How long has the current bear market for BTC lasted? What is the bottom range and duration? How to respond?

In this bear market, BTC peaked at 126k on 2025.10.06, with a low of 60k on 2026.02.06, already halved, having corrected for over five months.

After more than a decade of development, BTC's value and characteristics have gradually gained mainstream recognition worldwide. First, BTC's value has been discovered and recognized for value storage, payment, and improving production efficiency. Second, BTC, gold, and US dollar assets are the three major reservoirs that can be used to resolve US debt and consolidate US dollar hegemony, gaining official US recognition and acceptance. Third, traditional finance continues to inject liquidity through DAT ETFs and other means, buying BTC to provide a price floor.

Considering these changes and historical patterns, it is believed that for BTC's current bear market, the bottoming time: perhaps the bottom has already been reached, but there might still be a final panic drop or two, likely in 2026 Q2–Q3. BTC bottom range: $56,000–$65,000, with extreme wicks below $50,000; ETH bottom range: $1,700–$2,000, with extreme wicks below $1,500; reversal time in 2026 Q4.

No one can accumulate enough chips at the absolute bottom. During times of real panic, bloodshed, and counter-human nature, people dare not buy; they are filled with fear. Moreover, no one can precisely predict the lowest point. The bottom is often a range, only recognized in hindsight. Therefore, discovering truly scarce assets, being roughly right, staying invested, and gradually dollar-cost averaging into BTC at 6.9k + ETH at 2000, or entering via DAT (MSTR BMNR), CRCL, COIN, HOOD, might be more suitable for most people than trying to time the exact bottom.

Furthermore, the narrative for CRCL this cycle might be even grander than the coin itself or the exchanges!