RKLB CommentatorThere's probably nothing to see in the first half of the year; it's suitable for guerrilla tactics or watching the show with a light position. There are currently many uncertain factors.
1. Core PCE prices have been rising continuously since last year's tariffs.
2. Geopolitics are pushing up crude oil prices, raising short-to-medium-term inflation expectations.
3. The Fed chair transition is still ongoing, and Warsh hasn't made a statement yet (the market seems to have forgotten him). Monetary policy uncertainty is very high. Based on current data, the probability of a rate cut in the first half of Powell's term is not high.
4. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised rates twice. This week is a super central bank week; pay more attention to the actions of global central banks.
5. Non-farm payrolls were again much lower than expected, showing some signs of stagflation trading.
Also, pay attention to Bitcoin's halt and crash last year, followed by the collapse of many individual stocks and the sideways movement of the major indices, which basically indicates the direction of liquidity expectations.
$Strategy(MSTR.US) Even the big brother CRCL can't lift crypto 😂 But it's much stronger than the US stock market trend. The garbage time for the broader market probably means no significant moves in the first half of the year.
From a macro perspective, PCE has been rising continuously since the tariff war started in April last year, with no signs of going down. GDP data also fell short of expectations, and the unemployment rate is relatively high. If this continues, we could call it stagflation. The market hasn't paid much attention to the Fed's moves for a long time, everyone's watching Trump's performance.
$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) The space sector is performing quite well. Continue buying the small rocket on dips for day trading.
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