
$GigaDevice.HK has been listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange for over three months since January 13th, and its monthly gains have been increasingly exaggerated. What's driving it isn't just the company itself, but the overall boom in the memory chip sector. In Q1 2026, DRAM contract prices are expected to rise 90% to 95% quarter-on-quarter, with another roughly 30% increase in Q2—a rate of price hikes rarely seen in a decade. This is fueled by explosive demand for HBM and DDR5 from AI servers, coupled with the end of inventory clearance in the traditional consumer market. But I have to say—the price of 477.8HKD is no longer cheap. In three months, it has more than doubled from its Hong Kong IPO price, and the AH discount/premium between the A-share 603986 and the H-share has inverted (H-shares are more expensive than A-shares). Historically, this situation has rarely lasted more than 4-6 weeks. Personally, I view it in two parts: the industry boom is real, and the valuation is already overstretched—both are true.
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