GOOGL's earnings report is out tonight, can we still follow the overheated stocks?

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) will release its Q1 earnings after the US market close on April 29th (Eastern Time).

On paper, expectations are quite optimistic—EPS $2.63, revenue $106.89B, with a Strong Buy rating of 26 Buys / 5 Holds. It just hit a new all-time high of $350.34 on April 27th. But one data point made me pause: the options market has priced in an earnings implied volatility of +/- 5.63% for this report, while GOOGL's actual move over the past 4 quarters has only been +/- 1.44%, making the IV premium nearly 4 times the historical average.

In simple terms: the market knows something is going to happen this time, but doesn't know which direction. I'm thinking that rushing into long Calls at a time like this is basically giving money to market makers—once the earnings are out and IV crushes, you might not make money even if you get the direction right.

There are two key things to watch this time: the commercialization progress of Gemini AI, and whether YouTube ads can withstand the overall softness in the ad market. Cloud business margins are another hidden key—as long as cloud margins don't suddenly collapse. But this stock is already up +78% YTD and +118% TTM, and its valuation is already pricing in "excellent execution + AI benefits" quite fully. Even earnings that merely "meet expectations" could trigger a sell-off by short-term profit-takers due to "lack of surprise".

So, I personally plan to sit out tonight's earnings and get on board after the numbers are out and the IV crush is over. Here's the specific plan—

Set up a Bull Put Spread on the May 16th (DTE 17) expiration:
Sell GOOGL 5/16 $335 Put (a 4–5% pullback level post-earnings)
Buy GOOGL 5/16 $325 Put for insurance
Net credit received ≈ $250–300 / contract (depends on where IV settles post-earnings)
Max loss ≈ width × 100 - net credit = $1000 - $300 = risk per contract locked at $700–750
Stop loss trigger: Close the position immediately if the spot price breaks below $328 (don't wait for expiration to avoid assignment risk)

This structure doesn't bet on direction or magnitude, only on "GOOGL not crashing more than 7% after earnings". I could still be wrong—if Gemini data is significantly below expectations or cloud margins collapse, and GOOGL drops 10%+, this trade will still blow up. But the maximum loss is locked in at the time of placing the order, so I know exactly how much I could lose.

Looking at the GEX, key gamma magnet levels for the May OPEX are: resistance around the $360 round number (call wall accumulation area), and support around $330 (put wall + earnings pullback level). This is also the basis I used to determine the sell put strike price. I'll check for changes in these two levels again after tonight's numbers.