If he wins, there's nothing to say; if he loses (forced into a protracted war), Trump actually wins too. He could trigger stagflation and directly blame the Fed, saying, 'See, I've been calling for a 100% interest rate cut all along, it's the Fed's persistent hawkish opposition that caused the unexpected inflation.' In the end, the Fed would also become a tool of the Trump administration.
It's actually about nuclear power. You can insist on adding oil, but if you take that as the main axis for deduction, there's no geopolitics at all. Even oil might be a later issue. It's been found that Venezuela is taken out, Iran is taken out, because the Gulf countries that were restrained by Iran are released, and ninety percent of the oil is taken out for you.
Iran has a flank, called 3H, because all three start with the letter H. Read some history and geography; then, below is the Gulf of Aden area, and the Houthis have been attacking this place all along.
The main body of the Islamic world is centered on Iran, then goes to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, etc., and then in the area of Afghanistan and Pakistan, this side is all Islamic, right? Down to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the entire Arabian Peninsula is Islamic. The upper left corner of Africa, from Sudan to Egypt, all the way to the left, Libya and these to the far left, a huge area, all Islamic.
Islamic countries, we say there are actually three types. The first is called an Islamic state. What is an Islamic state? It is ruled by Islamic law, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Afghanistan. It must have very strict Islamic law to be called an Islamic state. Some are called Muslim countries, where a lot of people believe in Islam, but they don't use Islamic law to rule. Some are more secular, like Turkey or Egypt. Their proportion in life is very high, the proportion of secularization is very high, so although they are part of the Islamic world, the degree of Islam is different.
Then there are the five major ethnic groups: Arabs, Turks, Persians, Jews, and Kurds, or you could say Kurdish people. Among the five major ethnic groups, four have a state. One doesn't, now claiming to have 35 million people. If the Kurds want to rise independently, they will definitely have to fight with them.
There's a small story. When old Bush fought back then, he beat Iraq half to death. He didn't completely destroy it, because if you destroy it, Iran rises. So this was a strategic misjudgment by the US.
But Iran is simple. Sunnis account for eighty percent. Whether it's Gulf countries or other Middle Eastern countries, the remaining one or two percent are Shia, mainly in Iran. If you let Iran have nuclear power, the surrounding countries definitely won't be willing, so the US isn't willing either.
And Iran itself, its internal society actually has divisions, for example, the Kurdish people mentioned just now.
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