Stock Live Trading P168: Potential Sword

It's been almost two months of ups and downs, and my analysis from late January was completely right. I think you can only focus on the main theme; all the side themes have collapsed. Now two months have passed, the "Seven Sisters" are still bleeding, while storage is still soaring.

Pop Mart, I judged yesterday that it would definitely fall today, and today it indeed plummeted. Actually, I already gave out the reasoning for yesterday's judgment. Things like Pop Mart, Pinduoduo, and Bitcoin rise extremely fast when there's no consensus. Once a consensus forms, there's no story left; the consensus is there to make you the last buyer. When no one understood or recognized Pop Mart, it could rise from 10 yuan to over 300 yuan. But once everyone recognizes its financial report, thinks it exceeded expectations, it can directly crash from 300 to 150 for you.

I dare to assert that around 340 is Pop Mart's multi-year high. It's impossible for it to break this level in the coming years; at most, it will hover around 260. This is the pattern because the story is over. The momentum is gone, those who should be trapped are already trapped, there isn't that much capital anymore. Capital will choose a sector with more hype potential, not this outdated thing. The previous wave of share buybacks has already exhausted this stock's potential.

It's like Pinduoduo. In 2021, it was when people just started thinking Pinduoduo might surpass Alibaba, and it was most expensive at over 200. But five years have passed, and it's been halved. Returning to over 200 is nowhere in sight because this thing has completely lost capital recognition; even dogs don't want it. Bitcoin is actually similar; when people are willing to hype it, it can have a few more waves, more or less.

I'm not bullish on a big rise for the "Seven Sisters," but I think the downside is also limited. Because this thing is, after all, the cornerstone of the US stock market. Breaking previous highs is definitely impossible, but a 10% rebound is still possible. After all, it's quality assets, and when it's cheap enough, big money will go bottom-fishing.

Looking to the future for the real players, we still need to watch precious metals. If you're bearish on US stocks, you go long on precious metals. If you're bullish on US stocks, going long on precious metals isn't wrong either. I remember in '08, that big US stock market short was bearish on US stocks, but they didn't short US stocks; they chose to go long on gold and ended up making a killing.

Alright, the rest can be omitted. My point is the "Seven Sisters" are very cheap and can be bought. Storage is not recommended to participate in now, just buy some precious metals. Pinduoduo, Pop Mart, those are already trash swept into the garbage heap; you can buy a little to bet on a rebound. But forget about long-term investment. Anyone talking about value investing, long-term investment in these kinds of stocks is just fooling people.