Let me state my judgment upfront: Before the May 6th earnings report, $Arm(ARM.US) has already exhausted the good story. On earnings day, the most likely scenario is "guidance that appears to beat expectations, but the stock price dives in the opposite direction." The reason is just one—the market's expectations for ARM's self-developed AGI CPU and its $25B long-term narrative are already too full.

The facts behind this are solid: ARM rose 50% in 22 days from the April 7th low; the March 25th announcement of shifting from a licensing model to self-developing chips was the starting point of the momentum; the post-earnings pull for Intel was emotional spillover; plus the three layers of Agentic AI pushing the CPU demand inflection point. Estimated EPS is $0.54, revenue is $1.47B (YoY +18%). The numbers themselves aren't exaggerated, but they correspond to a distant story: "$15B of the $25B revenue in 2031 will rely on AGI CPUs that haven't even entered mass production." This valuation anchor is fragile—if they say even one word less about "our AGI CPU timeline is on-track," the market will treat it as a "narrative discount."

The current level isn't suitable for chasing: IV is inevitably high before earnings. Even if the earnings direction is correct, IV crush will hurt long Calls. My own view is—just wait and watch this wave. A 5–8% pullback after earnings is normal. It's more stable to enter based on fundamentals (royalty fees + SoftBank synergy) at that time. The two big red candles in pre-market and after-hours are not the end, they are a reset.