The decline has stopped and there's a slight recovery, a small rebound!!

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ Shanghai Composite Index sh000001
The index has been adjusting for four or five consecutive days, and finally saw a stop-loss recovery today! Like a long drought followed by a welcome rain, although it's only a small rebound, it's enough for everyone to take a breather.

The market sentiment has been low recently, with thin trading, a typical phase of volatile bottoming and chip swapping.

Often when most people can't hold on anymore and desperately sell at a loss, the main players start to accumulate at low levels, and the market quietly stabilizes.

From the pattern of the Shanghai Index, the 4000-4050 range is an important support level over the past two months.

In March, volatility increased due to external conflicts, but the 4050 point has not been effectively broken. Even if it broke intraday, it could quickly recover, showing strong support. The short-term index is likely to stabilize.

In terms of trading volume, the full-day turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen fell back to around 2 trillion, touching a short-term low. As long as there is no major negative news from overseas tonight, a continued rebound tomorrow can be expected.

A reminder: short-term rebound ≠ market reversal. Whether the market can stabilize going forward depends on the sustainability of thematic plays and the inflow of incremental funds. Keep a close eye on volume changes.

Now let's look at the sector themes:

1. Technology Line (Today's Leading Core)

The technology line saw a comprehensive rebound, with computing power leasing, computing power hardware, and memory chips leading the gains.

Two major catalysts:

1. Alibaba Cloud officially announced price increases: AI computing power and storage up to 34%, Pingtouge Zhenwu 810E up 5%–34%, CPFS intelligent computing storage up 30%. Demand explosion + rising costs make the logic solid.
2. Jensen Huang's GTC proposed the 'Token Factory': positioning computing power as a digital bulk commodity, opening up space for trillion-level demand, directly igniting sentiment in the computing power sector.

The underlying logic remains the AI megatrend driving the explosive demand for computing power, storage, and optical modules.

In a volatile market, thematic sustainability is limited. Prioritize targets with solid earnings and technological moats. Be cautious about chasing pure concept plays.

2. Conflict Line (Safe-haven Fading, High-level Volatility)

US forces struck Iranian missile positions, easing risks in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Crude oil futures plunged, and the oil & gas and chemical sectors adjusted accordingly.

Japanese and South Korean stock markets strengthened significantly, and market risk appetite rebounded.

If conflicts reignite, oil & gas and chemicals may still see repeated opportunities, but the sectors have already seen significant gains, making operations much more difficult.
Only suitable for experts to trade quickly with strict discipline, without holding on.

3. Commercial Aerospace (Oversold Rebound, Crucial Catalyst Tomorrow)

The sector has been adjusting for over a month and saw a strong rebound today.

Driving factors:
1. Technically oversold, requiring a rebound.
2. Blue Arrow's Zhuque-2 is scheduled to re-fly at 12:00 on March 19th in Jiuquan, providing a clear event catalyst.

Currently still defined as an oversold rebound, not a reversal.
Tomorrow's launch result is crucial. The core bottleneck for commercial aerospace remains recovery technology. Success or failure directly affects expectations for a second wave of 行情。
In the medium to long term, a breakthrough in recovery is inevitable, and the industry chain has huge potential.