$VG S&P 500(VOO.US) is currently in an awkward position, below the 200-day moving average, and with the midterm elections approaching. Trump can't be ignored, so it all depends on whether this artist can pull it off. If things blow up by accident, it won't be a matter of just one or two percentage points.

Generally, if it stays below the 200-day line for three consecutive days, many institutions will be forced to reduce their holdings or hedge by shorting.

If there's no peace talk this week, or if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, then it's not just about pricing in inflation anymore, but also pricing in a recession. If this week doesn't go well, reducing holdings or hedging would be the rational move. As for bottom-fishing, you should at least wait for the broader market to drop another 5% before buying in batches.