$Figma(FIG.US) issued at $33, soared to $85 on the first day, and touched a historical high of $143 on the second day. Then institutions sold off at high levels, and executives cashed out $35 million at $43 in November, leaving retail investors to watch the slide all the way down. After the lock-up expired in January, it directly plunged to $19.8, an 81% drop from the high, even breaking the IPO price.

But the fundamentals haven't collapsed: Q4 revenue was $303.8M, up 40% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. Full-year guidance is $1.37B, with a growth rate of 30%, and gross margin is stable at 85%. In March, they just started charging for AI features based on usage, a new revenue engine. The risks are real too: There's another big lock-up expiration in August, and VC holdings haven't been fully sold off yet. The AI toolchain is slowly eroding its use cases.

Now at $27, the analyst average target is $52, the upside looks significant, but whether it can hold before August is a question. Is it bargain hunting or catching a falling knife?