🔥🚨 $Alibaba(BABA.US) has only risen 30% in 12 years. The problem is not with the company, but that "the market no longer believes in the same story."

Many people will be shocked by this comparison:

Alibaba has been listed for 12 years, with a total return of about 30%.

Over the same period, $SPX is close to 300%.

Core CPI has accumulated about 40%.

On the surface, it's "underperforming everything."

But the real problem is not the return, but that "the pricing logic has changed."

Over the past 20 years, the market rewarded "imagination."

In their early days, Tencent and Alibaba didn't make money, yet their stock prices kept rising because the market was buying a future—

room for user growth, platform expansion, and a business model that hadn't been fully realized.

Back then, losses weren't a problem; they were proof of "investment."

But now, the logic is completely reversed.

When a company starts making money, it instead means:

Clearer growth path → More limited room for imagination → Valuation begins to contract

This is why:

In the past, no profit → Stock price rose (driven by expectations)

Now, high profit → Stock price falls (compression after realization)

And AI is repeating the same script.

Current AI companies, even without stable profits, can still get high valuations—

because the market is once again buying the "future."

But this also sows the seeds for the same cycle:

Once AI truly starts making money, the market will likely no longer give an "imagination premium,"

and instead turn to "valuation compression after realization."

This is the most easily overlooked point.

Back to $Alibaba(BABA.US) itself.

The market's judgment of it has fundamentally changed:

From a "light-asset, explosive-growth tech platform"

To a "heavy-asset, growth-slowing infrastructure-type company."

Once categorized as the latter, the valuation system is completely different.

Growth rate declines → Capital expenditure rises → Return period lengthens

The multiple the market gives naturally falls

So the problem isn't whether Alibaba makes money,

but what kind of company it is perceived to be.

And losing $66 billion in 24 hours is essentially one thing:

The AI expectation gap.

The market is starting to reallocate "who the future belongs to."

Capital is making a choice:

Continue betting on the new narrative (AI), or stay in the old platform that has already been validated.

This is also why Tencent and Alibaba are being revalued at the same time.

So, the real core of this round is not:

Whether Alibaba has gotten worse,

But whether it's still worth pricing with the logic of a "tech company."

If AI also moves towards a stage of "high profit but low expectations" in the future,

Today's script is likely just a preview.

Do you lean more towards this being $Alibaba(BABA.US) being unfairly punished, or the market already pricing in a lower-growth future in advance?