Mentioning the possibility of a rate hike, a summary of the latest Fed meeting.

Powell said he hasn't completely ruled out the possibility of a rate hike

Let me summarize a few key points from the latest Fed meeting for everyone,

First, the absence of a rate cut was within expectations,

Then Powell spoke

First, he said if inflation can't come down, there won't be further rate cuts, and the possibility of a hike was mentioned, but most people don't think this was expected, so the likelihood isn't high right now,

Second, it's hard to judge whether the surge in oil prices will drive inflation.

Third, domestic inflation in the US is slightly high, but risks in the job market also exist simultaneously.

Then, regarding market concerns about whether he will leave after his term as Chairman ends in May, he said two things:

1. If his judicial investigation isn't over, he won't step down.

2. If Warsh's nomination is delayed, he will continue as Fed Chairman.

I mentioned this point in my previous post, for reasons you can check my previous post.

Finally, the dot plot. The Fed's latest expectation is one rate cut in '26, then another in '27. But this dot plot is based on current inflation and employment expectations, not very meaningful. Even Powell said their latest forecasts now are like guessing blindly because of the uncertainty from the war; they simply can't predict what will happen in the future.

Alright, the whole meeting was neutral-hawkish. We could also see the whole market was falling while Powell was speaking.

Now let's focus on oil prices, see when they can stabilize. If they can drop to 90 or even below 80, that would be a big positive for the market.

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