The probability of a global economic recession has arrived.

Due to the continuous surge in oil prices, the market is now making predictions about an economic recession based on oil prices. According to a survey of 50 economists, their answer is that if the average oil price reaches $138 and lasts for 14 weeks, the world may fall into an economic recession.

They give the United States a 32% probability of falling into an economic recession within the next 12 months.

However, they believe other countries may be in greater danger than the US because the US is now a net energy exporter, so it can withstand higher oil prices. Countries like Europe, Japan, and South Korea will pay a higher price because they are highly dependent on energy imports.

Their consensus view is that if energy prices remain high, they may start to dampen market confidence within the next few weeks. At the same time, signs of stress have already appeared in the credit market, such as the recent surge in redemption requests in the private credit sector, which further intensifies concerns that the overall economic outlook may deteriorate.

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)$United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)