towards the primary market.

In short, the most crucial day of the month will be revealed after the market closes. Let's wait and see.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Meta(META.US)$Amazon (AMZN.US)$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)$iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US)$Meta(META.US)$TSMC (TSM.US)$Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)$Circle(CRCL.US)$Coinbase(COIN.US)$Intel (INTC.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Eli Lilly (LLY.US)$Novo Nordisk (NVO.US)$IREN(IREN.US)$Applied Digital(APLD.US)