$PDD(PDD.US)

The "King of Competition" is handing in its report card tonight. Pinduoduo is releasing its earnings tonight, which is a major event the market is watching closely.

- Last year, Pinduoduo was incredibly strong, with Temu going crazy overseas, and even foreigners couldn't resist the temptation of the "slash one more time" deals.

- But this year is a bit different. Regulatory pressure on Temu in the US is increasing, with a bunch of issues like tariffs and data security.

- The domestic e-commerce scene is even more fiercely competitive, with Alibaba, JD.com, and Douyin all fighting for market share.

If the earnings report shows overseas growth is still strong, the stock price might surge further; if Temu's growth slows, then we need to be careful. After all, at its current valuation, there's no room for any mistakes.

To get to the point: Looking at its peers $TENCENT(00700.HK)$BABA-W(09988.HK), if it doesn't significantly beat expectations, the stock will likely fall. A rough estimate tonight suggests a possible 5% drop.