[260323] All my superficial views on the war trend, and the current situation

The market suddenly surged during today's session, the reason being a post by Donald Trump.

Subsequently, Iran denied it.

The dimensions of war are not limited to bombing, missiles, and seizing islands; there is also information warfare and public opinion warfare. Both sides will release intelligence of unknown veracity through various channels to confuse the other side, used to conceal deeper strategic motives.

As for the US stock market, Wall Street researchers are also confused by this information. In this world controlled by information, the sensitive US stock market is swayed by all sorts of information, and ordinary people simply cannot thoroughly analyze the correct direction from the information flow.

In my view, we should not be confused by complex information. We only need to clearly know the demands of the various parties regarding the war.

On the US side, controlling Iranian oil, controlling the Strait of Hormuz, controlling Iran's future nuclear deterrence, and firmly maintaining the US dollar as the sole currency for energy settlement—this is not only about maintaining dollar hegemony but also a crucial means to curb the development of the Renminbi. Maintaining and strengthening dollar hegemony is an open secret on Wall Street; they won't tell you this openly.

Venezuela has already surrendered, and the Renminbi as the settlement currency for Venezuelan oil has been terminated. Now only Iran and Russia remain. And dealing with Iran is an action that is both important and relatively easy.

The US Treasury Secretary posted, saying they will endure 50 days of oil volatility to win this war.

Looking at the current state of the war, the strategic objectives have not been achieved, and the price has already been paid. Iran's air force and navy have completely lost their combat capability. Under such circumstances where 75% of the situation is already controlled, suddenly stopping is tantamount to surrender. On Little Red Book, you can see news of Iran launching dozens of drones and missiles every day. This kind of motivational behavior precisely indicates the weakness of Iran's military-industrial regeneration capacity. When weapons are abundant and production capacity is sufficient, what is launched daily wouldn't be just dozens of missiles. If the army, navy, and air force had sufficient capability, they wouldn't risk incurring the wrath of oil-producing countries by blockading the strait. These are the few remaining cards, and they must be held firmly.

Looking from Trump's perspective now, he first faces midterm elections. If the war is lost, the midterm elections will certainly fail. If the war is won, maintaining and strengthening dollar hegemony will also gain the support of high-level strategic elites, ensuring success in the midterm elections. You must not overlook that the US considers containing China as its primary national policy.

The seemingly capricious tweets from Trump are actually a "delaying" tactic, using the strategy of "delay" to alleviate rising oil prices, and using delay to perfect new strategic reinforcements for the Strait of Hormuz. You should know that the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group is on its way for reinforcement, France's Charles de Gaulle carrier strike group is also on the way, the USS Lincoln is undergoing repairs, and Japan's dispatched amphibious assault ships and marines will arrive at the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow or the day after.

Only when all preparations are sufficient will be the time for oil to truly surge explosively. And the war must be decided.

But all this is just my personal view. In the current situation, holding a short position is the best choice because you cannot bet correctly on the US stock market's movement every day. Blindly being bullish or bearish now is like taking chestnuts from the fire. Every rise in the US stock market, before a decisive victory is achieved, is a good opportunity to exit short positions.

Waiting for the situation to become a bit clearer, then going all in to bottom-fish and achieve multiple returns is the best strategy. And when $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) rise again, $Sandisk(SNDK.US) will face a sharp drop after the rebound. Because capital will flow into stocks with lower valuations and greater upside potential.

I believe the analysts and traders on Wall Street will share some consensus on what I've said. The surge amidst the uncertainty of the war situation is merely a short-term operation using sentiment to pump and dump for risk aversion.