Elena mi
2026.03.23 09:36

On the surface, Alibaba's earnings report shows a collapse in profits, but in reality, it's a case of "actively shifting gears."

Let's start with the most critical data: Alibaba-W (09988.HK) reported revenue of 284.8 billion yuan this quarter, a mere 2% year-over-year increase, slightly below market expectations; operating profit was only 10.6 billion yuan, plummeting 74% year-over-year.
This decline is indeed quite rare in recent years, with profits directly falling from the "hundreds of billions level" to just "over a hundred billion."

If you only look at this part, it's easy to conclude: Is Alibaba's core business in trouble?
But if you break down the earnings report, you'll find that this isn't a single-line issue; rather, two completely different logics are simultaneously unfolding within Alibaba.


On one side, "Bleeding": E-commerce and food delivery are squeezing profits

The traditional e-commerce segment has clearly entered a slower lane.

This quarter, customer management revenue grew only 1% year-over-year. While it doesn't look too bad on the surface, the core reasons are actually quite simple:
First, overall transaction momentum is weak; second, the benefits from past platform fee optimizations are gradually fading.

In plain terms: Alibaba has essentially already made a round of profits from the money it could earn; moving forward from here is significantly more difficult.

More critically, on the profit side, Alibaba was hit hard by instant retail, especially the food delivery business.
Everyone knows about the subsidy wars, but what truly surprised the market this time was: the intensity of cash burn is higher than expected, and its persistence is stronger.
This isn't just a matter of "running a promotion for a while"; it's directly flattening profits.

Coupled with revenue changes from asset disposals, such as the impact after the retail business spin-off, other segments also showed significant overall contraction. This part's drag on the financial statements is real.


On the other side, "Creating Blood": Cloud and AI are starting to take over the growth narrative

But if you only focus on profits, you'll miss the real variable in this earnings report.

The standout this time was actually the cloud business:
Revenue of 43.3 billion yuan, a 36% year-over-year increase.
For a business of Alibaba's scale, this growth rate is no longer just "steady growth"; it's a clear re-acceleration.

More importantly, behind the cloud business is not just cloud, but the entire AI ecosystem working together:

In-house developed chips are scaling up, and the computing power foundation is being strengthened;
Tongyi Qianwen continues to iterate, improving model capabilities;
The open-source ecosystem keeps expanding, with downloads surpassing 10 billion;
The monthly active users of the C-end app, Qianwen App, have surged to the 300 million level.

What does this mean?
In one sentence: Alibaba is no longer just "doing AI"; it's building a complete closed loop from underlying computing power to models, and then to applications.

And there's a crucial point here: Alibaba is gradually turning its technological advantages into user scale.
This is much more solid than simply telling an AI story.


The core contradiction of this earnings report can be summed up in one sentence

Short-term profits have been "eaten up" by strategic investments, but the long-term growth engine is taking shape.

Naturally, the market is divided into two camps:

Those focused on the short term think the performance has collapsed;
Those focused on the long term see this as an active gear shift.

This is also why the market reacted so strongly after the earnings release. Because this isn't a simple question of "earning more or less"; it's the question of whether Alibaba can still be considered a traditional e-commerce company.


What does Wall Street think?

The views of several major institutions are quite consistent.

Goldman Sachs defined the profit plunge as an "earnings reset," viewing the AI investments as proactive and likely to continue in the coming quarters.
J.P. Morgan's statement was more direct: the core logic hasn't changed; it's just that e-commerce has entered a cyclical slowdown phase, while cloud and AI are accelerating.

They focused on several signals:

Cloud business growth continues to rise, with clear AI-driven momentum;
E-commerce growth is expected to recover from its lows;
While instant retail is still burning cash, a profitability timeline has been provided.

In other words, institutions didn't interpret this report as a sign of "deteriorating fundamentals," but rather as a structural shift.


The stock price drop is emotional pricing, not necessarily the final outcome

The stock price fell after the earnings, with Hong Kong shares dropping nearly 10% at one point. This reaction is quite typical:
The profits look too ugly, so the market sells first and asks questions later.

But if you extend the timeline, this looks more like a multiple-choice question:

If you believe Alibaba is still a pure e-commerce company, then this earnings report is indeed not good-looking;
If you believe it's transforming into a cloud + AI-driven platform company, then this report looks more like paying for the future.


The most straightforward conclusion

The issue with this earnings report is not failing to make money, but choosing not to make money for now.

Where did the money go?
To fight the food delivery war, to invest heavily in AI, to build computing power.

In the short term, it hurts;
But in the long term, if these investments succeed, they have the potential to redefine Alibaba's growth ceiling.

Therefore, what's most worth remembering from this earnings report is not the 74% profit decline, but the fact that Alibaba is telling the market with real money:
It doesn't want to be just a profitable e-commerce company; it wants to redefine itself.

As for whether it's worth it, it depends on whether you care more about next quarter's profits or the next technological cycle.
The market never gives you a perfect answer.

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