Volume contraction adjustment!!

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ The market's adjustment today was entirely within expectations, not surprising at all. After two consecutive days of strong recovery, coupled with the climax of the power sector yesterday, today itself was a window for profit-taking by bottom-fishing funds.

The adjustment also led to a simultaneous weakening of short-term sentiment: the consecutive board rate dropped from 27% yesterday to 13%, with nearly 4500 stocks declining and 13 hitting the daily lower limit. As mentioned yesterday, with selling pressure above + external uncertainties, it's difficult for the market to achieve a breakthrough at this level in one go.

Although it's a healthy adjustment, the market is still a game of existing capital, with no incremental funds entering. The structure of volatile bottom-grinding will continue.

To judge whether the market can stabilize, the key is to watch the crude oil trend, which is the most intuitive signal for external easing. In the afternoon, oil prices rose slightly again, returning near $100.

Senior energy traders have a rule: when oil prices approach $95-100, the US's conciliatory rhetoric escalates, and market expectations for intervention heat up.

Oil prices are inversely proportional to market stability and the sustainability of tech themes. Only when oil prices are controlled will off-market funds flow back.

Based on this pattern: above $100 there are expectations of easing, combined with today's deep correction, there is an expectation of a slight recovery in the market tomorrow, but don't get your hopes too high—after all, tomorrow is Friday, and watchful funds won't enter in large numbers.

Now let's look at the sector hotspots:

1. Power
Last night's review clearly warned: today the power sector will see significant differentiation, avoid mid-tier stocks, only focus on low-position catch-up plays.

Today's movement went exactly as scripted: mid-tier follower stocks almost all fell sharply. Among the limit-up stocks, except for the core Huaneng, they were all low-position, low-price, small-gain varieties.

The short-term gains in the power sector have clearly been overextended, but the rally won't end immediately. The key is to watch the movement of the leading stock, Hualiao. As long as the leader hasn't truly topped out and crashed, the sector still has local opportunities.

Continue to focus on low-position + low-price + small-gain catch-up plays, and try to avoid rebounds in eliminated mid-tier stocks—in the early stage it was a mindless rally phase, holding on could still recover; in the later stage, a drop is a real drop, and it's hard to hit new highs in the short term.

2. Commercial Aerospace
Major news on March 25: Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week, aiming to raise over $750 billion, potentially becoming one of the world's largest IPOs, establishing a new paradigm for trillion-dollar valuations in commercial aerospace. The current valuation is $1.5-1.75 trillion, with the raised funds to be used primarily for Starship mass production, Starlink expansion, and next-generation technology R&D.

This news directly ignited the sector's heat. As the global leader, SpaceX's listing is not only a milestone for itself but will also drive up valuations and orders across the entire industry chain. The listing of a trillion-dollar sector leader will reshape the market's value perception of commercial aerospace.

Today, funds were clearly involved in related targets, and subsequent catalysts will increase. The sector has undergone months of adjustment, with an average decline of nearly 30%, making the adjustment sufficient. Opportunities can be gradually watched in the medium term.

Previously, the market expected an IPO in 2026 but the timing was vague. This time, it's clear about submitting this week and raising $750 billion, far exceeding the previous expectation of $300 billion, creating a strong expectation gap, making it worth tracking closely.